Summer Duldrums….
July 12th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
It’s SUMMER and it’s telling on the real estate market.
Normally at this time of year people who want to buy are out in full force looking and planning to move, and if they have kids, registered in their new school. They want to get over with before school starts.
But the economy has many people concerned about jobs so the norm has changed.
Until unemployment shows signs of decreasing (which it is not); until there are more new jobs being created (which isn’t the case); and the general public show strong confidence in the economy (people are perplexed and are tending to decrease spending); the real estate market will tend to go sideways with a bias to the upside.
Talk of another stimulus package if done correctly could work. What is a correct solution?
Allow zero income taxes, social security and medicare taxes for approximately 6-9 months and the economy will get legs.
This will get money into the hands of the consumer and small businesses and things will start to correct itself.
However I would suspect that consumers will ploy the increase in their paychecks into savings and business will utilize the funds in more advertising and marketing.
Then there will be the problme of weaning the taxpayer back to paying these taxes after not paying them for 6-9 months.
Also States and Federal government will have significantly less revenue coming in for a substantial period causing further lay offs in the public sector of the economy and further cuts in budgets.
But putting the money into the hands of wage earners and especially small businesses will yield better results than the first stimulus package which went basically to government entities and large banks. The net result stimulus #1 hasn’t yielded anything.
Humor For The Week:
GETTING OLD (Source: Star Dusters Newsletter, July 2009).
I’ve sure gotten old! I’ve had two bypass surgeries, a hip replacement, new knees, fought prostate cancer and diabetes. I’m half blind, can’t hear anything quieter than a jet engine, take 40 different medications that make me dizzy, winded, and subject to blackouts. Have bouts with dementia. Have poor circulation; hardly feel my hands and feet anymore. Can’t remember if I’m 85 or 92. Have lost all my friends.
But, thank God, I still have my driver’s license.
JUST A FUNNY (Submitted by Peggy Guyer to Lockheed Star Duster)
A Minneapolis couple decided to go to Florida to thaw out during a particularly icy winter. They planned to stay at the same hotel where they spent their honeymoon 20 years earlier.
Because of hectic schedules, it was difficult to coordinate their travel schedules. So, the husband left Minnesota and flew to Florida on Thursday, with his wife flying down the following day.
The husband checked into the hotel. There was a computer in his room, so he decided to send an e-mail to his wife.
However, he accidentally left out one letter in her e-mail address, and without realizing his error, sent the email.
Meanwhile somewhere in Houston, a widow had just returned home from her husband’s funeral.
He was a minister who was called home to glory following a heart attack. The widow decided to check her e-mail expecting messages from relatives and friends. After reading the first message, she screamed and fainted.
The widow’s son rushed into the room, found his mother on the floor, and saw the computer screen which read:
To: My Loving Wife
Subject: I’ve Arrived
Date: January 13, 2006
I know you’re surprised to hear from me.
They have computers here now and you are allowed to send e-mails to your loved ones. I’ve just arrived and have been checked in.
I see that everything has been prepared for your arrival tomorrow. Looking forward to seeing you then!
Hope your journey is as uneventful as mine was.
P. S. Sure is freaking hot down here.
My Musing For The Week:
A great deal of print and TV discussions focused on taxing the rich re., the universal health program being discussed in Washington.
When we run out of rich people who pays? And who determines what rich is?
Oh and I see that Al Gore made a comment this week which was “the Climate bill (now being discussed in Washington) will help bring about “Global Governance”.
It is not cap and trade but global governance.
Which brings me to a note by Thomas Paine in which he stated ” …..is the irresistible nature of truth that all it asks, and all it wants, is the liberty of appearing.”
This was expanded upon by Dr. Wayne Dyer in his book Excuses Begone!, is that truth only wants to show up; it doesn’t wish to overwhelm or rule us. So let’s allow ” the irresistible nature of truth” to make its appearance right now.
Our politicians would have difficulty with this wouldn’t you say?
Ventura County
Quiet. That sums up the activity for this week. Perhaps its because summer is now being felt or perhaps people are hunkering down.
People are nervous. They want to buy BUT will they have a job? Companies are continuing to decrease their work force; new jobs are not being created; so it is understandable that consumer confidence is “iffy” at this time.
Ventura County unemployment is continuing to go up and a number of businesses are taking steps to reduce employees because people are not spending and are salting away their money (saving).
This scenerio has to change before Ventura County real estate takes off.
To be sure the market is doing well under the circumstances and will continue to show appreciation, but at a slower rate.
The economy, new jobs and consumer confidence are needed to right the ship. Oh yes…..less political interference would bode well for everyone….but that isn’t going to occur.
The overall market in Ventura County is a “buyer’s” market. Home sale prices continue to show signs of increasing but there is a lag in sales (summer duldrums perhaps).
As noted in the table above there has been a 23% increase in sales but this increase rate has been diminishing over the last several weeks. At one time it had been above 35%.
Much has been said of interest rates….yes they are below 5%. BUT buyers need to have 20% down and a back end ratio or 41% or less to even start talking to banks about a mortgage. What is a back end ratio? This is simply taking all of your fixed monthly obligations (new mortgage, taxes, auto payments, other fixed loans, etc) and dividing your gross monthly into the above total. If it is 41% or less banks will start talking to you.
The other factor that has disturb the market is low ball appraisals. This appears to be correcting itself but it continues to undo a number of real estate transactions.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Real Estate Is Starting To Sparkel Too…..
July 5th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
We are celebrating our 4th of July and many of us witnessed the sparkles in the night sky to remind us of our Country’s birthday.
As with the Country’s birthday real estate is now showing signs of sparkles as well.
Not with the dazzle of what we saw in the night sky on the 4th. It is somewhat more mute in the market place but the amber’s are there and when this side-way activity is complete there will a significant acceleration upward in home prices.
Items contributing to this price acceleration will include:
1. Of course there is the pent up demand that will make itself felt.
2. Cost faced by sellers to make their single family homes “green”.
On the surface it would seem that sellers will have to eat this added cost. But if Economics 101 taught us anything eventually these cost will passed through to the buyer’s thereby increasing prices.
How “green” green will be is any-one’s guess but in California one could expect that seismic upgrades may be required; perhaps solar panels and independent electric home grids; dual-pane windows; and who knows what else the Federal and State bodies will include.
What will probably happen is what I mentioned a number of years ago….we will have a two class society…..one owning property and those who do not and cannot because of the cost.
There most certainly will be an outcry for affordable housing but the conditions being applied will go counter to what is intended.
Ventura County.
The sideways action still continues with the County as a whole showing itself to be a seller’s market.
Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula and Fillmore are all seller markets. The Conjo Valley and Ojai/Oak View remain neutral. Buyer markets continue in the Santa Rosa Valley and the Beach communities.
Sales since the beginning of the year total 3,869 single family homes. This is a 26% increase for a comparable period in 2008.
Prices have been inching upward since November/December, 2008 and it appears that in June, 2009 (see abbreviatedtable below) that the average home sale increased quite a bit. This trend (see monthly % column) was started about November/December, 2008 and has continued through June. This trend has to continue for the next few months to create the base required for accelerated prices.
Be aware of hiccups. There is the 2nd wave of mortgage problems coming onto the market; unemployment continues to be a problem; and new job creation is nil. But history has shown that the real estate market has plowed through these challenges and showed significant home prices.
When can one see these accelerated prices starting to take effect. Probably the latter part of 2010, early 2011. Between now and then there will be some meandering to the upside until 2013 then watch out.
I picture something like the following curve that will come into play. As you can see prices in 2018-2020 will have double those witnessed in the 2005-2006 time frame.
Who says real estate is not a good investment!
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The Elephant Is Moving…..
June 28th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Ever so slowly the real estate is starting to move upward.
Politics will play a hand which will delay the acceleration of price movement but eventually the market will march to its own music.
This upward movement is not only occurring in Ventura County but is taking place throughout the United States.
For investors I am still recommending Oklahoma (Oklahoma City and Enid); Texas and I still recommend that one keeps an eye on Michigan. I will go into more detail for investment properties in my annual review which will be available in July.
As can be noted in the Table below this past week was the first time in many months that listings have increasedin Ventura County. Previously there was a steady decline. This may be just an blip of an occurrence but it stood out.
As noted in this blog over the last several months prices are starting to creep upward. Nothing dynamic but the prices are solidifying the base that has been in effect since November, 2008.
There will be some sideways price activity over the next several months but the worse is over. In fact it has been reported recently that appreciation in Ventura County stands at 5.8% since the beginning of the year. You will note on the chart above that one should expect an 8.7% increase for 2009. In 2010 the appreciation will increase to 17.9%.
The two things needed for the real estate market to really explode upward are new job creation and a significant decrease in unemployment (neither of will happen for a few months). Why? Taxes and added government cost to employers via health care coverage.
There needs to be another element in play before real estate gets it legs and that is consumer confidence which at this time appears to be getting positive.
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Things Might Be Better Then…..
June 21st, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
- You thought you were safe. Those with high credit scores may be in for a shock….someone can steal your identity. The following article is worth the reading. If you do not protect yourself no one else will. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/YourCreditRating/High-credit-scores-Be-careful.aspx
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U.S. Postal System: RIP
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Posted Jun 15 2009, 06:05 AM by Douglas McIntyre. http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/?fpn=u%20s%20postal%20system%20rip. This articlediscusses the demise of the postal system as we know it because of broad band and other electronics medias that are now on the drawing board. It is not going to occur over night but it will happen. The Internet is about to claim another victim.
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Noted in the United Kingdom were some large supermarkets in England are now getting into the banking business. I wonder when that is going to come over to the States.
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In an article read this week…..”Appraisals Roil Real Estate Deals” (Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2009 by James Hagerty and Ruth Simons)…..the authors note that very conservative estimates on homes is making refinancing and selling extremely difficult. With banks now in charge of appraisals (per se) is akin to the fox acting as a guard in the chicken coop. Home prices (at least for the time being) will be controlled by banks and not the market. “Since the code bars loan officers, mortgage brokers and real estate agents from any role in selecting appraisers, this has encouraged lenders to outsource the selection to appraisal-management companies which take a sizable cut of the appraisal fee. As a result, appraisers are under pressure to do it faster, do it cheaper (quote from article).” And just watch what happens with multiple appraisals. Multiple appraisals will take place if the buyer elects to switch lenders because of better deal. It will be surprising to see if each appraisal comes in around the same value. To minimize this cost the Mortgage Bankers Association is looking into the possibility to make the appraisal “portable” from one lender to another. We shall see.
National Real Estate.
It appears that prices are starting to change direction….upward. Still overall the market is still trying to get legs. It is taking longer largerly due to high unemployment in some areas and the continued lack of new jobs creation.
Ventura County.
One word: SLOW. But prices are edging upward. Overall sales in Ventura County are 28% higher (comparing periods Jan. 1 thru June 20 for the years 2008 and 2009). Overall Ventura County is a seller’s market but there are areas such as Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura and Oxnard Beaches that still remain buyer markets.
The Conejo Valley and Ojai/Oak View remain neutral while the areas of Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula and Fillmore are seller markets. In fact there were no recorded sales in Fillmore over the last week which I find interesting (but not unusual).
Unemployment and job creation need to come into line for the real estate market to get legs. It will go up on its own but very slowly. Many people are staying put and waiting the market out. The “squeeze effect”, as I call it.
When the market gets legs, watch out.
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There Are Bigger Things To ……
June 7th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Every once in awhile it is time to get some perspective. This photo from MSN puts things into some context.
There are bigger things for us to see, investigate and challenge. Life here on Earth is great; out there who knows! But we will go and find out. Why? We are humans and it is in our bones (oops! our DNA) to face up to challenges.
My musing for the week. Lao-tzu who lived 2,500 years ago wrote “Every human being’s essential nature is perfect and faultless, but after years of immersion in the world we easily forget our roots and take on a counterfeit nature”.
That is state we are in today. We have forgotten our roots.
The National Real Estate Market.
Things are turning good so says the late media coverage. Change has been happening since November, 2008 but now constructive signs have emerged showing that things are on the upswing.
Looking at the most recent government view of the National real estate market one can see that the East coast and of course Nevada, Arizona and California continue to be under pressure.
Other States in the Central region also appear to be under some minor pressure. States such as Nebraska, Kansas, etc., have declined but others such as Michigan, Illinois to name a few have shown signs of improvement.
The driver for a healthy real estate market is financing and the banks have been struggling on a number of fronts to get the real estate financing righted. But it takes time. The other thing that will help real estate is lower unemployment, new job creation and less help from Washington, DC. When Congress gets involved all things fall apart.
When looking at the real estate market (first quarter of 2008) approximately one year ago every State has had a declined except for Alaska. It is the only State that has shown appreciation throughout Country over the last year.
This is the 1st quarter, 2009 National Real Estate Market.
This what the market looked like in fourth quarter of 2008.
This was the picture of the National real estate market in the 1st quarter of 2008.
Ventura County.
The squeeze continues.
Listings continue to decrease; sales are now decreasing; markets in Santa Paula and Oxnard show minimal inventory while the beach area show significant inventory.
Fillmore, Santa Paula, Camarillo, Oxnard, Ventura and Simi Valley/Moorpark are now showing as seller areas. One would expect to see prices starting to increase in these areas shortly.
The Santa Rosa Valley, Oak View/Ojai and the beach areas are buyer markets. The Conejo Valley is neutral at this time.
Prices are showing signs of increasing. As one can expect it appears that the lower end price range properties have been absorbed; there is some preliminary sales evidence suggesting that properties in the $ 400,000 to $ 750,000 are now attracting buyers.
The following table indicates some price upswing. It is preliminary and a few more months are needed to show a trend but there is some evidence that price appreciation may now be taking place.
The monthly value % does note that the lost in home equity has started to decrease and compared to November, 2008, there has been a 50% increase in property values in the County. Some will see this as a 50% decrease in the loss of property value but the bottom line is that the market has changed and November, 2008 appears to have been the bottom of the down cycle.
Now if unemployment and new jobs are created in Ventura County everything will be super great to have a significant advance.
I expect to see the growth rate following the chart below. So hang on…..it is going to be a lot of fun.
As noted in the last illustration we are now entering into the gold run up. We are certainly blessed to live in this area of the Country. Ventura County home prices are set to explode.
There will be many people who will become millionaires from the real estate they purchased during the down turn.
Those that want to become millionaires should be buying now because if you don’t you will have to wait for another 10-12 years before the cycle starts again.
Comments are welcomed.
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We Got What We Wished For….It Isn’t Very Nice!
May 24th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
My musing for the past several weeks.
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California voters (small number) decided enough was enough. Politicians on the other hand have concluded that voters don’t know what they want so “enough is enough” probably won’t fly. The next step is to replace the politicians. We did that by replacing Gov. Davis a number of years ago basically because of increased DMV fees. Well guess what….we not only have increased DMV fees but a lot of other fees. We also have to manage the activities of the non-elected deal brokers.
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Is California going to be the 1st State to declare bankruptcy?
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It appears that the brightest are leaving California. It is also being talked about that our school system is in the toilet. Funny how people outside of California have seen this, the general population has seen this but the politicians and teacher unions have not. Hmmmm….a pause here.
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I also see the blame game setting in. A number of reporters are starting to say that the voters are the culprits for the problems in California. The initiatives that have been passed over the last 10-20 years were not thought out by the voters who “want things but do not want to pay for them”. Well part of that is true but what isn’t being said is that these same newspapers made recommendations which many voters followed. Many voters think that newspapers are above the fray and make their recommendations based on what is good for society. Well it’s the dumb following the dumber.
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Ms. California stuck to her beliefs (whether you agree or disagree with her) which is a strength that many of us have given up. Look at the current situation. When the current administration speaks all others fall in line…..money is such a strong tool. The only thing that is piling up higher is the BS we are getting from Washington.
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Talking about blame game…..the Washington day time drama is a reality sage. He said, she said! Torturing….I didn’t know; I wasn’t told…..what are these people there for. Lots of excuses. Definitely need replacements in Washington at all levels of Government.
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Talk about adding to the stress. A number of lenders will now verify appraisals 3 days prior to the Note date and require the borrower to sign the HVCC Disclosure-Appraisal Notification and Acknowledgement. Yikes what does the seller do if they disagree with the appraisal. I can see “out of area” appraisers continuing to slam local values. I can also see a large number of law suits.
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I haven’t seen much in capping salaries of late. I wonder why? Hollywood stars, sport figures, television news casters, anybody making over $ 250,000 per year……what are they thinking? Cap and tax……could it be????????
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I see that my home State (New Jersey) finally has the lead in something (speeding tickets). Based on the article http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourCar/Worst-states-for-drivers.aspx and the chart created by the National Motorist Association listed below are the worst to best States for speeding tickets. So Jersey travelers be on the alert. I was surprise that California was not in the top 5 States, but give them time….they will get there.
National Motorists Association rankings, from worst to best:
| Rank | State | Rank | State | Rank | State |
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| 1 | New Jersey | 18 | Florida | 35 | Hawaii |
| 2 | Ohio | 19 | Pennsylvania | 36 | Arkansas |
| 3 | Maryland | 20 | North Carolina | 37 | Alaska |
| 4 | Louisiana | 21 | Alabama | 38 | Kansas |
| 5 | New York | 22 | Rhode Island | 39 | Mississippi |
| 6 | Illinois | 23 | West Virginia | 40 | Wisconsin |
| 7 | Delaware | 24 | New Hampshire | 41 | Utah |
| 8 | Virginia | 25 | Arizona | 42 | South Dakota |
| 9 | Washington | 26 | New Mexico | 43 | Indiana |
| 10 | Massachusetts | 27 | Missouri | 44 | Minnesota |
| 11 | Colorado | 28 | Texas | 45 | North Dakota |
| 12 | Oregon | 29 | Oklahoma | 46 | Kentucky |
| 13 | Tennessee | 30 | Nevada | 47 | Nebraska |
| 14 | California | 31 | Georgia | 48 | Montana |
| 15 | Michigan | 32 | Connecticut | 49 | Idaho |
| 16 | Vermont | 33 | South Carolina | 50 | Wyoming |
| 17 | Maine | 34 | Iowa |
- From the perspective of one economist the recession may be over.
As bad as it seems today, according to Robert J. Gordon, an acclaimed macro-economist and professor at Northwester University, we’ve lived through worse, and not all that long ago.
It was a lot worse in 1981-82, too, because the size of the work force was smaller then. So the same number of claims represents a larger percentage. Adjusted for the size of the work force, today’s claims are just a little more than half of what they were at the 1982 peak. The recession? It’s over! Read the following article which the author researched to verify his agreement with the professor. Interesting reading. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/the-recession-it-is-over-economist-says.aspx
One thing jumps out of the chart that has nothing to do with Gordon’s indicator — the fact that in this recession, we still haven’t exceeded the number of claims in the 1981-82 recession.
The National Real Estate Market.
The areas that have been my focus for investments have fared rather well during this real estate down turn (Oklahoma, Louisiana and Texas (although Texas has had more damage occurring over the last several months).
The latest Federal Housing Finance Agency report show that these States (shown as West South Central) as having a negative appreciation of -0.5%. The other sector (East South Central which I also like) had a negative appreciation rate of -3.0%. California (the Pacific area) is experiencing a -22.1% negative appreciation.
Ventura County Real Estate.
Things are looking brighter and the market is getting stronger.
Mentioned a number of times is the jack-in-the-box scenario that is forming now.
Listings have decreased significantly over the last 18 months (from 5,250 in November 10,2007 down to 2,069 as of May 23, 2009: approximately a 50% decrease).
Sales in Ventura County have increased 32% in 2009 compared to the same comparable period of 2008.
This year there have been 2,852 sales for the period January 1 through May 23, 2009; for the same period in 2008, there were 2,161 sales.
There is a squeeze occurring. We have a commodity (homes) and there is a pent up demand for this commodity and as soon as the jack-in-the-box is opened prices will accelerate big time.
Ventura County areas that are now seller markets consist of Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula, and just recently Fillmore.
Areas that remain buyer markets consist of Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura Beaches, Oxnard Beaches and the Ojai/Oak View area. Conejo Valley is neutral.
For Ventura County the plot thickens. Unemployment and job creation will be necessary to see a healthy real estate market. The market will start to go up but the pace of the upturn is dependent on jobs and a decrease in unemployment. If jobs continue to lag and unemployment increases or stays high the market will go side-ways for a period of time but the bottom (in general) has been set.
Comments are welcomed.
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People Are Talking….
May 10th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
On this Mothers Day it 
appears that real estate is a good topic to talk about since the indicators now have been accepted by the media.
Good press from news outlets is also creating positive vibes for the market.
To be sure the politicians will play the game but when push comes to shove they had little to do with the change in direction.
The market would be doing the same with or without them. One should be concern that the politicians will once again stick their nose into the system and screw things up.
The good intentions of a home in every pot did not work out. In fact a great many people have been hurt with this political folly. But intentions aside the system is going back to hard nose business basics and this will continue for several more years and then the follies will start over again.
There will be some significant economic events that will slow the market but it will not create a free fall as had been the case over the last few years.
Economic events that will slow the market:
- gasoline will go back up to $ 4.50 or higher. Throughout the World and in the United States, oil people are not drilling, plant capacity increases have been shelved.
- Food prices will sky rocketbecause of ethanol and less planting in the farm land. Politicians know this is a folly but want to continue the folly to satisfy constituents and save face. Ethanol has been shown to be a pollutant but the folks in Washington have too much invested to yield to common sense today.
- Environmental costs (cap and trade) will be a hideous tax on the United States with most other Nations giving lip service but basically by-passing this issue.
- California is going to the brink of bankruptcy. It’s a matter of wills but Sacramento will realize that unless significant cuts are made they will be out of a job.
The National real estate market will continue to plod upward because States and local agencies need to have real estate do good to collect taxes.
Ventura County.
The Ventura County real estate market as evidence by the table below is doing well. There will be hiccups but it appears that the base has been settled. We should continue to witness an increase in sales but it will take a little longer for prices to start upward. One will see sales continue to make a V shape configuration while prices will follow a U shape configuration for the next several months.
This table also notes that the Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Santa Paula and Fillmore areas as seller markets. The Conejo Valley and Camarillo are neutral and the other areas (Ventura Beaches, Oxnard Beaches and the Oak View/Ojai) are buyer markets.
Overall the County is a neutral market and has an average 4 months inventory.
Unemployment and the lack of job creation in the County will cause a side-ways motion until the last quarter of 2009.
Job creation is going to be a zinger. Large and medium size businesses will be facing significant increases in employee health care and taxes. This does bode well for job creation. Visit My Musings Of The Week and I think you will get a sense of what is in store.
What may help is the significant increase in sole proprietor-ships and federal, state and local governments hiring.
However the public sector is over weighing the economics of scale and eventually there will be a drastic decreases in head count as time marches on.
The general public and the private sector will not be able to shoulder the burden and all sort of changes will take place which will not be very pleasant for a lot of people.
Expect big changes in educations and State government headcounts. The tea party is set to begin.
This next chart (below) shows the distribution of single family residential sales in the County for the period of January 1, 2009 through May 9, 2009. Approximately 25% of the homes sold in the County in this time period fell into the price range of $ 300,001 to $ 400,000. 65% of all single family homes sold in the County was for $ 400,000 or less.
75% of the homes sold in Oxnard were below $ 300,000; 82% of the homes sold in Fillmore and Santa Paula were below $ 300,000. These communities accounted for 37% of all sales in the County for the period ending May 9, 2009.
Periodically I will update this chart but I suspect significant changes towards the upper price ranges towards the latter part of this year.
The projection that had been made last September, 2008 http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/09/07/ventura-county-real-estate-doings-for-week-ending-september-6-2008/ appears to be on track.
Illustrated in the September, 2008 article was the Ventura County Forecast through the year 2022.
As noted it is expected that the previous highs (2003-2005) will be exceeded by at least 50% or more in Ventura County. Those living within 25 miles of the ocean can expect higher appreciation.
As mentioned earlier the U configuration price jumps will really show up around the year 2014 and then watch out.
There have been many homes withdrawn from the market place over the last several years waiting for better prices. Listings have continued downward so in effect what is happening is a “spring” effect will take place allowing prices to surge upward as shown above. Standard economics 101, supply and demand.
Your comments are welcomed.
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My musings of the week!
May 8th, 2009 Categories: In Case You Missed It---
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Swine flu. There was talk that we should close the border because of this flu. Why can’t the border be closed to stop illegals entering the country or to stop drugs or arms. I wonder if our political people are talking with a fork tongue? Bully Pulpit. It is interesting reading to see the steps being taken in schools to minimize bullying amongst students. Various penalties are imposed including dismissal. When the bullying occurs from the White House what are the penalties being imposed? Certainly our press corps has been very quiet regarding the bully bully activity going on in this Administration. It sets the stage for other Presidents to do the same or more. If it is decided by some President that the press should write things as determined by Washington, I wonder if the press will be more vocal then? Well I am certainly out of focus….this is being done already. Interesting don’t you think? From all indications it appears that this Administration and Congress want all people teetered to the whims of the government. This appears to be the same attitude of State governments and local governments. There is an attitude that people must live in fear simply because a few lunatics want to take over the way we live. If you object to this, look in the mirror because you may be the reason it is happening! To make the point. I live in a small town. A lady wanted to build herself a restaurant but the City Planners made her add retail shops (I suspect it for the best use of land, etc). A similar action was taken with an individual who wanted to build an apartment complex. They had to add retail shops. In this second case none of the shops are occupied and haven’t been since the complex was built about one year ago. Who is responsible for keeping these shops occupied and is this lady or the apartment builder being re-reimbursed for something they do not want? I do not think so and if they are why isn’t it public policy to tell the citizens what is being done and why. General Motors. I cannot believe I heard this. Since the Union has basically taken over General Motors there is the consideration that many of the GM cars will be built overseas. Excuse me….what happened to “built in the USA” fan fare. Management looks for the cheapest way to produce and stay competitive. Political Dismay. California politicians are besides themselves seeing that the various measures being proposed appear to be losing. Well being honest in the beginning may have been the better course of action. So why politicians think (based on what has happened in California over the last 10-15 years) that we should believe them today is beyond me. When our friends in Sacramento see money that is an open invitation to spend. As far as they are concern, everyday is a rainy day. What we should do is replace all of them and start fresh. Let’s take the steps the Federal government took with General Motors CEO. The Federal government got rid of him. If it is good to take this action in the private sector why not the public sector. Keep replacing until we think we have the right one’s in office. We will get it right one of these days. Today politics appears to be a criminal activity at all levels. Grade Schools. I see that PE is changing drastically in grade school. It appears that competitive sports is being down played, being replaced with activities that has no winners or losers. That appears to be the template for our schools overall. There are never any winners or losers. I heard it said (Peter Drucker) that he thought the school system in the United States will unravel which it appears now to be doing. Just read the papers to see the hoops that one has to do to fire incompetent teachers. ID Risk Level. You may surprise yourself. I received this from a young lady in Illinois. Find out your test score and see if you have to take some action to protect yourself.
How Did You Score?
If your score is Very High Risk, hire and pay a legal representative, security personnel, CPA, and whomever that will monitor and protect you and your family 24 hours, 7 days a week from being a victim of ID theft or simply contact John Duffner at johnduffner@hotmail.com and ask what is available to give you some means of protection at a reasonable price. Kids Names: Another item that interested me are baby names. Here is a listing of the top ten boy/girl names based on 2008 statistics:
The Top 10 names for baby boys:
I lost a friend. He was a shoe maker, very outspoken, but very good hearted. He and I at times would exchange stories of our experiences with heart surgery since we both were operated on within months of each other. Or we regaled each other with stories of what we did in the service (he was Army; I the Marines) and what our kids were doing. When Jess lost his wife a few years ago it took the spring from him but he remained occupied, always opening the shop, and I would stop by to complain about nothing. He will be missed. Your comments are welcomed. |
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Watching Grass Grow!
April 26th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
The real estate market is just meandering; setting its base for the next cycle upward.
Much has been written over the last week of mortgage help. It appears that banks are just starting to get into the mortgage business however it appears that only 1 in 11 will be able to get help.
That means the other 10 people will probably go into foreclosure.
So be ready for another round of foreclosures will be coming to fruition in the next several weeks.
The financial sector is still trying to find its legs. Business is not creating new jobs at this time but it appears that government jobs are increasing significantly.
Unemployment is hovering around 11% but surprisingly not many government jobs at any level has been impacted. The stimulus money that States want appears to be a justification of increasing their payroll base.
There is a lot of BS going on in government with deflective stories being written to turn people’s attention away from our economic problems and creating bigger government.
Words uttered by any Federal or State representative should put one on guard.
What is being said is to make people feel good; what is being done will make people sorry and at a point they think there isn’t anything they can do.
An example is the “rainy day set aside” proposal that California will vote on this May. Sounds good to set something aside. It makes one think that someone is taking steps to do something right. But politicians being politicians when they see ”rainy day” funds they will justify taking of these funds for some other cause. There goes ”rainy day” funds.
So like Social Security which was set up as a set aside fund, later when monies were needed, its money was used, replaced by notes. I suspect this “rainy day” proposal is of the same vintage. As stated earlier, politicians say things that sound good; but later is when you really recognize what they really wanted to do.
We can start by removing those in office now and replacing them with new blood that understand and can manage the needs of the Country. We have too much “good ole boy” goings on throughout the Country. It is time to change to something better. As a first step maybe we should start “recalls” now, replacing Federal and State representatives. That clean house each two years.
As mentioned last week if you don’t like them remove them. Recalls is a start.
I found it interesting that the Congress had sessions relating to earth warming. The interesting part was they would not allow any rebuttal or opposite views to be heard at these sessions. Meaning: our minds are made up and this is the way it is going to go.
That will be a healthy tax for America. Who controls this. Our friends overseas. We pay and they make the rules. Seems only fair????
Ventura County
The County real estate is continuing its base building. Listings continue downward; discounts continue and it appears that the County inventory is neutral will a bias towards becoming a sellers market.
Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura and Oxnard Beaches and the Ojai/Oak View areas are still buyer’s markets.
Simi Valley/Moorpark, Oxnard, Santa Paula and Fillmore appear to be sellers marketswith the Conejo Valley and Camarillo currently being neutral.
Overall there has been a 35% increase in sales in 2009 compared to the same period of 2008. Areas showing significantly higher sales this year is Oxnard (114% increase); followed by Santa Paula, Fillmore and the Ojai/Oak View area.
The areas lagging 2008 residential sales are Santa Rosa and Conejo Valley.
The County real estate appreciation for the next 12 months will be 8.7% growth; we will witness a 17.9% growth over the next 24 months; and a 25.6% growth over the next 36 months.
Increase in unemployement and lagging job creation can dampened these growth rates slightly but overall it appears these appreciation rates that can be expected.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Home Valuation Code of Conduct….More Government Interferance. Just What We Need!
April 24th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
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