Archive for the 'Real Estate News' Category
One Down; Three To Go!
March 1st, 2010 Categories: Real Estate News
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
The Ventura County real estate market (like many parts of the country) will simply go sideways for the next several months until the job market starts upward. No jobs; limited real estate sales. Thank you Barney Frank and Chris Dodd and the rest of good old boy network in Washington that created this housing mess.
The tempo is turning and people and time are unforgiving. One can expect a significant shift in Washington starting now but definitely in November, 2010. The “newbies” being elected will have to start running from the very beginning because people are clamoring for work and a ”keep it the same” Congress will not be tolerated.
There will be a resuffle in the White House, Senate and House. President Obama (unless he does a 180 degree turn) will be a one term president. More importantly there will be big changes in State legislative bodies throughout the United States.
Expect significant layoffs in the public sector (Federal and State). Tarp monies have been spent to keep public sector employees employed but that has run its course and the ax is ready to fall.
Ventura County has shown very limited, if any growth in home prices over the last year. It appears that the bottom of the market was set in March, 2009 and since then appreciation stands at 20.7% from that bottom through February 28, 2010. The month to month appreciation from January to February, 2010 was 1.3%.
Since the March, 2009 bottom the market has been saw-toothing from the low of $ 384,976 (average home sales price) to the recent uptick in February, 2010 of $ 464, 079 average sales price. It is expected that this will continue with a bias to the upside for the next several months (through November, 2010).
Noted in the charts below are the monthly sales with average list/sales prices; a breakdown of sales by area; and lastly sales by price range.
Sales by Month.
Sales by Ventura County area.
Sales by Price Range.
Keep in mind that these are preliminary numbers; it takes about 6 months to have all the numbers settle down to actual figures.
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Getting LEGS????? Maybe!
November 4th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
The Ventura County real estate market once again reversed course to the upside in October,2009.
It appears that the real estate market wants to get legs BUT other economic issues stand in the way.
The table below shows that approximately 75% of Ventura County home sales have occurred in the price range below $ 500,000, with 2955 single family homes selling between $ 200,000 to $ 400,000.

Investors and 1st time home-buyers took advantage of prices and tax credits.
There was a niche market of properties selling between $ 1,000,000 to $ 1,500,000. This represented approximately 4% of the sales in Ventura County.
The following table shows price trends in the County. Of significance is apprciation in Ventura County approximated 16% for the 1st 10 months of 2009. The monthly price increase between September and October, 2009 approximated 7%. Not bad for a one month period.

It is too early to say that the trend in real estate is up. Since March, 2009 it has been basically sideways. The October uptick may suggest that despite the local and national economic woes real estate may do its own thing.
The September, 2009 down tick may have been a hic-cup in the overall trend but it does suggest that one be cautious before reading anything into the market. It may have been a warning.
Even with the warning one would expect that with high unemployment; lack of new job creation; new taxes on the horizon both Federal and State; the increase in State tax as a loan for the next several months; lack of consumer confidence…all of these singularly and collectively will temper the real estate uptrend.
BUT as of now it looks like the market wants to get LEGS!
Your comments are welcomed.
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Real Estate Contraction…..Ventura County.
September 20th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
Mentioned previously was the anticipated real estate contraction that is now occurring in Ventura County. It’s the clown in the box scenario that is taking place.
Listings continue to decrease (1932 last week; 1859 this week); sales however climbed and it is probably due to the paper work being delayed in recording sales therefore the prices which had been going down now appears to have stabilized over the last week.
The chart below summarizes the last weeks statistical numbers. However events that truly move the market are headed in the opposite direction.
The County’s high unemployment of 11+% certainly is a driving force impacting the real estate market. Lack of new jobs creation is another impact source. Consumer confidence is at a low point.
The media is attempting to make things look good but individual common sense tells the general population something else.
Attempts to detract from the economy are going full bore but when push comes to shove it’s the economy that most people dwell on. It’s their personal economy that takes priority.
Expected is the hammer to fall…..tax increases. This has to come about and most are dreading the outcome. To be sure most middle and upper level pay scales are going to be hit hard. This in and of itself will not impact the real estate market but it most certainly will take longer for the market to start its upward acceleration.

When the acceleration takes hold watch out. Prices will sky rocket. Then one will see that there will be a division in the population….those that own property and those that do not. The division will cause endless discussions and consternation.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Home Valuation Code of Conduct….More Government Interferance. Just What We Need!
April 24th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
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The Housing Package….A Summary
February 20th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
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The Enemy Becomes An Ally? With Change There Is HOPE!
January 19th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
The credit market has been the biggest enemy to real estate over the last several years. However the credit market appears to be on the verge of becoming stable and this bodes well for real estate.
Banks continue to drag their feet in making mortgage loans but this too is starting to unwind with continued prodding from the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve.
Billions have been poured into the system to make this happened which presents some interesting thoughts.
The media has written a great deal of high profile private market scams created and its impact on many people. Prosecutors do their thing in having these people jailed or under house arrest until their trial. There is portrayed the sense of injustice (which there is).
There is however little mention of public (government) mismanagement of the same ilk created by Congress (Mr. Dodd and Mr. Frank) with their concept of a “house in every pot”.
Scant media coverage has been directed to the government vehicle created to implement the process for this political fiasco…..Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
One would think that the various control mechanisms in place (prosecutors) would take steps to find out and punish those that created this mess. But those in charge of the controls are politically connected to the policy makers…..its a political society that does what it wants at any cost to the taxpayer, at any time, without fear or any accountability.
Who is to blame? The citizens. We are not vocal enough to right a wrong when it is made. We look the other way far too often. We play a part in the charade. We Have Lost Our Compass/
What is the cost of this Government (real estate) mismanagement to Ventura County? Sizable. Here is a rough idea of cost.
Over the last two years Ventura County has lost approximately $ 1.5 BILLION in home values (and this is a very conservative number). Multiply this by the number of Counties in California and then multiply by the other States/Counties and you have the cost of the political real estate fiasco fostered on us by Congress marshalled by Dodd and Frank just over a two year period. And now they head the committees that will legislate policy to get us out of this quagmire.
Things come in three’s so they say. After the waters settle expect double digit mortgage rates. Sooner or later this infusion of money has to be paid .
In the article hit-the-reset-button/ it was noted that it appears to be open season and money will flow. If anything gets done will be a miracle because there are no steps for accountability.
Schadenfreude. According to the dictionary “schadenfreude” is defined as the pleasurable emotion resulting from the misfortunes of others”.
When I first saw this term I thought it was a stretch until I started to think of the news and other media sources. And the term applies. Watching or listening there is the under tones of ’schadenfreude” in play. It has been quite evident during the credit down turn. But taking the people who created the problem to task has been mute.
Our news media both print and visual is a theater. There is no insightful investigation into problems or suggestions as to how to resolve these problems. Other avenues will fill the void (Internet?) maybe.
There is hope President Obama will resolve our problems. Some believe that he is going to end their mortgage payments, increase their income, and make everyone equal. That is not going to occur.
If he is treated with the disrespect and acrimony given President Bush by both Congress and the media we will face continued pickering and more of the same.
Let’s hope President Obama is given a chance. He is taking on a task that very few would undertake willingly.
We are faced with excessive government and its take over of major institutions. Russia and Venezuela are examples of what can occur. Once government senses its overall powers nothing will be left out. Governments have ravenous appetites to the detriment of its citizens.
To be sure President Obama best measures will not control the greed which will become grander with the willy-nelle released of monies without accountability. But he will do his best as a person as do all Presidents who have held that office.
Comments are welcomed.
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Year 2009 Fearless Forecast for Ventura County Real Estate.
December 14th, 2008 Categories: Real Estate News
The year of 2008 has been a disaster for Ventura County. As shown in the chart below areas that basically held their own were beach properties especially Ventura Beaches. Oxnard Beaches and the Santa Rosa Valley property decreased approximately 10%.
As stated previously owners of beach property are holding onto a gold mine. If you can keep it, do so. The rewards will be outstanding for you.
The inland areas of Santa Paula, Fillmore and Ojai were devastated with property decreases of approximately 50% or more.
Conejo Valley, Moorpark, Simi Valley and Ventura saw property values decreased approximately 25% overall.
Since July, 2008 the downward trend has accelerated significantly and this most often shows the signs of a bottom taking place (which I think has happened) Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s For Week Ending July 26 2008.
The year 2008 was not very kind to real estate.

What will real estate look like at the end of 2009. It appears that 2009 will be a better year with a growth rate of approximately 7.6%.
Two economic situations can change this forecast: unemployment and job creation. If unemployment increases significantly and there is no (or a decrease) in jobs then 2009 can be another disasters year for the County.
Expect unemployment to increase at State and Local levels. Companies will more than likely not increase hiring especially small companies. There will be some exceptions but companies may keep a lid on hiring until the last quarter of 2009.
Self employment will increase significantly.
Of greater importance is the consumer. For the first time in decades debt is being lowered, people are saving money, and people are not spending. This will not bode will for the overall economy.
See article Killer Debt Is Like Quick Sand where it is outlined how people can help themselves shred debt. It will take time but it can be done.
With the new administration one can expect tax increases, however these will not be noticeable until the end of 2009 and 2010. Then its’ a wait and see game.
The States will definitely increase taxes somewhere along the line, earlier than Federal. Hints of an increase in sales tax, auto registration and State income tax are already on the table.
Any increase in taxes will force people to lessen spending except for food and gasoline. Oh….a State gas tax increase is also on the table. Remember when gas was $ 4.00 per gallon. Well expect that again except in this case most of it will be attributed to State tax increases on gasoline.
Foreigners, especially from China, are in frenzy in their purchases of United States real estate.
Your comments are welcomed.
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It’s Not Pretty. Picture Review of The National Real Estate Market.
November 26th, 2008 Categories: Real Estate News
The real estate market has changed significantly over the last quarter and dramatically since the 4th quarter of 2007.
And with it, the National (and a number of regional) economy appears to be in the toilet.
Summarized on the United States real estate maps below is the reported 3rd quarter, 2008 reported National real estate market results issued by Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). For comparison I have included the real estate landscape of the 2nd quarter, 2008, the 1st quarter, 2008 with the last quarter, 2007 noted.
The southern States (Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama) continue to hold their own and continue to be good investment areas although they have weakened over the last quarter.
Another investment area to consider is Tennessee.
Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota are areas that one should view as investment areas. Especially North and South Dakota. But for me those States area TOO COLD. (Remember one of my conditions for real estate investment is to invest in areas that you may have to live in. Needless to say I prefer not having to live in the Dakota’s).
I have been reading various articles that perhaps Florida would be a good place but most guru’s suggest that 2010 is probably the year to start investing in this State. I have not been a fan of Florida so you are on your own regarding that State.
Washington and Utah (as expected), Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Mexico real estate have weakened somewhat decisively since the last quarterly report. Both Washington and Utah are expensive areas that make real estate investing a challenge. To break even or have a positive cash flow will mean a 30-50% down payment.
Arizona has reverted back to weakness. At the 2nd quarter, 2008 it appeared that it my have started back on the upswing but that was a false break out.
California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida negativity has doubled from the 1st quarter, 2008 to the 3rd quarter, 2008.
California in the 1st quarter, 2008 showed a negative growth of -10.6%. Now in the third quarter it is showing a -20.8 %. Nevada was a -20.9% up from -10.3%; Arizona earlier in the year was -5.1% and the 3rd quarter is accelerated to -13.5%. Finally Florida was -8.2% in the first quarter of 2008 and increased to -16% in the 3rd quarter of 2008.
Within California, the worse of the worse continues to be Merced; Stockton; Modesto; Salinas; Vallejo; Riverside; Bakersfield; Yuba City and Fresno.
Which prompts me to suggest that one should add California to their watch list. But getting investments at an extremely low price (about $ 125,000) will be difficult in California (if one wants to have a positive cash flow, with minimal down). Candidate areas for investment are the worse of the worse areas mentioned above.
It appears that high end homes (approximately $ 1 Million or more) have decreased approximately 20% during this down cycle, while homes valued at approximately $ 400,000 or less have decreased about 45%. This is quite a variance and I suspect that homes valued at less than $ 400,000 will accelerate upward faster within the next few months.
Help is coming. Mentioned in this blog on a number of occassions (the latest being get-in-line) is the disconnect between the Federal Reserve and banks regarding mortgage interest rates. But this disconnect appears to be have been spliced together and it now appears that mortgage rates will start falling to (are you ready) 5-5 1/4% rates (or less) shortly.
Side bar: The real estate market is one of the elements that will drive this economy. Upgrading the United States infra-structures for bridges, roads, water is the second leg that will help the economy upward. Manufacturing (autos being one) is the third element necessary to get the economy going upward.
A redirection of corn for ethenol should be reviewed. Sugar cane appears to be a better option to use for fuel use. Brazil is going wild developing this oil alternative. Sugar cane is not produced significantly in this country BUT we are smart and can grow anything. It becomes “is the price right”.
Side bar: (Be quite). Ventura County real estate has certainly decreased but not at the rate of most areas. In fact it has performed remarkedly well and it is expected to do extremely well over the next 4-5 years.
The damper to Ventura County real estate will be unemployment. Unemployment in the County is currently about 7+%. 5.5 % or less should be the target to have an extremely good real estate market.
Back to the subject. Pictured below is the 3rd quarter, 2008 picture of the National real estate market.

This is what the real estate market looked like at the end of the 2nd quarter, 2008.

This is the 1st quarter, 2008 real estate picture.

This was the appearance of the National real estate market at the 4th quarter of 2007.

Your comments please.
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Title Representation Changes…..
November 5th, 2008 Categories: Real Estate News
Effective January 1, 2009, SB 133 changes the way Title Marketing Representatives and Title Companies can solicit business in Californian.
Activities covered by the legislation are:
- Reps can no longer take a person out for lunch/dinner, drinks or entertain to market title insurance.
- Reps can no longer take people out to sporting events to market title insurance.
- Reps cannot pay for any advertising in newspapers, newsletter, magazines or publications on behalf of Industry participants.
- Reps cannot take photographs on behalf of Industry participants.
- Reps cannot create or provide any marketing materials on behalf of Industry participants.
- Reps cannot provide food or refreshments for any broker caravan, open house or any other function on behalf of an Industry participant.
- Reps cannot quote or charge any title or escrow fees below their company’s filed rate.
- Reps cannot distribute any items that have a specific monetary value, including gift cards, movie tickets, car washes, etc.
- Rep can provide educational classes and material exclusively related to the business of title insurance or escrow. Excluded are food and drinks during the seminar.
- Title Company employees are prohibited from using their own money to entertain customers.
- Reps may not engage in any prohibited activity through a separate entity controlled by the Rep or Rep’s employees.
- Reps will be required to be licensed by the Department of Insurance in California.
- Reps found in violation of the new law can be subject to fines, revoke of license and if license is revoked the Rep cannot apply for reinstatement of license for a period of 5 years.
For additional information on this law visit www.CLTA.org.
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Insurance—A Necessary Consideration for Real Estate Investments
October 25th, 2008 Categories: Real Estate Investment Notes, Real Estate News
Insurance that real estate investors should consider for rentals are listed below. By all means this should not be considered as a complete list. It is simply a “head start” to guide you in the right direction.
Of course cost is the final determination that will prevail when shopping for insurance, so shop as you find necessary and select what is required.
Just like a lighthouse land mark you want to have a safety net around your investment and your immediate assets.
Insurances to consider:

- Hazard Insurance
- Landlord’s Liability ($ 5,000,000) with Personal Injury Protection (an endorsement type of landlord’s liability).
- Dwelling/structure not covered by Association
- Wind and Flood Insurance
- Earthquake insurance
- Mold and bio-agent insurance
- Animal insurance protection
- Loss of rental income insurance
- Assessment (inadequate insurance obtained by association)
- Damage (a result of a legal liability for an event emanating from one’s unit)
- Discrimination Insurance
- Excess Liability Insurance
- Sewer line insurance (sewer line gets blocked and sewage backs up into residence or rental unit)
I also ask that if I have left something out do let me know. There may be an insurance that may be mandatory to have in specific locations (like flood insurance along coast lines).
Your comments are welcomed.
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