Archive for the 'Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County' Category
Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 30, 2008
August 31st, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Summer is slipping by, the football season has just started and we are blessed to have so many outlets to view and do in this area that it makes living here a great pleasure.
But I suspect if one dislikes sports it could be just the opposite.
However there is a bright side even if you do not like sports. There are outlets available to drown out politicians. That is worth something.
There has been positive news regarding the economy and real estate in particular.
Most news bits are now stating that it appears that the worse is behind us. Shortly almost everyone will be shouting from the roof tops of how good real estate is and then the cycle of gloom and doom will reappear.
A never ending cycle isn’t it.
Banks however are in the crossed hairs of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has indicated some displeasure with banks regarding interest rates and it is now taking the unusual steps of trying to find out why interest rates are not lower.
With all of the cuts exercised by the Reserve mortgage rates have not come down and this action by the banks exacerbates the mortgage problem. One has the feeling that banks are going to brought to task and will have to answer some questions.
Unfortunately this means more government intervention. Banks have not been cooperating. I suspect that will change.
However people do become their own worse enemy.
Reported in the Los Angeles Times (Sunday, August 30,2008) “Sites hawking fake documents facilitate loan fraud”, by Kenneth Harney, outlined people utilizing Craiglist and a number of other internet outlets subscribing the use of their bank accounts to help borrowers exaggerate assets in their loan applications.
The article addressed this by noting that people with good credit and income rent their names and asset verifications for home purchase by unqualified buyers. They charge upward to $ 7,500 or more for their financial identification.
Ventura County:
County listing continue to decline, sales are increasing, days on the market is tending to lessen and the variance between list price and actual sales price is stabilizing but is still high.
What this means is that either asking price is still too high or sellers are opting to take less just to get out from underneath.
Refer to http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/08/10/sizzlefizzlesizzle/ and you will see that the base is about set.
Looking at a year to year comparison (following chart) one can see the significant drop in prices that has occurred over the last 2+ years. This will abate shortly and as noted in the above reference it appears that prices will bounce once the year 2004 average price is achieved.
If you are potential seller I would suggest that (if you can) you WAIT. You will be glad that you did. If you can wait for a year or two you most certainly be glad that you had.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 23, 2008
August 24th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
The Olympics, Little League World Series and very limited negative real estate news.
The Ventura County weather has been outstanding, the ocean water has been great. One wishes this could continue for the rest of the year but that cannot happen.
The most negative real estate news is the down grading of Freddie Mac and Sallie Mae stocks (which was expected). Other negative news focused on inflation in the economy and significant coverage has been on-going about other nations facing the same economic problems as we in the United States.
Russia is flexing its’ muscles so one should anticipate some rough going regarding our relationship with them (which hasn’t been all that great anyway).
Ventura County real estate continues to stabilize. The week to week assessment shows that inventory continues to decrease; sales continue to increase; the variance between list price and average sales prices of homes sold continues to be high (about 5.7% meaning that there is still stiff negotiating between buyers and sellers with buyers coming out the better. But this is changing).
It does appear that sales have slowed over the last several weeks which is normal for the summer months.
One should read the article http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/08/23/brief-summary-of-benefits-of-seller-financing/ for an option to consider in selling a property.
Side bar: I will start a small series of discussions on people becoming their own bankers in order to move property, perhaps increase their monthly cash flow and leave a legacy for their children and other love ones.
The reference article “Brief Summary Of Benefits Of Seller Financing” is a start and an accepted IRS method of selling a property. Its use has been somewhat limited but it can be of help for some people to defer capital gains taxes on property sold.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 14, 2008
August 16th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
ZipRealty and Realtors.com have reported drops in home inventories throughout the United States. Major metropolitan areas such as Baltimore, Phoenix, Sacramento and a number of other areas have shown significant decreases.
Is this fall of home inventories good or bad?
It depends on why inventories are dropping. If the drop is due to sales it is good. If the inventory is dropping because sellers are retreating (expired listings) for better prices, it may or may not be good. It is too early to say. It will be dependent on when these properties return to the market place.
Some of the good news reported over the last week included Toll Brothers (a luxury home builder) Chief Executive Robert Toll stated that he sees a “growing pent-up demand” for homes as many buyers have delayed purchasing for the last three years.
Alan Greenspan, previous Federal Reserve chairman, this past week observed that he felt housing was beginning to stabilize.
Why is housing stabilization important?
“Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world’s mortgage backed securities” says Mr. Greenspan.
This site has been addressing the real estate turn around since the beginning of the year. Today I do not feel like a fish swimming against the current; I am swimming in the same direction as everyone else. What took you so long?
However the big “I” is starting to appear in newspapers and news medias rather regularly. “I”nflaltion appears to be taking hold. Why this surprises anyone is a surprise in itself. Food and fuel prices have been up aggressively for some time. Eventually the numbers had to support what most everyone else has known.
Overall it is expected that the Federal Reserve will keep inflation in check.
There has been some fall back in fuel prices. There have been reports that corn production will be higher (assuming Mother Nature doesn’t interfer with changing weather which it does frequently at this time of year).
Is the decrease in fuel and the increase in corn enough to dampened inflation? Coupled with the strengthening of the United States dollar the answer is yes.
Tony Kolton, President of Logical Information Machines, a provider of research to the world’s major energy trading companies has stated that oil will drop to $ 65 per barrel (it is currently around $ 113/barrel down from about $ 143/barrel). He states that speculators drove the price of oil up.
Side bar: If the United States doesn’t start drilling, oil will again accelerate upward and could reach $ 200 per barrel. That will pencil out to about $ 8-$ 10 a gallon at the pump. If that happens we will be drilling all over the place even in our own back yards.
Back to the subject:
Who are these speculators? For a start they include various union and non-union pension plans, various States pension and investment programs, individual commodity speculators, commodity funds, various colleges (Harvard, Stanford, USC, etc) trust programs. Take time and you can add to the list.
The consumer will eventually dictate what the market does. Spending over the last several months has been tied up in knots. Until the consumer feels confident in the market, spending will be limited.
Which is a quandary because humans (just because they are human) gravitate towards the negative.
There is evidence that driving (mileage) is down approximately 4% in California with the rest of the Country averaging about a 5% decrease in auto travel.
Some experts suggest that the decrease in consumer driving is partially responsible for the decrease in fuel prices. This certainly is an element but other factors prevail such as over supply, other world economies activities, a decrease in the speculative fervor that has been in place for months in the commodities and a cut back in spending by all people throughout the world.
Again until the consumer feels that the markets are secure and more positive they will hold back on purchasing. Expect to see some great sales as an incentive to part consumers from their money. Will it work? Probably yes.
Previously mentioned is a factor working in United States favor is that economies around the world are showing signs of stress. The US dollar has been increasing in value when compared to other currencies which bodes well for our economy.
The bottom line for all of this is good for real estate. Review the article “ http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=391” and view the forecast for Ventura County real estate through the year 2022.
The market is getting extremely strong. Yes there will be a number of people who may think that I am hallucinating, but the market will be great. Those that waited to buy at the bottom have missed the train. See article: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/03/05/dont-buy-today-and-count-on-crying-tomorrow/).
California is suffering. Unemployment is up 7%+ (does not bode well); California is ranked number 5 as the highest tax state (New Jersey is #1; New York is #2. This is not good either. Business will seek lower rates in other States); in-land areas are still showing high foreclosures. The California political establishment cannot seem to get its act together.
Despite what is happening in the State overall, Ventura County is doing well. The County will be splashed with some of the negative activities going on state-wide but overall it will do well.
As previously expressed, real estate in the County will appreciate 7%+ this year; 17% over the next 24 months; and approximately 26%+ over the next 36 months. See article http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/07/19/happy-days-are-here-again/ for various City forcast in and out of State.
The past weeks Ventura County real estate activity:
All went well over the last week (Oh….I should point out this is an abbreviated report relative to time. Normally I would cover 7 days; this report covers 6 days).
Sales continue to increase; listings continue to decrease; days on the market for sold homes shows an increase because of one property being on the market 336 days (the chart shows 536 days but that is wrong); the variance between list price and average sales price approximates 5% (which is still a little high) and total sales to date total 3,969 single family homes sold since the beginning of the year.
The market is showing signs of stability. Which is excellent for everyone in Ventura County.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 9, 2008
August 10th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Ho…Hummmmm. It is summer and things are lazy and slow. Lots of time is being spent with the family and friends.
Most news this week continues to be on financial institutions but this will shortly abate and attention will be transferred to something else.
Prices for oil has been downward; food prices continue upward. People are holding off buying anything……they are waiting to see what is going to happen. It’s an eerie feeling; the lull before the storm.
The Olympics has given some reprieve from the negative news within our own Country to be replaced with the war between Russia and Georgia which is gaining greater attention over the last few days.
The national economic news was, well there wasn’t any. There have been a few articles I have read of coupons beings extensively used by shoppers to take advantage of discounts and savings towards food cost. Unemployment has been increasing which is never a healthy issue.
The news that has surprised most is the 2nd home tax action taken by Congress in the recently passed housing bill. The focus is on “principal” residence. One owning a number of properties would strategically sell properties at a time that would yield escape from taxation on monies (profits).
The new law stipulates that if you buy a 2nd home or an investment property after January 1, 2008 convert it later into your principal residence and then sell, you will have to allocate any gain from the sale between periods of qualified and non-qualified usage.
The bottom line being that Uncle Sam snipped off a tax loop hole necessitating a review by people who wish to buy a second home or investment property.
The other real estate news was issued by PMI Group who state that real estate is showing signs of improvement throughout the United States except for California and Florida which they say will deteriorate further. The highest risk areas listed by this group are: Riverside/San Bernardino-Ontario; Fort Lauderdale; West Palm Beach; Orlando; Las Vegas; Tampa-St. Petersburg; Santa Ana-Anaheim; Los Angeles-Long Beach; Miami-Miami Beach and Sacramento.
In an article entitled “What The Rich Think Of Real Estate)http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/08/02/what-the-rich-think-of-real-estate/ it was mentioned that some rich people would move if certain zip codes were available.
From Deans Guide (April 20,2008) and the Chicago Sun Times (April 20,2008) “Realtors Sales Dream #1: Top Zip Codes and Real Estate”, the following is the recent list of those “rich” zip codes.
Going’s On In Ventura County Real Estate:
Within Ventura County it is summer and the fair is on-going so real estate was ho-hum for the week.
Listings continue to fall; days on the market of sold homes is now approximately 80 days (down significantlyfrom January when it was about 120 days; the variance between list price and final sales price is saw-toothing. Much depends on the sales range of the home. Higher price homes are now tending to give more (or accept less) than in previous weeks. And actual sales price averages continue to fall.
County area with the highest sales to list price variance were Santa Rosa Valley and Ojai this past week.
Capsule Summary Of Sales In Ventura County for period Jan. 1 thru July 31, 2008.
For those interested in trends the following chart is a summary of sales for this year through July 31 compared to prior years starting in 1994. From the data it appears that average actual sales price for homes will be settling in the year 2003-2004 price range. Somewhere between $ 463,000 and $ 585,000 will be the base that we are now entering and it is from this base that we will see price increases.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 2, 2008
August 3rd, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Yikes it happening Big Time.
The gauntlet will fall. It is just a matter of time.
Government is now growing closer to being the ultimate arbiter of how Americans (you) borrow, lend, distribute and deploy money.
Add to this the “fears” that we constantly listen to or read about:
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you can eat this but not that;
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in some places of the country people are being told what size home they will be allowed to build;
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we are being told that certain language and words are not allowed (but some peoples can still use various “not” words but “us” others can’t. You figure it out.);
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we are being told what automobiles will be driven;
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we are being told what we can wear and what not to wear;
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soon we will be told where we can live and with whom;
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and don’t breath because your CO-2 creates a problem with nature (earth warming);
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and it continues.
I must have fallen off the turnip truck but things are really getting out of whack. And you may ask “pray tell what does any of this have to do with real estate.”
In one word: Lots.
The elected and not elected (the gray forces who are always in office despite who is elected) peoples in Federal and State governments feel that they know what is best for all of us.
All of this is interesting and I suspect the talk we hear and the print that we read are the required preliminary steps to justify TAX INCREASES at all levels of government.
Due to governments short falls in revenue one should expect healthy increases in both real estate taxes, sales tax and other political “fees” that are slipped into the system. And it goes without saying that there will be significant personal and business Federal and State tax increases regardless of who is elected in November.
With inflation just around the corner interest rates most certainly will go up bedeviling everybody and everything. It is quite possible that we will re-live 16% home mortgage rates with all the help that Washington is giving.
This is government at work: they spend; we pay.
An aside comment. I either was told or read that approximately 51% or more of the working population in California are employed by some Federal, State, Regional or Local government agency. If true that is a lot of people and the prospects of an advancing economic economy may be stymied.
Back to the national picture.
A recent article by Jon Markham (via MSN Money) entitled, “Is Market ‘fix’ Tomorrow’s Crisis” suggest yes. David Kotok of institutional fund manager Cumberland Advisors told clients this week, the “seeds of the next crisis are being sown right now” as a set of presumed fixes create unexpected consequences. He is making reference to the Freddie Mac and Sallie Mae fixes that Washington has instituted.
Hazarding a guess, Kotok suggests the next crises may emerge in federal guarantees as private entities are let off the hook for their obligations. Beware of stresses that the new era will place on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which is responsible for faltering banks’ deposits; the federal Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp., which is responsible for making good on companies’ unfunded pensions; and the Securities Investor Protection Corp., which is responsible for making good on brokerage customers’ cash losses. No one really knows whether they have the funds to carry out their missions.
But we may not be alone. Here is a headline from the Guardian (a British newspaper): ” House prices continued to fall in July, recording their largest year-on-year drop since the property market crash of the early 1990s, figures from Nationwide building society showed today.”
Overseas real estate is slightly behind us in the scare headlines. The Unites States press are now beginning to show that real estate is becoming positive, ever so slowly.
Back To What I Know…..Ventura County Real Estate.
Looking at the monthly summaries it is evident that from month to month home sales continue to increase; days on the market for sold homes is decreasing; the average list price and eventual sales price for sold homes continues to decrease; the variance between list price and sales price has flattened; and inventory has dropped dramatically since the beginning of the year (from 15 months to 5.8 months).
75% of homes sold last week in Ventura County were below $ 500,000.
Not shown in the chart above and a pattern that is just now developing, it appears that sellers are beginning to increase home prices.
Again the numbers are small but when one includes the multiple offers that some properties are now getting it appears that Ventura County home prices will now start to rise.
Sellers will now expect more for their properties.
So it appears that the downside of the market has been set and completed and over the next several weeks the overall market will start showing property values rising.
It is expected that Ventura County properties will appreciate approximately 8% in the next 12 months.
National economics can put a dent in the growth pattern for Ventura County but the overall economy has to really take a hit before it is reflected in the County.
We do have one thing in Ventura County which very few people have. When things get out of sorts we can always take time to walk the beach.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending July 26, 2008
July 27th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Well what do you know. Finally some recognition that the real estate market is turning around.
And from the print media no less.
Just passed by the House and Senate and awaiting the Presidents signature is the homeowners housing rescue plan.
As previously mentioned this bill is too little, too late. Yes it may help a few people but it certainly will help Freddie Mac and Salle Mae and give local political entities monies to buy “distressed”, “abandoned”, or whatever you want to call it, properties.
What the bill focuses on is the governments extension of social management. Of real concern are monies allocated to local governments to purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed homes.
In the small print, if citizens are not vigil, local governments can exercise eminent domain under the guise of “rehabilitation”, “abandoned” or “distressed”. It will not be called that but watch and you will see local governments exercise eminent domain citing “beautification” and “earth green” and any other limerick that suits their purpose.
This bill reminds me of a cartoon I saw recently. The cartoon showed a sign reading: “Stupidity Night. Pay full price and get in free.”
Ventura County Focus:
The Summer doldrums were evident this pastweek in Ventura County. Listing decreased slightly; sales decreased slightly as did days on the market for sold homes (72 days versus the prior weeks 81 days). The variance between average list price and average sales price of homes sold settle in at -3.8%, a decrease from the previous weeks -5.2%.
Comparison: July 26, 2007 through July 26, 2008
This next chart is rather revealing. This chart is a comparison of sales in the year 2007 versus 2008 for the same period (ending July 26 of both years).
Mentioned on many occasions on this web site was the fact that Ventura County has done very well on the downside of the real estate market.
Comparing July 26, 2007 with July 26, 2008, sales have decreased over the year from 3,995 (in 2007) to 3,464 (in 2008).
Of critical note is that the average sales prices of homes sold decreased approximately 16%.
Homes average sales price in 2007 was $ 810,022 and in 2008; the average home sales price in 2008 is approximately $ 740,754.
Areas with the highest decrease in home sales prices are Ventura (-21.8%); Oxnard (-31.1%); Fillmore (-30.6%); and Santa Paula (-24.3%).
Also mentioned periodically was that anything owned along the beaches is better than gold.
The Ventura beach area home valuesincreased but sales decreased when compared from 2007 to 2008. Ventura beach prices increased 43%over the last year for properties in the Ventura Beaches area. Prices in the year 2007 averaged $1,279,144; prices in 2008 averaged $ 1,828,969.
Oxnard beach properties price variance between 2007 and 2008 settle in at -10.2% less on a year to year comparison.
The Santa Rosa Valley area values from year to year comparisons was -9.7%.
So we indeed live a great area and appear to be immune at this time to economic factors that plague other areas such as the San Bernardino area.
So Ventura Beaches did the best on a year to year comparison. Fillmore homes sales values did the worse over the last year.
Your comments are most welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending July 19, 2008
July 20th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
What a difference a week makes.
The County experienced a further decline in listings (see chart below); home sales as expected decreased (it is summer); days on the market for sold homes increased; and properties selling for $ 500,000 or less are moving the fastest.
Quite unsettling are the guru’s who tell us how to handle money. They are finding themselves knee deep in alligators.
Zero down, 110% financing and all the other exotic finance packages that the banks and lenders pushed for the last several years are now coming to haunt them.
Excuse me….it is not them, it is us.
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are going to be helped through their crisis with money from Uncle Sam. Nope! Got that wrong again. We are giving them the money (good old taxes) from us.
Side Bar. Have you noticed which banks are in trouble. The large institutions. Smaller banks and mortgage companies are doing well for the most part. So if given a choice look at your smaller bank and credit unions. Their management appear to have their acts together.
Back to real estate.
Talk about the fox protecting the chickens.
The Senators that pushed for the creation of these quasi-government companies (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) some years ago, today head the committees that will write the legislation to help bail out these quasi-entities from their crisis.
You know something is wrong when federal or state government officials go on televison Sunday morning telling us all is well. Come Monday (or Tuesday) we find out what the problem is…..strange how that works out.
When government bails out anything, inflation is right around the corner. The Federal Reserve in at a cross roads. They do not want to raise interest rates but if inflation starts flexing its’ muscles, then rates will increase.
The impact to overall real estate market. Minimal if any.
Real estate in California is going to be great. Ventura, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara counties will be excellent.
There are two articles that should be read to realize the strength of the Ventura County maret. Both articles give a better picture of the what is going to occur and the strenth of the Ventura market.
These articles are
- http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/07/19/happy-days-are-here-again/
- and http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/05/05/it-only-gets-better-we-are-on-the-upsidea-historical-perspective-of-home-prices-in-ventura-county-and-what-can-be-expected-in-the-next-10-years/ .
Within the next several months (maybe weeks) most if not all of the negative talk regarding mortgages, lenders, banks, real estate in general will disappear. The market has turned and things will be “happy” again.
What we will then hear and read is the chorus of properties becoming unaffordable. Then that cycle will begin over again. Good market or bad market, the media will dwell on the negative. Negativism sells.
One other note regarding Ventura County. As noted in the chart below, appreciation projection for the County will approximate 7.6% over the next 12 months; 17% over 24 months and 26.6% over a 36 month span. These are good numbers.
There should be no doubt but Ventura County real estate is UP. Should National economic scene goes south on us then the County will experience something less than what is being projected. Based on current economic, employment and other Federal data the above rates of appreciation should be realize.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Monday Morning Coffee Break: Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending July 12, 2008
July 13th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
The news of the past week focused on IndyMac, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and not the real estate market.
Similar to the Bear-Sterns take over, the Federal Reserve opted to do the same with IndyMac Bank.
Whether IndyMac is sold or not will not hampered the real estate market. In a few weeks this IndyMac problem will disappear, just like Bear Sterns.
Steps will be taken to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well.
Real estate interest rates will continue to stay around 6% over the next serveral weeks. There will be up’s and down’s of from 1/4 to 3/8 point swings but on average interest rates will remain flat.
Germain to real estate is that good news is starting to ease out of the wood work. Foreclosures are still high but now there is evidence that may be phasing out shortly.
Price of homes attracting buyers are generally below $ 450,000.
Ventura County real estate appears to have hit its bottom as listing continue to decrease; properties sold continue to increase weekly; the number of days sold homes were on the market has decreased; and the variance between list price and sales price of sold homes decreased.
Couple this with the fact that some sellers are beginning to reverse course and have started to increase their list price. Not many as yet (only one’s and two’s) but this was not seen a month ago or longer.
So unless some uncharacteristical event occurs to the general economy of the United States, Ventura County real estate is on the upswing and affordable homes are being scooped up rapidly.
Real estate investors have to consider that with high fuel and food prices the home buyers will purchase homes that are closer to the job market, shopping areas and schools. That is why Ventura County real estate has had minimal downside impact compared to other areas.
Overall it appears that the real estate decline, in general, will have run its course by the end of this year or the first quarter of 2009. Ventura County is slightly ahead of this time line by about 3 months.
Your comments are welcomed
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Monday Morning Coffee Break: Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending July 5, 2008
July 6th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Watching grass grow is much more exciting than the real estate market.
However there are signs that the bottom has been set.
The past week showed listing decreasing, sales increasing, the days on the market for sold homes decreased but the variance between list price of sold homes and the sales price showed an increase.
Inventory appears to be approximately a 7 month supply which is significantly down from the 15 month supply of January, 2008.
Where are we going from here?
First there will be a continuation as we have had over the last several months. Shortly we will start seeing home prices edging upward. Over the next 12 months Ventura County will witness a 5.5% growth. Over a span of 36 months the appreciation of property in Ventura County will approximate 24.4% or more.
Meaning? If a property has a value of $ 500,000 today, in 36 months that same property will be worth $ 622,000 or more.
Ventura County should continue this upward move unless the overall economics of the area deteriorates significantly. Base on financial data available such deterioration probably will not occur.
There are simmering problems that are mentioned below but these should not impact the overall growth of the County. So for the County at this time all is well and good.
As previously mentioned Fillmore (Santa Paula and Oxnard) have to address the flood plain issue and there are community questions that have been simmering in regard to low price housing.
The flood plain discussion centers around a review of build-able areas in all of the Ventura County communities.
The question of low cost housing has been simmering for at least 7 to 10 years and will continue until it is decided by the citizens as to what type of community they want to see in the future.
Today agriculture is still strong in Ventura County but it is dwindling and attempting to project what the communities will look like in 15 to 25 years from now is not an easy task. Agriculture and the jobs it supplies will not be with us for much longer.
Foreign competition will become more aggressive and prices for food items and other essentials will become more readily available and cheaper. Wal-Mart has the blue print which others are or will soon follow.
Neither of the above mentioned problems will impact Ventura County as a whole. It will have an impact on the individual communities standard of living, life styles, tax dollars and a variety of people “wants” and needs and the type of jobs created in the County.
The advocates for less low cost housing consider these homes as not necessarily contributing significantly to the funds needed to operate the community essential items. They probably feel that such housing lessens the value of current homes in the respective communities.
Money is the base line of discussions but it also has to do with community values and life styles. What type of community do we want to live in?
Add to the equation that there are those who feel that various State and Local agencies are dictating what the values and life style should be and they are beginning to object. So politics is at play but this can be corrected by voting in different people.
The bottom line again is money. It is believed that construction of higher price homes not only attract the well to do but these people will be inclined to spend money within the community in lieu of going elsewhere to make food, clothing and entertainment purchases.
A number of areas have focused on low cost housing only to find that the residents do go elsewhere to buy not only food but other essential living items.
Poor and rich…..everyone wants the good life and a better life for themselves and children. Decisions must be made to make it feasible for both. Not an easy task and one that will not please all.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Monday Morning Coffee Break: Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending June 28, 2008
June 29th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
It has been only a week but there are some hints of a retraction occurring in the Ventura County real estate market. What does it mean?
First it could be a simple aberration. It is summer and things do slow down during the summer months. People have other things to do and selling a home is not a high priority.
People are of the mind set to hold and wait to see what the overall economy is going to do.
There are some major financial adjustments happening with family budgets.
More funds have to be redirected to basic necessities such as food and fuel. With the rains and flooding in the farm country, many crops destroyed, food prices will start increasing rapidly due to the shortages of corn and other basic crops.
As an aside—- this action of Mother Nature is having people re-think oil drilling, coal conversion to fuel and nuclear plants. As prices for gasoline zips past $ 5 per gallon, upward to $ 10 per gallon, there will be a rapid out cry for the United States to start drilling.
Europe has many nuclear plants. America is looking and asking why not us?
Also, there is a slogan now taking root “Drill Now!, Drill Here!”
It will not be long for the political astute to sense the change (if they haven’t already) and then we will see drilling. But it is going to take time. The change however has taken place…..we will have drilling.
Politicians being politicians want to be re-elected and many things will be done to appease the public regarding soaring prices for both fuel and food. Unfortunately the political forces end up doing the wrong thing and the problem becomes bigger. Today the political course is to say one thing and be working on doing something else.
OK….back to real estate. The bottom of the market has been set and people will start seeing prices going upward within a few months. There have been a few properties, not many, that have revised their list price upward.
As shown in the top of the chart below, the appreciation rate for Ventura County over the next 12 months will be about 5.5% and will increase to 24+% (or more) within 36 months.
Add to the mix the fact that sellers are not willing to part with their property without getting the value they think it has. The pendulum appears to be swinging back in favor of sellers. We will know in a few more weeks.
The total number of listings were down for the week, meaning that inventory is being reduced, which is good and will favor higher prices.
Expirations over the last month or so has been down. These homes are sitting in the back ground just waiting for the time and price to come up to sellers expectations. Also the variance of homes sold list price to the actual sales price dropped significantly over the last week. Homes that are selling tend to be around $ 500,000 or less price range.
I do know that people are looking and most are looking for a deal. But the “deals” are getting leaner as sellers begin to dig in for their price. I do know this for a fact. Just this past week two clients that had planned to sell a few years ago and didn’t, wanted to know what their properties were worth now. When told they just looked at me and said “I’ll wait”.
Keep in mind none of this means much unless buyers are qualify to buy. Good income, good debt ratios and good FICO scores have come back into vogue. Those that can qualify for VA loans should take advantage of the opportunity offered by the VA.
It is readily apparent that the neighborhood banks in general are hesitant to make mortgage loans (they are looking for less risky ventures). So buyers will seek out lenders such as Provident Funding and other type real estate only lenders who by the way tend to be far better with rates than banks.
The areas with the steepest decrease of listings in Ventura County over the last week occurred in the Conejo Valley. Fillmore is still in a downward spiral but it appears that it has abated somewhat and things should at least flatten out.
However areas such as Fillmore have to settle the flood plains issue. If they don’t their growth as a city and the building of homes and attracting industry in general will be hampered.
Let me leave you with a mid-year, 6 months comparison between 2007 and 2008 of Ventura County.
For 2007 (January 1 thru June 29) there were 3,529 homes that had sold; the average list price for sold homes averaged $ 722,009; the homes sales price averaged $ 699,077 for a variance of 3.3%. These sold homes were on the market for an average of 76 days.
For 2008 (January 1 thru June 28) there have been 2828 homes sold (a decrease of 25% for similar period in 2007). The average listing price for sold homes this year for this period was $ 703,304 (about the same as 2007). The average sales price of sold home is $ 555,877 this year. The variance between sold homes list price and sales price is down 26.5%. Sold homes are taking 92 days now compared to 76 days in 2007.
On that sobering note I will talk to you next week. Yes the market has bottomed and is headed upward. Good news is starting to be printed about Ventura County real estate. It began with the University of California annual report last month and positive news will continue.
One more item…….cities will be the place that real estate will grow the fastest. Read Is $5 or $10 Per Gallon Gasoline Going To Kill Real Estate In Ventura County? Or Any Other Place. Driving to work from suburbia will lose its luster because of the high gas prices. This will be offset somewhat with many professionals working from home.
Your comments are welcomed.
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