Archive for the 'Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County' Category
Show Time! Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending September 27, 2008
September 28th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Quiet on the set. Lights! Camera! Action! (Jeez…I had to say that……).
The political Oscar show has begun in Washington.
The Democrat Enron case (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) show has started .
The Frank’s and Dodd’s who engineered these quasi-government companies in the 1990’s Clinton Administration are now heading the campaign to make garbage look like gold with a “bail out”.
If Washington wants to help Wall Street what should be done is to create a 30 year to 50 year bond which would be paid back with interest (say at 6% 
or more) to the taxpayers but it would be paid by those being bailed out.
The political establishment does not have to saddle the taxpayer (Main Street) with this political, thoughtless financial burden created by Congress. This is the capitalist way of doing things which is what made the United States great.
Allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to re-package their questionable mortgage notes, discount them to what the market will bear, and in return they will get some money for operating expenses. The people buying these re-packaged item(s) will either make a lot of money or lose significantly…..but that is the investors choice.
The bond could be set up so that the first 10-20 years would be interest only; the last 30-40 years would be amortized (principal and interest) over the remaining life of the loan.
I think 30 years is better than 50 but I willing to give a little. Why 30 years? The 30 year mortgage is the standard mortgage period for Main Street, so the same should apply to Wall Street, Washington Street, Detroit Street and any other street you wish to add.
But what do I know…..I live on Main Street and do not understand the on-goings of Washington or Wall Street.
There is a book entitled “Waking Giant: America in the Age of Jackson” by David S. Reynolds (Harper) in which the author describes the President Jackson era of rabid growth, banking brawls and other faddish items. As a critic wrote: “Jackson hated banks—hated the idea of a government protected money machine–and he vetoed a bill to renew the charter of the Second Bank of the United States which can be loosely described as yesterday’s Federal Reserve. This veto occurred in an election year.
What is interesting is the presidential issue then is the same issue today….a referendum over the constitutionality, equity and efficacy of banking in general (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). What Mr. Reynolds concludes is that in Jackson day, just as today, we are in an age of hoaxes and nostrums. We have changed, but haven’t changed much since 1832.
The next step would be a complete investigation and removal of the political people involved in this whole mess.
And the brains and management (that keep this Country going) do not reside on Wall Street or in Washington but on Main Street.
Ventura County:
The past week showed significant gains in sales, a big drop in listings, and variance between list price and actual sales price of homes sold dropped by 50%. Days on the market for homes sold was high at 99 days compared to the average of 71 days the week before.
But the market appears to be sound however the drop in jobs and the increase in unemployment have not been incorporated in the numbers so the impact is still fluid.
Until then it is a good market as shown in the table below.
The monthly chart below and the Spot Yearly Comparison between 2006 and now suggests that the market is looking for balance which I think occurred in June/July of 2008. The disconcerting jumb in inventory was not expected but this may simply be a minor hiccup for this period. But the trend appears to be done.
Ventura County has witnessed a 25% drop in home values since 2006. Compared to other areas such as Redlands, etc., this is relatively small. However areas such as Fillmore and Santa Paula have seen an average of 50% decrease in home values. Fortunately other parts of the County pared that number down.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Uncle Sam’s Enron! Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending September 20, 2008
September 21st, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
We are witnessing the best day time soap opera ever written.
It has Greed, Sex, Lies, Apathy and maybe a Cover Up? Hollywood could not ask for a better script.
One hopes that all of this is make believe but unfortunately things are beginning to unfold, quicker than most people want or expected. The good stuff probably hasn’t been seen yet.
So let’s see…..in addition to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, this past week we bailed out AIG (which if I read the transaction correctly may not be a bad thing ….. AIG pays everything back with interest and if they don’t they have trillions in assets which the government can sell off).
Also there was some talk that the Federal Reserve will buy ALL bad notes from the banks. No one asked if this was limited to mortgages or if auto loans and others were going to be thrown into the pot. Expect the worse….all bad loans will include mortgages, auto and other loans (like credit cards).
So yes the United States tax payer will be plucked again by Congress. What is a mere $ 7,000,000,000,000.00 amongst friends with more to come. Maybe there should be more 000’s added to whatever that number represents.
This is going to be a slow, unwinding soap opera which will get an Oscar based on the performances yet to come from our politicians. I cannot wait until the other shoe drops.
And if that is not a kick in the pants, the people who created this Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mess are still in office, heading many of the committees and (this is the best part of all), they are the one’s that will do the investigating and will be the architects who will create (yes, you guessed it) legislation to cure the problems they generated.
Perfecto! You cannot ask for anything better. Isn’t this the best script ever written. How many political Enron types do you think will end up in jail? My guess is ZERO!
Of course in most plots there has to be a bad guy. Yep….you guessed it. The news media are calling this soap opera that we are witnessing the Bush problem.
NOT SO! This is the 1990’s Democrat Congress fiasco. It’s their legacy to our future generations.
And another balloon released for general reading and reporting is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are private companies. Not so! These are Government sponsored monopolistic entities pure and simple.
During the 1990’s the Clinton Administration saw fit to say and implement a strategy that all people deserved a home. A home in every pot so to speak. It did not matter that the recipient could or could not afford a home only that each person should have a home.
Subsequent to this policy a number of Republican law makers attempted to put controls on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae but to no avail. Barney Frank and others muscled out any attempts to put controls on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. I have not checked but I wonder how much in donations Barney Frank and the others received from Freddie and Fannie?
This 90’s policy is what we are dealing with today. There are multiple billions of dollars at stake that the tax payer will have to pay. This is the legacy from the 1990’s group of Senators and House members that put into effect this horrible policy.
If this activity were undertaken in the private sector (remember Enron) to be sure we would be have hearing on Capital Hill instantly. But all is quiet. Hearings (if any) are going to started after the election. Why not now?
What should be happening now are hearing to see who is responsible for the overall mess. It is unfortunate that the culprits are in office and no one is going to be charged.
This is a government Enron type situation and the politicians are circling the wagons to protect their own.
The media has been eerrily quiet with the exception of blaming Bush (which in itself is tiresome). There should be lots of print and broadcasting as had been done with Enron and other companies. What has happened to our investigative reporters?
As happens in the private sector some politicians should be going to jail but don’t hold your breath because that isn’t going to happen.
There are lots of questions to ask. The first of which is “Who in Congress was keeping tabs on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Why didn’t they see what was going on? What committee(s) and who are the committee members that are supposed to be watching the public interest?
Prison seems like a good place to put many of these people…..just like one would do in the private sector.
But it appears that the law which covers these crimes is handled differently for the private sector than for public crimes of the same nature. Enron now appears to be a love story compared to what is happening in Washington. Funny how that works out.
And do not get too comfortable……oozing out of the wood work will be Uncle Sam having to rescue State pension plans which are beyond the reach of many municipalities to cope with. Now that is going to be one heck of problem to resolve.
I suspect that a shock is in store for the system. In the private sector this would be handled via a bankruptcy and all pensioners would likely lose. I suspect that the public sector will also declare bankruptcy and all pensioners would lose.
Let’s add to glowing embers the possibility of a Jimmy Carter’s era of 17% mortgage rates? Oh….by all means one should expect healthy tax increases but that may a difficult task to legislate.
This gets better all the time…..I am running out of pop corn so wait for the next installment.
Side bar: From an historical point of view there were four panic occasions in which the Government had to act.
Panic of 1792. Nobody is around to discuss this situation but the Federal Government acted to take over State debts from the Revolutionary War.
Panic of 1907. Again not too many people around to address this situation but it appears there was a run on banks and trusts for failed loans in a copper company.
The Depression (1930’s period). The Home Owners’ Loan Corporation was created whereby Congress bought default mortgages (about 1 million mortgages) from banks, refinanced them at lower interest rates for fixed, 15 year terms. The stock market crash was the culprit.
Savings and Loans Crisis (1986-1995). Congress created the Resolution Trust Corporation to clean up the Savings and Loan mess created by failed commercial real estate loans which totaled $ 124 billion.
Ventura County.
Mentioned repeatedly was the fact that Ventura County appeared to be immune to the goings on National landscape. I hope that is remains true.
It appears that the shield has been dented. The shield hasn’t been punctured but the reports of jobs decreasing significantly often is a first step for other things to unravel.
The weekly real estate numbers appear to be strong. There has been a sizable reduction in listings; homes continue to sell at a good pace; days on the market appears to have settle in at about 6-8 weeks; but the variance between list price and sales price increased significantly over the last week. The culprits for this are high end residential sales. Properties selling for less than $ 500,000 tend to be less inclined for significant discounting.
Sidebar: Not much has been mentioned but it appears that foreclosures for properties above $ 1,000,000 is increasing significantly especially in areas of Florida, Nevada and California.
Overall the Ventura County real estate market is good and as can be noted the appreciation rate for County real estate will be approximately 7+% for the next 12 months.
Your comments are welcomed.
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OK…I Give Up! Stop Robbing Me. Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending September 13, 2008
September 14th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Well let’s see what happened this past week.
On the National level and to no one’s surprise Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were put into receivership.
Unfortunately the culprits that created these entities are now working on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac II. Who are the culprits? View the article written in July, 2008, http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/07/20/ventura-county-real-estate-doings-for-week-ending-july-19-2008/.
Yes you guessed it….Barney Franks and his coharts. The crafted legislation created by these brain thrusts will only cost the American taxpayer BILLIONS of $$$$$.
Just cannot wait for the next gift we will receive from our in-place political santa clauses.
In October, 1992, Jim Leach, Iowa Republican pleaded to put measures in place to control Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Barney Franks, Massachusetts Democrate musceled a counter arguement and prevailed.
Again in the year 2000 there were more cries to control Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and once again Barney Franks prevailed citing that these institutions were public agencies.
Our political people (both in Sacramento and Washington) have redefined public agencies with self gratification, activist agendas and investment machines. One should worry when political people note that what they do is in context of the “will of the people”. Their people count is limited to the number of fingers they have on their hands.
We have too many Barney Franks types in Sacramento and Washington. What needs to be done now is to give these folks beach lounges and retire them to the beach. Their legacies are getting too expensive for tax payers.
Not all was bad this week. Interest rates dropped to 5.5% from above the 6% line. They should be going lower but banks will be hesitant to really provide the relief the Federal Reserve has put into place over the last several months.
Lines of credit are becoming extremely difficult to obtain; mortgage applications are still be made difficult. So the folks that should be helping the consumers are putting the screws to them instead.
The dollar dropped significantly this past week creating street talk that the Federal Reserve is once again going to lower interest rates. If there is a decrease one should can expect to see a small drop of about 1/4 point (if that).
Ventura County.
It is interesting how Mother Nature introduces little characters which can create havoc.
One such introduction is the African moth (called the False codling moth or “Thaumatotibia leucotreta”), which is from the sub-Saharan Africa and trapped in Port Hueneme this past week. This moth can jeopardize Ventura Counties (and California) agricultural economy.
It appears that this little guy likes field crops, cotton, avocado, peach and citrus trees.
This moth does two things. It destroys the fruit and can destroy fruit trees. A double threat insect that can quarantine the above Ag products from leaving the county or State and all fruits cannot be sold for human consumption. The years of building markets overseas will be put in jeopardy if this insect isn’t isolated quickly and permanently.
Should the fruits have to be destroyed many households will have to find substitutes for row crop foods which will increase prices significantly on the produce that is available.
It is hopeful that there are minimal if any twits whose whole existence is to counter productive efforts to erase this nemesis.
This week listings continued to decrease; sales dropped slightly (from 119 two weeks ago to 100 last week); days on the market settled lower and the variance remains approximately the same.
As an aside I have noticed that previous terms and digs such as “low-cost” housing, housing prices are too high, “un-affordable” have been limited are not used either in print or visual media recently. Interesting how the market place put the brakes to these comments.
Your comments are welcome.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending September 6, 2008
September 7th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
An interesting week to say the least.
It appears that Uncle Sam is going into the financial mortgage business with the pending (street talk) of a take over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
People are trimming down spending despite the small decrease in fuel prices. Retail sales have not accelerated with the stimulus package as expected.
Neither Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac (quasi-business Congressional inventions) will be the same.
There will be a complete transformation of management and do not be surprise if the result is a transfer of these entities to a “private company” (dare I say maybe foreign. Now that would upset the status quo wouldn’t it).
Refresh your memory by reading the July article (noted below) regarding the development of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae institutions. The article is: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/07/20/ventura-county-real-estate-doing%e2%80%99s-for-week-ending-july-19-2008/ .
Add to the list the increase of unemployment and one starts to think that inflation is going to rear its’ ugly head and the economy is going into the tank.
Not so. Despite the negatives (which are pounded into our heads by the media) there was an increase in production, the dollar is starting to exert itself against other currencies and there is now more positive reporting on the bottoming of the real estate down turn.
Foreclosures are still high especially in California and Florida (and it looks like Ohio is getting hit as is Michigan). But other areas of the country are holding their own.
Forbes recently listed Albuquerque, New Mexico, Charlotte, North Carolina, San Antonio, Texas, Portland, Oregon and Austin, Texas as areas with great growth possibilities.
I do not agree with Forbes. I do like parts of Texas but I still think that Oklahoma, Mississippi and Louisiana should not be left out of the equation.
The street talk is that the Federal Reserve will not change the interest rate structure at its next meeting. Of more interest is (at least per the gossip on the street) that it is expected (hold onto your chair) that banks will start to lower mortgage rates (with prodding from the Federal Reserve).
To be sure the decreases will be gradual but on can expect rates to start hovering around 5.75% instead of 6+% within the next few weeks.
Banks are cinching down lines of credit. So this haven that a number of people sought has been walled up and people, and businesses, will have to look elsewhere (hard money) for funds.
Ventura County.
Despite all the National woes, real estate in Ventura County is doing well.
Inventory is down; sales continue to increase; days on the market showed a down turn and the variance between average list to sales price showed a decrease.
Home prices have reached the range of December, 2003-June, 2004 prices which was $ 489,040 to $ 566,654. The average sales price of a property in August of 2008 was $ 517,106. When compared to the peak prices of the year 2006, Ventura County home values have decreased approximately 25%.
But (there is always a but) values of home properties in Ventura County since 1997 have increased approximately 167% or at an average of 14.5% each year since 1997.
So there has been a lost from the 2006 price peak but overall the County has continued to strengthened upward over a 14+ years.
Since the bottom has been set (fizzle portion of the above chart) one can now picture what the future (sizzle) is going to be and it is excellent for Ventura County.
Not many Counties in California can show this type of real estate growth and there are very few in the Country that can show this type of growth.
Yes we had a few bad years but overall we have had it very good.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 30, 2008
August 31st, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Summer is slipping by, the football season has just started and we are blessed to have so many outlets to view and do in this area that it makes living here a great pleasure.
But I suspect if one dislikes sports it could be just the opposite.
However there is a bright side even if you do not like sports. There are outlets available to drown out politicians. That is worth something.
There has been positive news regarding the economy and real estate in particular.
Most news bits are now stating that it appears that the worse is behind us. Shortly almost everyone will be shouting from the roof tops of how good real estate is and then the cycle of gloom and doom will reappear.
A never ending cycle isn’t it.
Banks however are in the crossed hairs of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has indicated some displeasure with banks regarding interest rates and it is now taking the unusual steps of trying to find out why interest rates are not lower.
With all of the cuts exercised by the Reserve mortgage rates have not come down and this action by the banks exacerbates the mortgage problem. One has the feeling that banks are going to brought to task and will have to answer some questions.
Unfortunately this means more government intervention. Banks have not been cooperating. I suspect that will change.
However people do become their own worse enemy.
Reported in the Los Angeles Times (Sunday, August 30,2008) “Sites hawking fake documents facilitate loan fraud”, by Kenneth Harney, outlined people utilizing Craiglist and a number of other internet outlets subscribing the use of their bank accounts to help borrowers exaggerate assets in their loan applications.
The article addressed this by noting that people with good credit and income rent their names and asset verifications for home purchase by unqualified buyers. They charge upward to $ 7,500 or more for their financial identification.
Ventura County:
County listing continue to decline, sales are increasing, days on the market is tending to lessen and the variance between list price and actual sales price is stabilizing but is still high.
What this means is that either asking price is still too high or sellers are opting to take less just to get out from underneath.
Refer to http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/08/10/sizzlefizzlesizzle/ and you will see that the base is about set.
Looking at a year to year comparison (following chart) one can see the significant drop in prices that has occurred over the last 2+ years. This will abate shortly and as noted in the above reference it appears that prices will bounce once the year 2004 average price is achieved.
If you are potential seller I would suggest that (if you can) you WAIT. You will be glad that you did. If you can wait for a year or two you most certainly be glad that you had.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 23, 2008
August 24th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
The Olympics, Little League World Series and very limited negative real estate news.
The Ventura County weather has been outstanding, the ocean water has been great. One wishes this could continue for the rest of the year but that cannot happen.
The most negative real estate news is the down grading of Freddie Mac and Sallie Mae stocks (which was expected). Other negative news focused on inflation in the economy and significant coverage has been on-going about other nations facing the same economic problems as we in the United States.
Russia is flexing its’ muscles so one should anticipate some rough going regarding our relationship with them (which hasn’t been all that great anyway).
Ventura County real estate continues to stabilize. The week to week assessment shows that inventory continues to decrease; sales continue to increase; the variance between list price and average sales prices of homes sold continues to be high (about 5.7% meaning that there is still stiff negotiating between buyers and sellers with buyers coming out the better. But this is changing).
It does appear that sales have slowed over the last several weeks which is normal for the summer months.
One should read the article http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/08/23/brief-summary-of-benefits-of-seller-financing/ for an option to consider in selling a property.
Side bar: I will start a small series of discussions on people becoming their own bankers in order to move property, perhaps increase their monthly cash flow and leave a legacy for their children and other love ones.
The reference article “Brief Summary Of Benefits Of Seller Financing” is a start and an accepted IRS method of selling a property. Its use has been somewhat limited but it can be of help for some people to defer capital gains taxes on property sold.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 14, 2008
August 16th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
ZipRealty and Realtors.com have reported drops in home inventories throughout the United States. Major metropolitan areas such as Baltimore, Phoenix, Sacramento and a number of other areas have shown significant decreases.
Is this fall of home inventories good or bad?
It depends on why inventories are dropping. If the drop is due to sales it is good. If the inventory is dropping because sellers are retreating (expired listings) for better prices, it may or may not be good. It is too early to say. It will be dependent on when these properties return to the market place.
Some of the good news reported over the last week included Toll Brothers (a luxury home builder) Chief Executive Robert Toll stated that he sees a “growing pent-up demand” for homes as many buyers have delayed purchasing for the last three years.
Alan Greenspan, previous Federal Reserve chairman, this past week observed that he felt housing was beginning to stabilize.
Why is housing stabilization important?
“Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world’s mortgage backed securities” says Mr. Greenspan.
This site has been addressing the real estate turn around since the beginning of the year. Today I do not feel like a fish swimming against the current; I am swimming in the same direction as everyone else. What took you so long?
However the big “I” is starting to appear in newspapers and news medias rather regularly. “I”nflaltion appears to be taking hold. Why this surprises anyone is a surprise in itself. Food and fuel prices have been up aggressively for some time. Eventually the numbers had to support what most everyone else has known.
Overall it is expected that the Federal Reserve will keep inflation in check.
There has been some fall back in fuel prices. There have been reports that corn production will be higher (assuming Mother Nature doesn’t interfer with changing weather which it does frequently at this time of year).
Is the decrease in fuel and the increase in corn enough to dampened inflation? Coupled with the strengthening of the United States dollar the answer is yes.
Tony Kolton, President of Logical Information Machines, a provider of research to the world’s major energy trading companies has stated that oil will drop to $ 65 per barrel (it is currently around $ 113/barrel down from about $ 143/barrel). He states that speculators drove the price of oil up.
Side bar: If the United States doesn’t start drilling, oil will again accelerate upward and could reach $ 200 per barrel. That will pencil out to about $ 8-$ 10 a gallon at the pump. If that happens we will be drilling all over the place even in our own back yards.
Back to the subject:
Who are these speculators? For a start they include various union and non-union pension plans, various States pension and investment programs, individual commodity speculators, commodity funds, various colleges (Harvard, Stanford, USC, etc) trust programs. Take time and you can add to the list.
The consumer will eventually dictate what the market does. Spending over the last several months has been tied up in knots. Until the consumer feels confident in the market, spending will be limited.
Which is a quandary because humans (just because they are human) gravitate towards the negative.
There is evidence that driving (mileage) is down approximately 4% in California with the rest of the Country averaging about a 5% decrease in auto travel.
Some experts suggest that the decrease in consumer driving is partially responsible for the decrease in fuel prices. This certainly is an element but other factors prevail such as over supply, other world economies activities, a decrease in the speculative fervor that has been in place for months in the commodities and a cut back in spending by all people throughout the world.
Again until the consumer feels that the markets are secure and more positive they will hold back on purchasing. Expect to see some great sales as an incentive to part consumers from their money. Will it work? Probably yes.
Previously mentioned is a factor working in United States favor is that economies around the world are showing signs of stress. The US dollar has been increasing in value when compared to other currencies which bodes well for our economy.
The bottom line for all of this is good for real estate. Review the article “ http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=391” and view the forecast for Ventura County real estate through the year 2022.
The market is getting extremely strong. Yes there will be a number of people who may think that I am hallucinating, but the market will be great. Those that waited to buy at the bottom have missed the train. See article: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/03/05/dont-buy-today-and-count-on-crying-tomorrow/).
California is suffering. Unemployment is up 7%+ (does not bode well); California is ranked number 5 as the highest tax state (New Jersey is #1; New York is #2. This is not good either. Business will seek lower rates in other States); in-land areas are still showing high foreclosures. The California political establishment cannot seem to get its act together.
Despite what is happening in the State overall, Ventura County is doing well. The County will be splashed with some of the negative activities going on state-wide but overall it will do well.
As previously expressed, real estate in the County will appreciate 7%+ this year; 17% over the next 24 months; and approximately 26%+ over the next 36 months. See article http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/07/19/happy-days-are-here-again/ for various City forcast in and out of State.
The past weeks Ventura County real estate activity:
All went well over the last week (Oh….I should point out this is an abbreviated report relative to time. Normally I would cover 7 days; this report covers 6 days).
Sales continue to increase; listings continue to decrease; days on the market for sold homes shows an increase because of one property being on the market 336 days (the chart shows 536 days but that is wrong); the variance between list price and average sales price approximates 5% (which is still a little high) and total sales to date total 3,969 single family homes sold since the beginning of the year.
The market is showing signs of stability. Which is excellent for everyone in Ventura County.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 9, 2008
August 10th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Ho…Hummmmm. It is summer and things are lazy and slow. Lots of time is being spent with the family and friends.
Most news this week continues to be on financial institutions but this will shortly abate and attention will be transferred to something else.
Prices for oil has been downward; food prices continue upward. People are holding off buying anything……they are waiting to see what is going to happen. It’s an eerie feeling; the lull before the storm.
The Olympics has given some reprieve from the negative news within our own Country to be replaced with the war between Russia and Georgia which is gaining greater attention over the last few days.
The national economic news was, well there wasn’t any. There have been a few articles I have read of coupons beings extensively used by shoppers to take advantage of discounts and savings towards food cost. Unemployment has been increasing which is never a healthy issue.
The news that has surprised most is the 2nd home tax action taken by Congress in the recently passed housing bill. The focus is on “principal” residence. One owning a number of properties would strategically sell properties at a time that would yield escape from taxation on monies (profits).
The new law stipulates that if you buy a 2nd home or an investment property after January 1, 2008 convert it later into your principal residence and then sell, you will have to allocate any gain from the sale between periods of qualified and non-qualified usage.
The bottom line being that Uncle Sam snipped off a tax loop hole necessitating a review by people who wish to buy a second home or investment property.
The other real estate news was issued by PMI Group who state that real estate is showing signs of improvement throughout the United States except for California and Florida which they say will deteriorate further. The highest risk areas listed by this group are: Riverside/San Bernardino-Ontario; Fort Lauderdale; West Palm Beach; Orlando; Las Vegas; Tampa-St. Petersburg; Santa Ana-Anaheim; Los Angeles-Long Beach; Miami-Miami Beach and Sacramento.
In an article entitled “What The Rich Think Of Real Estate)http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/08/02/what-the-rich-think-of-real-estate/ it was mentioned that some rich people would move if certain zip codes were available.
From Deans Guide (April 20,2008) and the Chicago Sun Times (April 20,2008) “Realtors Sales Dream #1: Top Zip Codes and Real Estate”, the following is the recent list of those “rich” zip codes.
Going’s On In Ventura County Real Estate:
Within Ventura County it is summer and the fair is on-going so real estate was ho-hum for the week.
Listings continue to fall; days on the market of sold homes is now approximately 80 days (down significantlyfrom January when it was about 120 days; the variance between list price and final sales price is saw-toothing. Much depends on the sales range of the home. Higher price homes are now tending to give more (or accept less) than in previous weeks. And actual sales price averages continue to fall.
County area with the highest sales to list price variance were Santa Rosa Valley and Ojai this past week.
Capsule Summary Of Sales In Ventura County for period Jan. 1 thru July 31, 2008.
For those interested in trends the following chart is a summary of sales for this year through July 31 compared to prior years starting in 1994. From the data it appears that average actual sales price for homes will be settling in the year 2003-2004 price range. Somewhere between $ 463,000 and $ 585,000 will be the base that we are now entering and it is from this base that we will see price increases.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending August 2, 2008
August 3rd, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Yikes it happening Big Time.
The gauntlet will fall. It is just a matter of time.
Government is now growing closer to being the ultimate arbiter of how Americans (you) borrow, lend, distribute and deploy money.
Add to this the “fears” that we constantly listen to or read about:
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you can eat this but not that;
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in some places of the country people are being told what size home they will be allowed to build;
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we are being told that certain language and words are not allowed (but some peoples can still use various “not” words but “us” others can’t. You figure it out.);
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we are being told what automobiles will be driven;
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we are being told what we can wear and what not to wear;
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soon we will be told where we can live and with whom;
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and don’t breath because your CO-2 creates a problem with nature (earth warming);
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and it continues.
I must have fallen off the turnip truck but things are really getting out of whack. And you may ask “pray tell what does any of this have to do with real estate.”
In one word: Lots.
The elected and not elected (the gray forces who are always in office despite who is elected) peoples in Federal and State governments feel that they know what is best for all of us.
All of this is interesting and I suspect the talk we hear and the print that we read are the required preliminary steps to justify TAX INCREASES at all levels of government.
Due to governments short falls in revenue one should expect healthy increases in both real estate taxes, sales tax and other political “fees” that are slipped into the system. And it goes without saying that there will be significant personal and business Federal and State tax increases regardless of who is elected in November.
With inflation just around the corner interest rates most certainly will go up bedeviling everybody and everything. It is quite possible that we will re-live 16% home mortgage rates with all the help that Washington is giving.
This is government at work: they spend; we pay.
An aside comment. I either was told or read that approximately 51% or more of the working population in California are employed by some Federal, State, Regional or Local government agency. If true that is a lot of people and the prospects of an advancing economic economy may be stymied.
Back to the national picture.
A recent article by Jon Markham (via MSN Money) entitled, “Is Market ‘fix’ Tomorrow’s Crisis” suggest yes. David Kotok of institutional fund manager Cumberland Advisors told clients this week, the “seeds of the next crisis are being sown right now” as a set of presumed fixes create unexpected consequences. He is making reference to the Freddie Mac and Sallie Mae fixes that Washington has instituted.
Hazarding a guess, Kotok suggests the next crises may emerge in federal guarantees as private entities are let off the hook for their obligations. Beware of stresses that the new era will place on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which is responsible for faltering banks’ deposits; the federal Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp., which is responsible for making good on companies’ unfunded pensions; and the Securities Investor Protection Corp., which is responsible for making good on brokerage customers’ cash losses. No one really knows whether they have the funds to carry out their missions.
But we may not be alone. Here is a headline from the Guardian (a British newspaper): ” House prices continued to fall in July, recording their largest year-on-year drop since the property market crash of the early 1990s, figures from Nationwide building society showed today.”
Overseas real estate is slightly behind us in the scare headlines. The Unites States press are now beginning to show that real estate is becoming positive, ever so slowly.
Back To What I Know…..Ventura County Real Estate.
Looking at the monthly summaries it is evident that from month to month home sales continue to increase; days on the market for sold homes is decreasing; the average list price and eventual sales price for sold homes continues to decrease; the variance between list price and sales price has flattened; and inventory has dropped dramatically since the beginning of the year (from 15 months to 5.8 months).
75% of homes sold last week in Ventura County were below $ 500,000.
Not shown in the chart above and a pattern that is just now developing, it appears that sellers are beginning to increase home prices.
Again the numbers are small but when one includes the multiple offers that some properties are now getting it appears that Ventura County home prices will now start to rise.
Sellers will now expect more for their properties.
So it appears that the downside of the market has been set and completed and over the next several weeks the overall market will start showing property values rising.
It is expected that Ventura County properties will appreciate approximately 8% in the next 12 months.
National economics can put a dent in the growth pattern for Ventura County but the overall economy has to really take a hit before it is reflected in the County.
We do have one thing in Ventura County which very few people have. When things get out of sorts we can always take time to walk the beach.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending July 26, 2008
July 27th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Well what do you know. Finally some recognition that the real estate market is turning around.
And from the print media no less.
Just passed by the House and Senate and awaiting the Presidents signature is the homeowners housing rescue plan.
As previously mentioned this bill is too little, too late. Yes it may help a few people but it certainly will help Freddie Mac and Salle Mae and give local political entities monies to buy “distressed”, “abandoned”, or whatever you want to call it, properties.
What the bill focuses on is the governments extension of social management. Of real concern are monies allocated to local governments to purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed homes.
In the small print, if citizens are not vigil, local governments can exercise eminent domain under the guise of “rehabilitation”, “abandoned” or “distressed”. It will not be called that but watch and you will see local governments exercise eminent domain citing “beautification” and “earth green” and any other limerick that suits their purpose.
This bill reminds me of a cartoon I saw recently. The cartoon showed a sign reading: “Stupidity Night. Pay full price and get in free.”
Ventura County Focus:
The Summer doldrums were evident this pastweek in Ventura County. Listing decreased slightly; sales decreased slightly as did days on the market for sold homes (72 days versus the prior weeks 81 days). The variance between average list price and average sales price of homes sold settle in at -3.8%, a decrease from the previous weeks -5.2%.
Comparison: July 26, 2007 through July 26, 2008
This next chart is rather revealing. This chart is a comparison of sales in the year 2007 versus 2008 for the same period (ending July 26 of both years).
Mentioned on many occasions on this web site was the fact that Ventura County has done very well on the downside of the real estate market.
Comparing July 26, 2007 with July 26, 2008, sales have decreased over the year from 3,995 (in 2007) to 3,464 (in 2008).
Of critical note is that the average sales prices of homes sold decreased approximately 16%.
Homes average sales price in 2007 was $ 810,022 and in 2008; the average home sales price in 2008 is approximately $ 740,754.
Areas with the highest decrease in home sales prices are Ventura (-21.8%); Oxnard (-31.1%); Fillmore (-30.6%); and Santa Paula (-24.3%).
Also mentioned periodically was that anything owned along the beaches is better than gold.
The Ventura beach area home valuesincreased but sales decreased when compared from 2007 to 2008. Ventura beach prices increased 43%over the last year for properties in the Ventura Beaches area. Prices in the year 2007 averaged $1,279,144; prices in 2008 averaged $ 1,828,969.
Oxnard beach properties price variance between 2007 and 2008 settle in at -10.2% less on a year to year comparison.
The Santa Rosa Valley area values from year to year comparisons was -9.7%.
So we indeed live a great area and appear to be immune at this time to economic factors that plague other areas such as the San Bernardino area.
So Ventura Beaches did the best on a year to year comparison. Fillmore homes sales values did the worse over the last year.
Your comments are most welcomed.
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