Out With The Old; In With The New?
January 2nd, 2010 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
If you dislike reading and looking at statistical charts you may want to pass on this article. Charts were used extensively because more information can be presented in a limited space.
The Ventura County real estate market has been choppy over the last year due in large part to foreclosures and the reverse of that…..new buyer credit.
Words however do not tell the story. The chart below is a monthly summary or prices by month for Ventura County. From this chart one can see the ups and downs that has been experienced throughout the year. Despite the ups and downs prices for Ventura County real estate rose approximately 6% from a year ago (December 31, 2008).
| Ventura County | Sales | DOM/ | Ave List $ | Ave Sales $ | Variance |
| Monthly Summaries | CDOM | List to | |||
| (for years 2008 and 2009) | Sales | ||||
| YEAR 2009 | |||||
| Dec 1-Dec 31, 2009 | 631 | 80/98 | $ 461,952 | $ 448,647 | -2.9% |
| Nov 1-Nov 30, 2009 | 603 | 78/91 | $ 451,632 | $ 443,420 | -1.8% |
| Oct 1-Oct 31, 2009 | 764 | 77/95 | $ 468,905 | $ 457,700 | -2.4% |
| Sept 1-Sept 26, 2009 | 669 | 82/102 | $ 472,717 | $ 457,808 | -3.2% |
| Aug 1-Aug 31, 2009 | 678 | 75/93 | $ 481,357 | $ 470,137 | -2.3% |
| July 1-July 31, 2009 | 747 | 85/102 | $ 502,838 | $ 485,284 | -3.5% |
| June 1-June 30, 2009 | 706 | 83/106 | $ 483,511 | $ 469,355 | -2.9% |
| May 1-May 31, 2009 | 730 | 86/111 | $ 445,696 | $ 430,371 | -3.4% |
| April 1-April 30, 2009 | 638 | 77/104 | $ 417,511 | $ 403,444 | -3.4% |
| March 1-March 31, 2009 | 677 | 79/110 | $ 397,917 | $ 384,247 | -3.4% |
| Feb 1-Feb 28, 2009 | 505 | 78/110 | $ 409,229 | $ 394,976 | -3.5% |
| Jan 1-Jan 31, 2009 | 551 | 87/111 | $ 407,705 | $ 392,659 | -3.7% |
| Totals Thru Dec, 2009 | 7899 | ||||
| YEAR 2008 | |||||
| Totals Dec 1-Dec 31, 2008 | 712 | 76 | $ 440,817 | $ 424,941 | -3.6% |
| Totals Nov 1-Nov 30, 2008 | 579 | 77 | $ 443,924 | $ 427,473 | -3.7% |
| Totals Oct 1-Oct 31, 2008 | 753 | 73 | $ 487,015 | $ 469,813 | -3.5% |
| Totals Sept 1 thru Sept 30, 2008 | 692 | 71 | $ 470,261 | $ 454,358 | -3.4% |
| Totals Aug 1-Aug 30, 2008 | 739 | 81 | $ 534,589 | $ 512,974 | -4.0% |
| Totals July 1 thru Jul 31, 2008 | 741 | 75 | $ 553,874 | $ 530,941 | -4.1% |
| Totals June 1 thru 30, 2008 | 646 | 79 | $ 554,940 | $ 531,878 | -4.2% |
| Totals May 1 thru 31, 2008 | 586 | 86 | $ 556,055 | $ 533,384 | -4.1% |
| Totals April 1 thru 30, 2008 | 605 | 86 | $ 563,357 | $ 537,089 | -4.7% |
| Totals March 1 thru 31, 2008 | 413 | 83 | $ 585,540 | $ 555,587 | -5.1% |
| Totals February 1 thru 29, 2008 | 380 | 96 | $ 645,075 | $ 608,224 | -5.7% |
| Totals January 1 thru 31, 2008 | 307 | 94 | $ 665,164 | $ 627,947 | -5.6% |
| Jan-Dec 2008 Totals and Average | 7153 |
When analyzing the price ranges of these sales the next chart reflects that approximately 35% of the sales were for Single Family Homes below $ 300,000. 23% of the sales were for properties in the range of $ 300,000 to $ 400,000; and approximately 15% were sales in the $ 400,000 to $ 500,000 price range. These total 83% in sales for properties below $ 500,000.
| Price Range | Units Sold | % Of | Average | Average | Variance | DOM/ |
| Annual | List Price | Sales Price | List to Sale | CDOM | ||
| Sales | ||||||
| 100,000 or less | 124 | 1.6% | $ 91,102 | $ 87,670 | -3.8% | 59/108 |
| 100,001-200,000 | 927 | 11.7% | $ 162,993 | $ 159,841 | -1.9% | 76/100 |
| 200,001-300,000 | 1699 | 21.5% | $ 254,346 | $ 254,116 | -0.1% | 77/100 |
| 300,001-400,000 | 1841 | 23.3% | $ 353,348 | $ 350,926 | -0.7% | 74/89 |
| 400,0001-500,000 | 1166 | 14.8% | $ 453,707 | $ 445,650 | -1.8% | 73/91 |
| 500,001-600,000 | 703 | 8.9% | $ 566,747 | $ 551,578 | -2.7% | 78/95 |
| 600,001-700,000 | 518 | 6.6% | $ 669,058 | $ 649,153 | -3.0% | 84/101 |
| 700,001-800,000 | 306 | 3.9% | $ 779,261 | $ 749,758 | -3.8% | 103/127 |
| 800,001-900,000 | 171 | 2.2% | $ 884,082 | $ 849,407 | -3.9% | 102/133 |
| 900,001-1,000,000 | 119 | 1.5% | $ 1,005,311 | $ 950,479 | -5.5% | 110/145 |
| 1,000,000-1,500,000 | 218 | 2.8% | $ 1,301,817 | $ 1,212,352 | -6.9% | 124/167 |
| 1,500,001-2,000,000 | 55 | 0.7% | $ 1,894,548 | $ 1,713,409 | -9.6% | 170/236 |
| 2,000,001 and up | 51 | 0.6% | $ 3,086,059 | $ 2,733,461 | -11.4% | 203/342 |
| Totals | 7898 | 100.0% |
A breakdown of 2009 Ventura County real estate Single Family Homes sales is furnished below by area. Ventura and Oxnard beaches saw the largest erosion between list and sales price. However if you look at the next two charts you will see that the prices witnessed in the time frame of 2005-2007, beach properties in 2009 did quite well.
| Area | No. of | Ave. List | Average | Variance | Days On |
| Properties | Price of | Sales Price | List vs. | Market | |
| Sold | Sold Properties | Sold Prop | Sales Price | (DOM/ | |
| 2009 | CDOM) | ||||
| Ventura Beaches | 41 | $ 1,229,371 | $ 1,107,337 | -11.02% | 123/142 |
| Oxnard Beaches | 234 | $ 697,499 | $ 645,307 | -8.09% | 97/125 |
| Santa Rosa Valley | 45 | $ 1,145,782 | $ 1,081,888 | -5.91% | 102/174 |
| Conejo Valley | 1793 | $ 661,914 | $ 633,165 | -4.54% | 94/120 |
| Camarillo | 733 | $ 475,872 | $ 461,203 | -3.18% | 77/101 |
| Simi Valley/Moorpark | 1520 | $ 452,763 | $ 443,286 | -2.14% | 85/98 |
| Ventura | 855 | $ 382,528 | $ 375,345 | -1.91% | 67/81 |
| Ojai/Oak View | 222 | $ 483,204 | $ 459,507 | -5.16% | 105/131 |
| Santa Paula | 225 | $ 273,111 | $ 267,931 | -1.93% | 75/109 |
| Oxnard | 2060 | $ 262,646 | $ 264,268 | 0.61% | 67/92 |
| Fillmore | 170 | $ 281,133 | $ 272,510 | -3.16% | 80/104 |
| Totals | 7898 |
The next chart shows prices for these areas for the period of 2005 through 2009.
| Ave. Sales | Ave. Sales | Ave. Sales | Ave. Sales | Ave Sales | % Variance | Total | Fearless | |
| Ventura County | Price | Price | Price | Price | Price | 2008 vs. | Sales | Forecast |
| Area | Year | Year | Year | Year | Year | 2009 | 2009 | For 2010 |
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Incr/Dec (-) | (SFH) | (Est. 8.3% inc) | |
| Ventura Beaches | $ 1,080,311 | $ 1,070,433 | $ 1,221,775 | $ 1,401,569 | $ 1,107,237 | -21.0% | 41 | $ 1,199,138 |
| Oxnard Beaches | $ 859,770 | $ 1,026,332 | $ 977,787 | $ 867,482 | $ 645,307 | -25.6% | 234 | $ 698,867 |
| Santa Rosa Valley | $ 1,456,401 | $ 1,485,174 | $ 1,452,259 | $ 1,284,433 | $ 1,081,888 | -15.8% | 45 | $ 1,171,685 |
| Conejo Valley | $ 814,430 | $ 855,124 | $ 864,427 | $ 700,032 | $ 633,165 | -9.6% | 1793 | $ 685,718 |
| Camarillo | $ 659,220 | $ 680,519 | $ 627,363 | $ 506,503 | $ 443,330 | -12.5% | 733 | $ 480,126 |
| Simi Valley/Moorpark | $ 601,631 | $ 637,835 | $ 612,482 | $ 481,277 | $ 461,203 | -4.2% | 1520 | $ 499,483 |
| Ventura | $ 577,898 | $ 590,389 | $ 560,724 | $ 420,263 | $ 459,507 | 9.3% | 855 | $ 497,646 |
| Ojai/Oak View | $ 731,112 | $ 914,597 | $ 866,142 | $ 585,891 | $ 375,345 | -35.9% | 222 | $ 406,499 |
| Santa Paula | $ 490,696 | $ 581,396 | $ 533,590 | $ 362,987 | $ 267,931 | -26.2% | 225 | $ 290,169 |
| Oxnard | $ 524,744 | $ 551,300 | $ 481,415 | $ 311,554 | $ 272,510 | -12.5% | 2060 | $ 295,128 |
| Fillmore | $ 544,961 | $ 526,330 | $ 522,058 | $ 330,042 | $ 264,268 | -19.9% | 170 | $ 286,202 |
Cities like Santa Paula, Fillmore showed approximately a 50% decrease in value when one compares prices of 2009 with the year 2007. One can detect other significant changes by comparing both charts.
Based on the numbers, the City of Ventura in the above chart shows that it fared well between 2008 and 2009. This may be true but sometimes the numbers are adjusted later so I would be cautious in what you read into these Ventura figures.
Ventura County real estate since 1994 has been quite good as noted in the table below. Appreciation for the 16 year period (1994 through 2009) shows an appreciation of 132% or an average of 8.2% increase each year since 1994. That is not bad averaging.
| Period | No. of | Ave. List | Average | Variance | Days On | Annual | Appreciation |
| Properties | Price of | Sales Price | List vs. | Market | Appreciation | (since 1995) | |
| Sold | Sold Properties | Sold Prop | Sales Price | (DOM/ | |||
| (Ventura Co.) | CDOM) | ||||||
| Year 2009 | 7,898 | $ 452,482 | $ 438,872 | 3.10% | 81/103 | -13.2% | 131.8% |
| Year 2008 | 7,274 | $ 527,813 | $ 505,577 | 4.40% | 84/122 | -27.7% | 167.0% |
| Year 2007 | 6,175 | $ 725,754 | $ 699,221 | 3.79% | 80/116 | -2.7% | 269.2% |
| Year 2006 | 8,591 | $ 736,610 | $ 718,618 | 2.50% | 63/83 | 9.1% | 279.5% |
| Year 2005 | 12,367 | $ 668,462 | $ 658,864 | 1.46% | 57 | 13.8% | 247.9% |
| Year 2004 | 11,486 | $ 586,093 | $ 578,979 | 1.23% | 32 | 25.7% | 205.7% |
| Year 2003 | 12,504 | $ 468,432 | $ 460,709 | 1.68% | 35 | 24.0% | 143.3% |
| Year 2002 | 6,872 | $ 377,761 | $ 371,466 | 1.69% | 37 | 25.9% | 96.2% |
| Year 2001 | 5,179 | $ 301,689 | $ 295,005 | 2.27% | 47 | 10.8% | 55.8% |
| Year 2000 | 5,092 | $ 272,611 | $ 266,214 | 2.40% | 50 | 10.6% | 40.6% |
| Year 1999 | 4,956 | $ 247,000 | $ 240,658 | 2.64% | 64 | 9.8% | 27.1% |
| Year 1998 | 4,655 | $ 226,338 | $ 219,229 | 3.24% | 78 | 7.2% | 15.8% |
| Year 1997 | 3,795 | $ 213,153 | $ 204,447 | 4.26% | 92 | 7.3% | 8.0% |
| Year 1996 | 3,671 | $ 199,586 | $ 190,474 | 4.78% | 95 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Year 1995 | 3,422 | $ 198,022 | $ 189,364 | 4.57% | 96 | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| Year 1994 | 3,352 | $ 200,932 | $ 191,773 | 4.78% | 93 | base year | base year |
| 16 Year Average | 5,757 | $ 338,903 | $ 330,314 | 2.60% | 49 | ||
| (1997-2009) |
Based on my studies it is expected that the Ventura County market will continue to solidify it is expected that growth in 2010 will approximate 8.3% (the same average that has been experienced since 1994). This will continue into 2011 after which the market will accelerate quite rapidly as illustrated in the following chart.
Factors impacting the market will be continued high unemployment; the lack of new job creation; pending higher taxes (both Federal and State); higher gasoline prices (there is every indication that oil will go back up to $ 100 or more per barrel); and businesses face additional higher employee cost with the National Health Plan being discussed in Congress.
Unemployment will tend to stay high until mid-year and there should be a noticeable decrease at that time. But the jobs will be minimum wage jobs which will not help real estate.
Despite all of this Ventura County real estate will still move ahead at about 8% in 2010. So “Out With The Old; In With The New?” will be a picture of 2009 in 2010 with a bias to the upside.
