Something Doesn’t Feel Right……
August 2nd, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
After awhile statistical information being just numbers becomes mesmerizing and some common sense has to come into play.
The numbers do what numbers are supposed to do….lay out what is happening and it is up to the individual to wade through and make sense of what that happening is.
This week for some reason the numbers are saying one thing but my gut instincts are telling me something else.
The real estate market has been going up and that is GOOD news. And as expected it is going up in a saw tooth configuration. BUT it appears that we may be looking at (what the stock market would call) a bears trap. Prices have been going up but over the last several months, especially the month of July, the price increases witnessed since the beginning of the year appear to be labored.
It may well be a great to do about nothing but one should be on guard for further decreases in real estate prices. I cannot believe I said that…..after all since November, 2008 I have been stating that the market is going up. But some doubt is setting in…….again just a feeling.
Contributors to this feeling is the unemployment rate; the lack of new job development; consumer confidence is waning; federal/state/locat taxes and fees have to go up.
- Yes the beige report has come out stating that the market and the economy has hit bottom.
- Yes there have been reports of new building going on throughout the United States.
- Yes it has been reported that home prices are going up (and they are).
BUT something doe not feel right so investors watch what you buy and where you buy. Home buyers watch what you buy and where you buy. Sellers hold fast and if you have to sell, sell because the price you get may be the best for several months. Sellers if you do not have to sell now, wait. The market will come to you.
For Ventura County:
Listings are down; sales are flat; year to year sales are up 20% and the County as a whole is a sellers market.
The beaches are the only place that continue as a buyers market and the inventory for Ventura and Oxnard beach areas is about a 10 month supply. As reflected in the table below all other areas are either neutral or seller markets.
Summer pattern is in play but come September we shall see if the market does a down turn. I certainly hope that this is not the case.
The following table has led me to my concerns. Things look rosy but if one plays with the numbers the rose losses some of its luster. But it may be a little early to cry wolf. We shall see.
I had expected the an upside month to month price increase continuation into the month of July, 2009 but as can be seen it was 50% less than June which raise the hairs on the back of my neck. It may be just an aberration but if this continues into August totals than something is afoot.
Price increases since November, 2008 continue to show a three month positive acceleration of 15%, so this tempers my concern but not entirely. Another factor which tempers my concern is the monthly % value increase/decrease since January 2008 has turn positive (+7.76%) after being in negative territory for about 18 months.
But look prices have been increasing steadily for the last 5-6 months so it just might be my instincts are out of whack. Let’s hope so.
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