There Are Bigger Things To ……
June 7th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Every once in awhile it is time to get some perspective. This photo from MSN puts things into some context.
There are bigger things for us to see, investigate and challenge. Life here on Earth is great; out there who knows! But we will go and find out. Why? We are humans and it is in our bones (oops! our DNA) to face up to challenges.
My musing for the week. Lao-tzu who lived 2,500 years ago wrote “Every human being’s essential nature is perfect and faultless, but after years of immersion in the world we easily forget our roots and take on a counterfeit nature”.
That is state we are in today. We have forgotten our roots.
The National Real Estate Market.
Things are turning good so says the late media coverage. Change has been happening since November, 2008 but now constructive signs have emerged showing that things are on the upswing.
Looking at the most recent government view of the National real estate market one can see that the East coast and of course Nevada, Arizona and California continue to be under pressure.
Other States in the Central region also appear to be under some minor pressure. States such as Nebraska, Kansas, etc., have declined but others such as Michigan, Illinois to name a few have shown signs of improvement.
The driver for a healthy real estate market is financing and the banks have been struggling on a number of fronts to get the real estate financing righted. But it takes time. The other thing that will help real estate is lower unemployment, new job creation and less help from Washington, DC. When Congress gets involved all things fall apart.
When looking at the real estate market (first quarter of 2008) approximately one year ago every State has had a declined except for Alaska. It is the only State that has shown appreciation throughout Country over the last year.
This is the 1st quarter, 2009 National Real Estate Market.
This what the market looked like in fourth quarter of 2008.
This was the picture of the National real estate market in the 1st quarter of 2008.
Ventura County.
The squeeze continues.
Listings continue to decrease; sales are now decreasing; markets in Santa Paula and Oxnard show minimal inventory while the beach area show significant inventory.
Fillmore, Santa Paula, Camarillo, Oxnard, Ventura and Simi Valley/Moorpark are now showing as seller areas. One would expect to see prices starting to increase in these areas shortly.
The Santa Rosa Valley, Oak View/Ojai and the beach areas are buyer markets. The Conejo Valley is neutral at this time.
Prices are showing signs of increasing. As one can expect it appears that the lower end price range properties have been absorbed; there is some preliminary sales evidence suggesting that properties in the $ 400,000 to $ 750,000 are now attracting buyers.
The following table indicates some price upswing. It is preliminary and a few more months are needed to show a trend but there is some evidence that price appreciation may now be taking place.
The monthly value % does note that the lost in home equity has started to decrease and compared to November, 2008, there has been a 50% increase in property values in the County. Some will see this as a 50% decrease in the loss of property value but the bottom line is that the market has changed and November, 2008 appears to have been the bottom of the down cycle.
Now if unemployment and new jobs are created in Ventura County everything will be super great to have a significant advance.
I expect to see the growth rate following the chart below. So hang on…..it is going to be a lot of fun.
As noted in the last illustration we are now entering into the gold run up. We are certainly blessed to live in this area of the Country. Ventura County home prices are set to explode.
There will be many people who will become millionaires from the real estate they purchased during the down turn.
Those that want to become millionaires should be buying now because if you don’t you will have to wait for another 10-12 years before the cycle starts again.
Comments are welcomed.
