Archive for June, 2009
The Elephant Is Moving…..
June 28th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Ever so slowly the real estate is starting to move upward.
Politics will play a hand which will delay the acceleration of price movement but eventually the market will march to its own music.
This upward movement is not only occurring in Ventura County but is taking place throughout the United States.
For investors I am still recommending Oklahoma (Oklahoma City and Enid); Texas and I still recommend that one keeps an eye on Michigan. I will go into more detail for investment properties in my annual review which will be available in July.
As can be noted in the Table below this past week was the first time in many months that listings have increasedin Ventura County. Previously there was a steady decline. This may be just an blip of an occurrence but it stood out.
As noted in this blog over the last several months prices are starting to creep upward. Nothing dynamic but the prices are solidifying the base that has been in effect since November, 2008.
There will be some sideways price activity over the next several months but the worse is over. In fact it has been reported recently that appreciation in Ventura County stands at 5.8% since the beginning of the year. You will note on the chart above that one should expect an 8.7% increase for 2009. In 2010 the appreciation will increase to 17.9%.
The two things needed for the real estate market to really explode upward are new job creation and a significant decrease in unemployment (neither of will happen for a few months). Why? Taxes and added government cost to employers via health care coverage.
There needs to be another element in play before real estate gets it legs and that is consumer confidence which at this time appears to be getting positive.
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Things Might Be Better Then…..
June 21st, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
- You thought you were safe. Those with high credit scores may be in for a shock….someone can steal your identity. The following article is worth the reading. If you do not protect yourself no one else will. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/YourCreditRating/High-credit-scores-Be-careful.aspx
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U.S. Postal System: RIP
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Posted Jun 15 2009, 06:05 AM by Douglas McIntyre. http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/?fpn=u%20s%20postal%20system%20rip. This articlediscusses the demise of the postal system as we know it because of broad band and other electronics medias that are now on the drawing board. It is not going to occur over night but it will happen. The Internet is about to claim another victim.
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Noted in the United Kingdom were some large supermarkets in England are now getting into the banking business. I wonder when that is going to come over to the States.
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In an article read this week…..”Appraisals Roil Real Estate Deals” (Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2009 by James Hagerty and Ruth Simons)…..the authors note that very conservative estimates on homes is making refinancing and selling extremely difficult. With banks now in charge of appraisals (per se) is akin to the fox acting as a guard in the chicken coop. Home prices (at least for the time being) will be controlled by banks and not the market. “Since the code bars loan officers, mortgage brokers and real estate agents from any role in selecting appraisers, this has encouraged lenders to outsource the selection to appraisal-management companies which take a sizable cut of the appraisal fee. As a result, appraisers are under pressure to do it faster, do it cheaper (quote from article).” And just watch what happens with multiple appraisals. Multiple appraisals will take place if the buyer elects to switch lenders because of better deal. It will be surprising to see if each appraisal comes in around the same value. To minimize this cost the Mortgage Bankers Association is looking into the possibility to make the appraisal “portable” from one lender to another. We shall see.
National Real Estate.
It appears that prices are starting to change direction….upward. Still overall the market is still trying to get legs. It is taking longer largerly due to high unemployment in some areas and the continued lack of new jobs creation.
Ventura County.
One word: SLOW. But prices are edging upward. Overall sales in Ventura County are 28% higher (comparing periods Jan. 1 thru June 20 for the years 2008 and 2009). Overall Ventura County is a seller’s market but there are areas such as Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura and Oxnard Beaches that still remain buyer markets.
The Conejo Valley and Ojai/Oak View remain neutral while the areas of Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula and Fillmore are seller markets. In fact there were no recorded sales in Fillmore over the last week which I find interesting (but not unusual).
Unemployment and job creation need to come into line for the real estate market to get legs. It will go up on its own but very slowly. Many people are staying put and waiting the market out. The “squeeze effect”, as I call it.
When the market gets legs, watch out.
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There Are Bigger Things To ……
June 7th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Every once in awhile it is time to get some perspective. This photo from MSN puts things into some context.
There are bigger things for us to see, investigate and challenge. Life here on Earth is great; out there who knows! But we will go and find out. Why? We are humans and it is in our bones (oops! our DNA) to face up to challenges.
My musing for the week. Lao-tzu who lived 2,500 years ago wrote “Every human being’s essential nature is perfect and faultless, but after years of immersion in the world we easily forget our roots and take on a counterfeit nature”.
That is state we are in today. We have forgotten our roots.
The National Real Estate Market.
Things are turning good so says the late media coverage. Change has been happening since November, 2008 but now constructive signs have emerged showing that things are on the upswing.
Looking at the most recent government view of the National real estate market one can see that the East coast and of course Nevada, Arizona and California continue to be under pressure.
Other States in the Central region also appear to be under some minor pressure. States such as Nebraska, Kansas, etc., have declined but others such as Michigan, Illinois to name a few have shown signs of improvement.
The driver for a healthy real estate market is financing and the banks have been struggling on a number of fronts to get the real estate financing righted. But it takes time. The other thing that will help real estate is lower unemployment, new job creation and less help from Washington, DC. When Congress gets involved all things fall apart.
When looking at the real estate market (first quarter of 2008) approximately one year ago every State has had a declined except for Alaska. It is the only State that has shown appreciation throughout Country over the last year.
This is the 1st quarter, 2009 National Real Estate Market.
This what the market looked like in fourth quarter of 2008.
This was the picture of the National real estate market in the 1st quarter of 2008.
Ventura County.
The squeeze continues.
Listings continue to decrease; sales are now decreasing; markets in Santa Paula and Oxnard show minimal inventory while the beach area show significant inventory.
Fillmore, Santa Paula, Camarillo, Oxnard, Ventura and Simi Valley/Moorpark are now showing as seller areas. One would expect to see prices starting to increase in these areas shortly.
The Santa Rosa Valley, Oak View/Ojai and the beach areas are buyer markets. The Conejo Valley is neutral at this time.
Prices are showing signs of increasing. As one can expect it appears that the lower end price range properties have been absorbed; there is some preliminary sales evidence suggesting that properties in the $ 400,000 to $ 750,000 are now attracting buyers.
The following table indicates some price upswing. It is preliminary and a few more months are needed to show a trend but there is some evidence that price appreciation may now be taking place.
The monthly value % does note that the lost in home equity has started to decrease and compared to November, 2008, there has been a 50% increase in property values in the County. Some will see this as a 50% decrease in the loss of property value but the bottom line is that the market has changed and November, 2008 appears to have been the bottom of the down cycle.
Now if unemployment and new jobs are created in Ventura County everything will be super great to have a significant advance.
I expect to see the growth rate following the chart below. So hang on…..it is going to be a lot of fun.
As noted in the last illustration we are now entering into the gold run up. We are certainly blessed to live in this area of the Country. Ventura County home prices are set to explode.
There will be many people who will become millionaires from the real estate they purchased during the down turn.
Those that want to become millionaires should be buying now because if you don’t you will have to wait for another 10-12 years before the cycle starts again.
Comments are welcomed.
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