We Got What We Wished For….It Isn’t Very Nice!
May 24th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
My musing for the past several weeks.
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California voters (small number) decided enough was enough. Politicians on the other hand have concluded that voters don’t know what they want so “enough is enough” probably won’t fly. The next step is to replace the politicians. We did that by replacing Gov. Davis a number of years ago basically because of increased DMV fees. Well guess what….we not only have increased DMV fees but a lot of other fees. We also have to manage the activities of the non-elected deal brokers.
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Is California going to be the 1st State to declare bankruptcy?
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It appears that the brightest are leaving California. It is also being talked about that our school system is in the toilet. Funny how people outside of California have seen this, the general population has seen this but the politicians and teacher unions have not. Hmmmm….a pause here.
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I also see the blame game setting in. A number of reporters are starting to say that the voters are the culprits for the problems in California. The initiatives that have been passed over the last 10-20 years were not thought out by the voters who “want things but do not want to pay for them”. Well part of that is true but what isn’t being said is that these same newspapers made recommendations which many voters followed. Many voters think that newspapers are above the fray and make their recommendations based on what is good for society. Well it’s the dumb following the dumber.
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Ms. California stuck to her beliefs (whether you agree or disagree with her) which is a strength that many of us have given up. Look at the current situation. When the current administration speaks all others fall in line…..money is such a strong tool. The only thing that is piling up higher is the BS we are getting from Washington.
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Talking about blame game…..the Washington day time drama is a reality sage. He said, she said! Torturing….I didn’t know; I wasn’t told…..what are these people there for. Lots of excuses. Definitely need replacements in Washington at all levels of Government.
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Talk about adding to the stress. A number of lenders will now verify appraisals 3 days prior to the Note date and require the borrower to sign the HVCC Disclosure-Appraisal Notification and Acknowledgement. Yikes what does the seller do if they disagree with the appraisal. I can see “out of area” appraisers continuing to slam local values. I can also see a large number of law suits.
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I haven’t seen much in capping salaries of late. I wonder why? Hollywood stars, sport figures, television news casters, anybody making over $ 250,000 per year……what are they thinking? Cap and tax……could it be????????
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I see that my home State (New Jersey) finally has the lead in something (speeding tickets). Based on the article http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourCar/Worst-states-for-drivers.aspx and the chart created by the National Motorist Association listed below are the worst to best States for speeding tickets. So Jersey travelers be on the alert. I was surprise that California was not in the top 5 States, but give them time….they will get there.
National Motorists Association rankings, from worst to best:
| Rank | State | Rank | State | Rank | State |
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| 1 | New Jersey | 18 | Florida | 35 | Hawaii |
| 2 | Ohio | 19 | Pennsylvania | 36 | Arkansas |
| 3 | Maryland | 20 | North Carolina | 37 | Alaska |
| 4 | Louisiana | 21 | Alabama | 38 | Kansas |
| 5 | New York | 22 | Rhode Island | 39 | Mississippi |
| 6 | Illinois | 23 | West Virginia | 40 | Wisconsin |
| 7 | Delaware | 24 | New Hampshire | 41 | Utah |
| 8 | Virginia | 25 | Arizona | 42 | South Dakota |
| 9 | Washington | 26 | New Mexico | 43 | Indiana |
| 10 | Massachusetts | 27 | Missouri | 44 | Minnesota |
| 11 | Colorado | 28 | Texas | 45 | North Dakota |
| 12 | Oregon | 29 | Oklahoma | 46 | Kentucky |
| 13 | Tennessee | 30 | Nevada | 47 | Nebraska |
| 14 | California | 31 | Georgia | 48 | Montana |
| 15 | Michigan | 32 | Connecticut | 49 | Idaho |
| 16 | Vermont | 33 | South Carolina | 50 | Wyoming |
| 17 | Maine | 34 | Iowa |
- From the perspective of one economist the recession may be over.
As bad as it seems today, according to Robert J. Gordon, an acclaimed macro-economist and professor at Northwester University, we’ve lived through worse, and not all that long ago.
It was a lot worse in 1981-82, too, because the size of the work force was smaller then. So the same number of claims represents a larger percentage. Adjusted for the size of the work force, today’s claims are just a little more than half of what they were at the 1982 peak. The recession? It’s over! Read the following article which the author researched to verify his agreement with the professor. Interesting reading. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/the-recession-it-is-over-economist-says.aspx
One thing jumps out of the chart that has nothing to do with Gordon’s indicator — the fact that in this recession, we still haven’t exceeded the number of claims in the 1981-82 recession.
The National Real Estate Market.
The areas that have been my focus for investments have fared rather well during this real estate down turn (Oklahoma, Louisiana and Texas (although Texas has had more damage occurring over the last several months).
The latest Federal Housing Finance Agency report show that these States (shown as West South Central) as having a negative appreciation of -0.5%. The other sector (East South Central which I also like) had a negative appreciation rate of -3.0%. California (the Pacific area) is experiencing a -22.1% negative appreciation.
Ventura County Real Estate.
Things are looking brighter and the market is getting stronger.
Mentioned a number of times is the jack-in-the-box scenario that is forming now.
Listings have decreased significantly over the last 18 months (from 5,250 in November 10,2007 down to 2,069 as of May 23, 2009: approximately a 50% decrease).
Sales in Ventura County have increased 32% in 2009 compared to the same comparable period of 2008.
This year there have been 2,852 sales for the period January 1 through May 23, 2009; for the same period in 2008, there were 2,161 sales.
There is a squeeze occurring. We have a commodity (homes) and there is a pent up demand for this commodity and as soon as the jack-in-the-box is opened prices will accelerate big time.
Ventura County areas that are now seller markets consist of Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula, and just recently Fillmore.
Areas that remain buyer markets consist of Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura Beaches, Oxnard Beaches and the Ojai/Oak View area. Conejo Valley is neutral.
For Ventura County the plot thickens. Unemployment and job creation will be necessary to see a healthy real estate market. The market will start to go up but the pace of the upturn is dependent on jobs and a decrease in unemployment. If jobs continue to lag and unemployment increases or stays high the market will go side-ways for a period of time but the bottom (in general) has been set.
Comments are welcomed.
