Year 2009 Fearless Forecast for Ventura County Real Estate.
December 14th, 2008 Categories: Real Estate News
The year of 2008 has been a disaster for Ventura County. As shown in the chart below areas that basically held their own were beach properties especially Ventura Beaches. Oxnard Beaches and the Santa Rosa Valley property decreased approximately 10%.
As stated previously owners of beach property are holding onto a gold mine. If you can keep it, do so. The rewards will be outstanding for you.
The inland areas of Santa Paula, Fillmore and Ojai were devastated with property decreases of approximately 50% or more.
Conejo Valley, Moorpark, Simi Valley and Ventura saw property values decreased approximately 25% overall.
Since July, 2008 the downward trend has accelerated significantly and this most often shows the signs of a bottom taking place (which I think has happened) Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s For Week Ending July 26 2008.
The year 2008 was not very kind to real estate.
What will real estate look like at the end of 2009. It appears that 2009 will be a better year with a growth rate of approximately 7.6%.
Two economic situations can change this forecast: unemployment and job creation. If unemployment increases significantly and there is no (or a decrease) in jobs then 2009 can be another disasters year for the County.
Expect unemployment to increase at State and Local levels. Companies will more than likely not increase hiring especially small companies. There will be some exceptions but companies may keep a lid on hiring until the last quarter of 2009.
Self employment will increase significantly.
Of greater importance is the consumer. For the first time in decades debt is being lowered, people are saving money, and people are not spending. This will not bode will for the overall economy.
See article Killer Debt Is Like Quick Sand where it is outlined how people can help themselves shred debt. It will take time but it can be done.
With the new administration one can expect tax increases, however these will not be noticeable until the end of 2009 and 2010. Then its’ a wait and see game.
The States will definitely increase taxes somewhere along the line, earlier than Federal. Hints of an increase in sales tax, auto registration and State income tax are already on the table.
Any increase in taxes will force people to lessen spending except for food and gasoline. Oh….a State gas tax increase is also on the table. Remember when gas was $ 4.00 per gallon. Well expect that again except in this case most of it will be attributed to State tax increases on gasoline.
Foreigners, especially from China, are in frenzy in their purchases of United States real estate.
Your comments are welcomed.
