Archive for November, 2008
Quiet Before The Storm!
November 30th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
It’s Thanksgiving week and relatively quiet on the residential real estate front.
Storm clouds are forming and the surf is starting to get rough. We know we are in for a good drenching, it is a matter of when and how much.
Various articles addressed the fall of mortgage interest rates but as mentioned in Get In Line and prior articles, interest rates should have been falling for a number of months but banks elected not to pass the cuts down to the consumer.
Banks will continue to play games on the mortgage and appraisal front (see article Desktop Appraisals) which will infuriate many people. This will continue until a number of people refuse to sell at any price and that is starting to take root now.
A lenders business is to make loans. People bulk, loan activity becomes slow, and soon banks begin to recognize that they have to bend with the market. Loan standards will still be tougher so this will eliminate a number of borrowers.
Commercial properties are beginning to tilt to the downside. Similar to residential loans, commercial loans are becoming difficult to get.
In a recent article, Its Not A Pretty Picture, it was noted that the National real estate market, especially in the South, has held up very well. In fact a number of gurus are stating that the bottom has been reached. But be careful where you buy. Location, location, location is still the major consideration in the purchase of a residential or investment property.
It is going to take time for all the pieces to come together as noted in the article uncle-sams-enron- but once they do watch out because the real estate market will explode upward. Needless to say one of the major pieces needed is consumer confidence.
When this occurs there will be a big change in who has real estate property and who doesn’t. Owning real estate will feel heavenly. The only thing that will be more important than real estate itself will be water.
But for the moment, the consumer is going to be very selective in how money is spent. The big sale is going to be scrutinized and the consumers sense of value becomes a premium.
Side Bar: Little is being said but the general population has lost confidence in its major institutions and government (federal, state and local). The feel they have been betrayed and understand that it is they that will have to pay for the financial chaos that was created for them by both Wall Street and Government.
In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, “Some Consumers Say Wall Street Failed Them”, by Eleanor Laise, it was pointed out that many of safety nets that had been advertised and sold have exploded to the detriment of Main Street. Both Government and Wall Street created risks that are now the responsibility of the consumer.
Ventura County Real Estate.
It is the same story (as has been the case for the last several months).
- Listings are falling.
- Number of properties sold remains stable.
- Days on the market continues to show some decrease.
- Variance between list price and actual sales price is approximately 5%.
- Most property sales are occurring below $ 300,000.
- All of this will continue for a few more weeks before most see a trend change.
Your comments are welcomed.
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It’s Not Pretty. Picture Review of The National Real Estate Market.
November 26th, 2008 Categories: Real Estate News
The real estate market has changed significantly over the last quarter and dramatically since the 4th quarter of 2007.
And with it, the National (and a number of regional) economy appears to be in the toilet.
Summarized on the United States real estate maps below is the reported 3rd quarter, 2008 reported National real estate market results issued by Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). For comparison I have included the real estate landscape of the 2nd quarter, 2008, the 1st quarter, 2008 with the last quarter, 2007 noted.
The southern States (Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama) continue to hold their own and continue to be good investment areas although they have weakened over the last quarter.
Another investment area to consider is Tennessee.
Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota are areas that one should view as investment areas. Especially North and South Dakota. But for me those States area TOO COLD. (Remember one of my conditions for real estate investment is to invest in areas that you may have to live in. Needless to say I prefer not having to live in the Dakota’s).
I have been reading various articles that perhaps Florida would be a good place but most guru’s suggest that 2010 is probably the year to start investing in this State. I have not been a fan of Florida so you are on your own regarding that State.
Washington and Utah (as expected), Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Mexico real estate have weakened somewhat decisively since the last quarterly report. Both Washington and Utah are expensive areas that make real estate investing a challenge. To break even or have a positive cash flow will mean a 30-50% down payment.
Arizona has reverted back to weakness. At the 2nd quarter, 2008 it appeared that it my have started back on the upswing but that was a false break out.
California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida negativity has doubled from the 1st quarter, 2008 to the 3rd quarter, 2008.
California in the 1st quarter, 2008 showed a negative growth of -10.6%. Now in the third quarter it is showing a -20.8 %. Nevada was a -20.9% up from -10.3%; Arizona earlier in the year was -5.1% and the 3rd quarter is accelerated to -13.5%. Finally Florida was -8.2% in the first quarter of 2008 and increased to -16% in the 3rd quarter of 2008.
Within California, the worse of the worse continues to be Merced; Stockton; Modesto; Salinas; Vallejo; Riverside; Bakersfield; Yuba City and Fresno.
Which prompts me to suggest that one should add California to their watch list. But getting investments at an extremely low price (about $ 125,000) will be difficult in California (if one wants to have a positive cash flow, with minimal down). Candidate areas for investment are the worse of the worse areas mentioned above.
It appears that high end homes (approximately $ 1 Million or more) have decreased approximately 20% during this down cycle, while homes valued at approximately $ 400,000 or less have decreased about 45%. This is quite a variance and I suspect that homes valued at less than $ 400,000 will accelerate upward faster within the next few months.
Help is coming. Mentioned in this blog on a number of occassions (the latest being get-in-line) is the disconnect between the Federal Reserve and banks regarding mortgage interest rates. But this disconnect appears to be have been spliced together and it now appears that mortgage rates will start falling to (are you ready) 5-5 1/4% rates (or less) shortly.
Side bar: The real estate market is one of the elements that will drive this economy. Upgrading the United States infra-structures for bridges, roads, water is the second leg that will help the economy upward. Manufacturing (autos being one) is the third element necessary to get the economy going upward.
A redirection of corn for ethenol should be reviewed. Sugar cane appears to be a better option to use for fuel use. Brazil is going wild developing this oil alternative. Sugar cane is not produced significantly in this country BUT we are smart and can grow anything. It becomes “is the price right”.
Side bar: (Be quite). Ventura County real estate has certainly decreased but not at the rate of most areas. In fact it has performed remarkedly well and it is expected to do extremely well over the next 4-5 years.
The damper to Ventura County real estate will be unemployment. Unemployment in the County is currently about 7+%. 5.5 % or less should be the target to have an extremely good real estate market.
Back to the subject. Pictured below is the 3rd quarter, 2008 picture of the National real estate market.
This is what the real estate market looked like at the end of the 2nd quarter, 2008.
This is the 1st quarter, 2008 real estate picture.
This was the appearance of the National real estate market at the 4th quarter of 2007.
Your comments please.
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Time To Go Back To The Future. Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending Nov 22, 2008
November 23rd, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Real estate is on the rebound.
A recent article in Forbes listed five cities on the re-bound. Aside from Seattle, Los Angeles was #5 on the list. They also stated that Detroit was the place to stay away from.
Side bar: For investors I still think that Oklahoma, Texas (not as much now but it is still OK), Mississippi, Louisiana and Tennessee (I’m late on this one) are great areas to invest. Detroit still has a ways to go but keep an eye on Michigan because within the next year or two it will be a great place to invest.
So there is an attitude change in real estate with a number of guru’s voicing optimism that the bottom has indeed been reached. So what now?
Remember our domestic shock and awe experience with gasoline. When gas hit $4.00 or more per gallon, this put a shock into the system. People were stunned with such a quick run up and even today with gasoline prices declining people have not been able to put that shock behind them.
Side bar: Coal. There are applications of converting coal into oil. From a military standpoint this is the way to go with the current world conditions. Our military cannot be held hostage to the oil cartel. We need the capacity to defend ourselves. To be sure no one else will defend us.
People just do not believe what they are seeing with oil and think the current down turn is only respite. People expect prices to go up again. (What ever happened to those investigations that were to isolate the culprit(s) and reasons for oil prices to run up so quickly. How soon we forget.)
Expect the same attitude from the consumer regarding real estate. They want to see a sustained balance in the market before acting. A great number of people were shocked at the high prices during the period of 2001-2005; now they are more shocked at the home price declines.
Do not expect a buyer’s rush into the market. People are nervous and will be slow to act. But real estate prices will go up and they will go up farther than the previous peaks.
Add to the mix ”what is the new administration going to do?” My thoughts suggest that we are going to take time to go back to the future.
Despite all of the news reports history tends to balance what administrations can and won’t do. Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, Clinton, Kennedy are being highlighted in most news accounts as to what one can expect from the new administration.
What did these folks have in common. They created changes starting from a base of war and people’s exasperation’s.
But (and this is a characteristic with Americans) we have and know there is opportunity and optimism, so we do not dwell on the negative too long. We are growth and future oriented. It’s a gene that has been passed down from our Pilgrim parents and others that have made the United States their home.
Politicians know that big changes if done quickly will impact people and the economy, negatively (in general). So there will lots of balloons released to get readings of the national mood before implementing wholesale “new deals”. People can always change whose in office. They may have to wait two or four years but eventually they get what they want.
Ventura County.
It continues to be the same story. Listings are decreasing; number of properties sold continues to show increases; days on the market for actual home sales appears to have settle in at about 3 months and the variance between list price and actual sales price continues to hover around 5%.
But watch for the surprise. The spring is being pressed down into a small container and once it pops prices will go upward, not quickly at first, but with a vengeance within a short period of time. There is a pent up buyer’s need building. View the last chart of this article to get a sense of prices that will occur.
Look at inventory noted in the second chart below. It has decreased from 15 months down to approximately 4 months within the year. This suggests a neutral market at this time. Generally when inventory decreases to 3 months or less it becomes a sellers market. We are almost there.
Unemployment (approximately 7+% in the County) will initially act as a control on real estate prices but this control will be short lived.
2008 Ventura County monthly SALES. Inventory is spiraling downward. Good news for sellers because shortly it will be a SELLERS market in Ventura County.
And this is what one can expect happening when people sense that the market is balanced and they have a feeling of certainty. It is happening now.
Comments please.
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Desktop Appraisals.
November 22nd, 2008 Categories: "Say What? Just Some Real Estate Talk
I knew desk top appraisals played a part in the funding process but I had never been involved in a situation in which a desktop appraisal killed a real estate deal……until this past Friday (everything bad in real estate happens on a Friday).
On this particular property there were two on-site appraisals of the property. The first was done by the sellers because they wanted to know what their home was worth and set a list price that would generate a quick sale.
The property was listed and within a few weeks an offer made, there were the negotiations and a buy price set and off we went into escrow.
Shortly the buyer’s/lender appraiser came to look at the property and appraised it at the negotiated price (which was lower than the sellers appraised value but that was OK. Yes, I was a little upset because both appraisals were accomplished within weeks of each other but I understand that these are opinions of value at the time of the appraisal and it is understandable they would not be the same).
All was well until Friday when someone sitting at a desk, miles away (they could have been sitting on the moon) decided that $ 35,000 cut was in order. I don’t know exactly why the decrease except it was indirectly stated that it kept the price in balance with the neighborhood (I have no idea what that means).
Which is fine except that none of the neighbors had a pool in the yard; none of the neighbors had the built in BBQ, water fountains, and turf in the back yard; none of the neighbors had a brand new air-conditioner/heater and I could go on. I doubt any of this was shown on the statistical pages being looked at.
The area where this property is located has been hit hard with foreclosures and prices have dropped significantly but it appears to me that lenders exacerbate the problem with their sense of value for a neighborhood.
Two appraisers showed the property’s worth at a far higher dollar figure but what rule this particular day was the statistical document that sat on some-body’s desk, many miles away making an assessment of this home’s value.
When the numbers (on-site versus desktop) are looked at there’s was a significant cut that if annualized on a percentage basis (I estimated higher than 65%) would exceed any responsible threshold.
That is tough to take and wholly unwarranted. I know of no place in California or elsewhere that has suffered that type of value decrease. It certainly soured the seller in this case and left me with a bad taste in my mouth.
Something is wrong with desk top appraisals (sour grapes…..you bet I lost a deal) and desk top appraisals is an area that really has to be looked at. There is vodoo statistical science at play. I suspect that the lender will echo some corn feed reflection of their responsibilities, the risk involved, and some other story to justify their appearance of righteousness in their assessment of value and it would be garbage.
While lamenting over my disaster other associates began telling me of their experiences with desk top appraisals. One had $ 90,000 taken off the on-site appraised value; another $ 65,000 and others in the neighborhood of $ 35,000 to $ 50,000. I was told I was lucky because more often than not they were told of their desk top cuts a day or two before escrow closing. I had a week.
From what I gathered from the talks, all of these potential sales fell out of escrow.
Maybe it is me that is living on another planet but (repeating myself) desktop appraisals must be examined because today it appears they are doing more harm than good.
Comments please.
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Get In Line. Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending Nov 15, 2008
November 16th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
On the National level the elephant has started to move.
There has been movement on the mortgage side of things. Unfortunately 85% of the people needing help are already out of their homes. The remaining 10-15% will have difficulties jumping through all of the hoops but a small number will prevail. Which is good. At least some people have been helped.
In a previous article http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/08/31/ it it was noted that banks were in the cross hairs of the Federal Reserve.
It took longer than expected but this past week the Federal Reserve used a public forum to chastise banks.
In no uncertain words banks were told by the Reserve and Treasury to make loans. Paraphrasing, Mr. Paulson reminded banks that their business is to make loans. So make them.
This sounds good but the bank industry will take its time and loans will still be difficult to get because of the stringent requirements now in place. If they become too stringent then banks face another rebuke from the Reserve and the next slap will be felt and action will take place. We shall see.
The Federal Reserve has been injecting money into the system and wants interest rates lower and they have stepped up to the plate to get the job done.
Banks have not passed anything to the consumer sector yet. That is about to change.
With the activity the Federal Reserve has taken over the last 5 months, mortgage rates should be closer to 5-5 1/4 %; instead up until a few weeks ago they were kept artificially high at 6 to 6 1/4%. Within the last week they have dipped to 5 3/4% and they should go lower.
Interest on credit cards should also start downward; likewise with auto loans and other consumer credit. Again we shall see.
The horse has been let out of the corral. Other sectors are now seeking government money so do not be surprise to see additional monies being given to many companies. If done correctly Government should end up with quite a profit within the next 5-10 years.
That doesn’t mean a reduction in our taxes which will be going up shortly but Government will have lots of money from the profits it will receive. Oops….Government is not suppose to make a profit.
From my readings it appears that an additional 220 banks have asked for help; the cities of Chicago, New York and Atlanta are asking for government help; the State of California has asked for help; the auto industry is asking for help; American Express has just been helped; there have been stories of various cities hinting that they are going to declare bankruptcy and the list grows every day.
At some point someone has to step back and say enough is enough. Simply printing money and helping everyone that is in trouble at some point is going to bite us all in the rear end.
I better find my place in line.
Compounding the situation is the consumer.
They are slimming down their expenses and are particular in what they are purchasing.
Expect retail stores (which have suffered a significant down side over the last several months) to expand on discounts to attract buyers.
With Christmas around the corner, retailers will pull out all the stops to attract buyers. Unfortunately this effort will not meet retailer expectation.
The exception to date is the much maligned WalMart. They appear to have their act together and sales have been up.
Unfortunately the Barney Frank and associates that caused this financial crisis now are heading the committees that are legislating policy to resolve the crisis. I suspect these folks will go unscathed and their actions will be but a footnote buried in some appendix.
On the National level, 3rd Quarter, 2008 OFHEO data has yet to be released but it appears that the rest of the country is holding it own.
The Urban Land Institute in its “Emerging Trends” suggest consideration of investing in land and multi-family properties. It was noted that developers are selling land for cents on the dollar and because of (1) downsizing and (2-my add) the mortgage mess, people are renting and multiple family dwelling may be a good investment at this time.
As a caveat I would suggest that any investment in multi-family properties be in locations that would minimize driving for employment. People are minimizing expenses and it would bode well for the investor to purchase good locations that allow for minimal driving.
Side bar: Recently I read of a new technology which will be changing computers and storage. It is called a memristor and its claim to fame is that it can remember electrical states even when the component that it is in is off.
I see all sort of application for this technology in areas of making things paperless and wireless. In the article when-luxury-items-become-necessities/ addressed were a list of items that may become necessities in the future home.
In my minds eye I see memristor as an application that make these listed items become in-house use faster than originally thought. Keep an eye on this.
Side Bar: Internal Revenue Service and Mortgage Interest: A possible audit area is how taxpayers treat mortgage interest especially after refinancing their home. RED FLAG … be aware.
Refinancing what is called acquistion debt for real estate is not a problem. However, equity debt which is secured by the taxpayers home can be a major problem. Equity debt derives from pulling money out of your home and using the funds for something other than real estate.
When taxpayers receive their 1099 at the end of the year the bank shows the interest paid. It is up to the taxpayer to stipulate if the refinancing was used for real estate (then a 100% deduction) or if the interest has to be apportioned (part for real estate is deductible).
The IRS has been looking at mortgage interest for a number of years and possibly in the next tax season, taxpayers will receive a correspondence letter from the IRS asking what they did with their refinancing funds.
Should any of the funds have been used for something other than real estate, there can be an adjustment to prior years, coupled with a fine and interest for the additional tax the IRS says that is due.
It can be complicated but the Government needs money and this is an excellent source for additional funds.
Conforming Mortgage Side bar: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac high cost area conforming loans for the period of January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009 are listed below by County (CA).
Ventura County Real Estate
Ventura County real estate continues to be slow.
- Listing continue to decrease;
- number of sales continue to decrease;
- days on the market continue its decrease;
- there was a slight up tick in sales noting perhaps that sales prices will now start upward.
- And there was an increase in the variance between list price and actual sales price but this was due to one property in the Santa Rosa Valley area.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Waiting For The Next Shoe To Drop. Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending Nov 8, 2008
November 9th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
All is quiet on the home front (relatively speaking). Mortgage rates continue to do a saw tooth scenario. Banks claim they have lots of money but say potential borrowers do not meet the updated rules of qualifying.
It appears that the commercial side of real estate is now wavering and is headed downward. This (in my mind) suggests that the residential side has started upward.
With the transition of the White House now going on it will be quiet for a period but the politicians will be doing their thing in the background. Watch out. It will get nastier before it gets better.
There are signs that the economy is going south at a faster pace than most want and this will have an impact on the residential and commercial real estate markets. This puts greater stress on the general population and individuals in particular. All are looking for quick relief to problems inherited by over zealous politicians.
It is easy to blame the politicians but the problems that we have are self-generated.
There is a significan part of the population who want things done for nothing and have no problem transferring their needs to some one else. When it doesn’t occur they get mad and expect government to do more.
Government is only too happy to cater to this group. It wants them to remain dependent on government which gives government its justification of being and doing what it does. We tell them this is what we want and they do it. This has been on going for nearly 75 years and only periodically do people reflect and say no, we do not want to go that route.
All government can do is to increase taxes to satisfy the needs of the population. Soon this runs it course and everyone suffers. That is spreading not only the wealth but it also makes most poor and makes government bigger. But there are a great number of people who think this is the model that should be in place and it something that we vote on every four years.
This market downturn does show how inter-linked we are with the rest of the world. Most countries are suffering as we are. Shortly we will see signs of protecting one’s own and various barriers will be into place which will exacerbate the problem. That is what people do.
Expect increase unemployment; an increase in commercial vacancies; significant curtailment of consumer spending; increase in personal taxes at all levels of government; and you will be reading about bailouts for the car makers but also there will be a number of local governments which will be declaring bankruptcy throughout the country.
Vallejo, CA has already declared bankruptcy and it is expected that at least 6 more local governments in the Central Valley and the San Francisco area will declare bankruptcy shortly.
The New Administration will push for an FDR type economy to create jobs in the areas of highway, water, bridges, and other type infra-structure which are in need of repairs.
Ventura County.
Staying put. That is going to be the state of affairs for the next several months. Listings are decreasing; sales however have slowed; and of critical importance is that unemployment in the County is increasing. Jobs are going to be cut across the board and this will have its impact on real estate.
Please forward your comments.
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Title Representation Changes…..
November 5th, 2008 Categories: Real Estate News
Effective January 1, 2009, SB 133 changes the way Title Marketing Representatives and Title Companies can solicit business in Californian.
Activities covered by the legislation are:
- Reps can no longer take a person out for lunch/dinner, drinks or entertain to market title insurance.
- Reps can no longer take people out to sporting events to market title insurance.
- Reps cannot pay for any advertising in newspapers, newsletter, magazines or publications on behalf of Industry participants.
- Reps cannot take photographs on behalf of Industry participants.
- Reps cannot create or provide any marketing materials on behalf of Industry participants.
- Reps cannot provide food or refreshments for any broker caravan, open house or any other function on behalf of an Industry participant.
- Reps cannot quote or charge any title or escrow fees below their company’s filed rate.
- Reps cannot distribute any items that have a specific monetary value, including gift cards, movie tickets, car washes, etc.
- Rep can provide educational classes and material exclusively related to the business of title insurance or escrow. Excluded are food and drinks during the seminar.
- Title Company employees are prohibited from using their own money to entertain customers.
- Reps may not engage in any prohibited activity through a separate entity controlled by the Rep or Rep’s employees.
- Reps will be required to be licensed by the Department of Insurance in California.
- Reps found in violation of the new law can be subject to fines, revoke of license and if license is revoked the Rep cannot apply for reinstatement of license for a period of 5 years.
For additional information on this law visit www.CLTA.org.
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Engineering Fear. Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending Nov 1, 2008
November 2nd, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
From all the talk on the National level there has been little done to help the housing side of the economy. And this should not be a surprise to anyone.
The Federal Reserve has done its thing but the banks have yet to pass rate reductions to the consumers. As stated lots of talk but little to no action.
There is still a disturbing principal that must be dealt with.
There is a significant portion of the population (and politicians) that think that being an American gives them a right to a home (sharing the wealth concept).
Politicians engineered and set in place this thought in the 1990’s (today’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac problem) that every pot should have a home. This is still the thinking in Washington and unless corrected it will have a significant impact on the real estate market.
Do not be surprise that this thinking will not continue with anyone wanting a home, getting one, even if they cannot afford it.
What will occur is that the Government will assist those who cannot afford the monthly payments with monies to bridge the deficiency. Meaning the citizens of the United States will pay the cost of the Governments generosity.
This was further highlighted when listening to the radio a few days ago a number of people in the street were being asked questions. Listed below are the questions asked as I remembered them and at this writing I cannot recall the radio station that was conducting this interview but it was scary.
I thought at first it was a Halloween trick but after listening to a half dozen people responding to the questions it was apparent that the this was the thinking on the street with these people.
The questions and responses were:
Do you have a right to a home even if you cannot afford it? Response: Yes.
Question: Should the Government help or give you a home? Response: Yes.
Question: Do you you think the Government should give you a car to go to work and the like. Response: Yes.
Question: Do you believe that the Government should give you monies for your food, clothing, medical care and entertainment?
Response: Yes.
There were some other questions asked but this is what I remembered. Perhaps someone reading this heard the same program and can shed further light on the topic but it was un-nerving to hear and picture social engineering being addressed.
Ventura County:
The market continues to strengthen with listing decreasing at a faster pace (this I perceive as the “Stay Put” syndrome); days on the market is now decreasing (this I contribute to people wanting to buy quickly before they miss the opportunity. They sense the market has worked itself to a bottom); and the discount between the list price and actual sales price has stabilized to about 4%.
Ventura County inventory can be described as normal (at about 5 months. This still can be described as a neutral market but with listings decreasing as a rapid pace one will start witnessing a turn around to a sellers market very shortly).
Viewing the market on a month to month basis one can see that inventory has dropped dramatically since the beginning of the year. Also the equity (value loss) of homes has dropped significantly in a year to year,month spot comparison. Equity has begun a turn around and as noted on the above chart, Ventura County should experience approximately a 7% annual growth over the next 12 months based on current prices. This growth will continue to approximately 25% over the next three years. Then watch out. Ventura County home prices will sky rocket. Nice to live along the coast.
A preview of what should occur over the next several years is depicted in the following graph. Again it is nice to live near the beach and in Ventura County.
Your comments are welcomed.
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