National and Local Real Estate Mood
August 26th, 2008 Categories: National and Local Real Estate Appreciation Forecast
Trying to view the future is at best an art and attempting to project what real estate will be doing requires an eye for trends and keeping your fingers crossed that it will hold together.
Economic variables such as what the farm belt harvest will be, interest rates and controlling inflation has an impact on any forecast.
Then there is the political arena(it is that time of year) and what other countries economies will do.
Oil appears to be every-one’s favorite commodity and anything that interferes with oil will create a problem for the world.
So attempting to make a projection is like predicting the weather. Many want to make it sound like a science but in fact it is an art. Similar to weather forecasting.
Only after time has passed does one know if his/her “art” was close to the mark.
The reported second quarter, 2008 National real estate map reflects the real estate mood throughout the United States. The overall appreciation rate approximates 5% (greenish-blue area) average throughout the country.
The biggest difference between the 2nd quarter and 1st quarter, 2008 quarters is the decrease in real estate values is the North Central portion of the United States in areas of Ohio, New York, Minnesota, etc.
And yes Arizona has picked up some…..nothing great but it did get out of the red.
Looking at California, the areas with the lowest rate of appreciationfor the 2nd quarter, 2008 continues to be (this is a recording) Merced, Stockton, Modesto, Salinas, Vallejo, Riverside/San Bernardino area, Bakersfield, Fresno and Madera.
Santa Barbara, Goleta and Santa Maria are in the lower quadrant for appreciation but that is going to change rather rapidly.
When one looks at the following National real estate maps there have been a few changes and California, Nevada and Florida continue to show accelerated decreases (greater now than at the beginning of the year).
Areas of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Washington, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, etc., have definitely cooled as reported in the last update.
Oklahoma still appears to be a good place to invest although I am beginning to sense that it too will cool off shortly. Tulsa and Oklahoma City are good areas.
I think that California is starting to come out of its down turn but the numbers have yet to catch up with this judgement. I suspect that we will definitely see a significant change in California by the end of the 3rd quarter, early part of the 4th quarter of 2008.
Closer to home, Ventura County, and other California cities it is going to be UP.
As mentioned it appears that California will be coming out of its downside by the end of this year. This chart reflects some of the area growth over the next year and two subsequent years.
Ventura County will be enjoying a hearty increase surpassed only by San Luis Obispo area.
Los Angeles and San Bernardino will not be participating as other areas but they too will be showing positive growth.
This is the mood of the United States real estate at the end 2nd quarter,
This was the mood of the United States real estate during the 1st quarter, 2008.
This was the real estate mood during the 4th quarter, 2007.
For investors it is go Southeast young man, go Southeast but stay out of Florida.
Your comments are welcomed.
