One Down; Three To Go!
March 1st, 2010 Categories: Real Estate News
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
The Ventura County real estate market (like many parts of the country) will simply go sideways for the next several months until the job market starts upward. No jobs; limited real estate sales. Thank you Barney Frank and Chris Dodd and the rest of good old boy network in Washington that created this housing mess.
The tempo is turning and people and time are unforgiving. One can expect a significant shift in Washington starting now but definitely in November, 2010. The “newbies” being elected will have to start running from the very beginning because people are clamoring for work and a ”keep it the same” Congress will not be tolerated.
There will be a resuffle in the White House, Senate and House. President Obama (unless he does a 180 degree turn) will be a one term president. More importantly there will be big changes in State legislative bodies throughout the United States.
Expect significant layoffs in the public sector (Federal and State). Tarp monies have been spent to keep public sector employees employed but that has run its course and the ax is ready to fall.
Ventura County has shown very limited, if any growth in home prices over the last year. It appears that the bottom of the market was set in March, 2009 and since then appreciation stands at 20.7% from that bottom through February 28, 2010. The month to month appreciation from January to February, 2010 was 1.3%.
Since the March, 2009 bottom the market has been saw-toothing from the low of $ 384,976 (average home sales price) to the recent uptick in February, 2010 of $ 464, 079 average sales price. It is expected that this will continue with a bias to the upside for the next several months (through November, 2010).
Noted in the charts below are the monthly sales with average list/sales prices; a breakdown of sales by area; and lastly sales by price range.
Sales by Month.
Sales by Ventura County area.
Sales by Price Range.
Keep in mind that these are preliminary numbers; it takes about 6 months to have all the numbers settle down to actual figures.
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Get Bank For Your Buck! Sensible Spending Can Reap Big Rewards!
January 8th, 2010 Categories: Remodeling and Home Construction
What room in the home provokes more analysis, expert opinion, design and re-design, lots of thought, hesitation and which people gravitate to as if by instinctive…..the kitchen.
Since its evolutionary linkage to the cooking range and the capability of getting water, the kitchen has had more technical advances than any room in one’s home.
What makes a kitchen? It comes down to taste, style, material preferences and the money one can afford.
There is an array of categories which include Contemporary, Country, Old World, Traditional and Transitional kitchen styles. Many articles have been written about each and many hours spent in trying to explain the differences between each of these types.
- When talking of a Contemporary kitchens generally one is talks of a modern, minimalist geometric type room with horizontal lines with no molding. Materials used are stainless steel, laminate, frosted glass, concrete, linoleum, chrome, and lacquer. The main stylists of these kitchens are Italy, Germany and Scandinavians countries.
- The Country kitchen is one that is very cheery with bright colors and lights; the cabinetry painted and glazed with decorative shelving and the room has quite a bit of molding. The Country most popular styles are French, English, Tuscan, Cottage, Farmhouse, and Garden.
- An Old World kitchen is one of large hearths or cooking grottos and heavily stressed. It has the look of pre-17th century Europe. Themes of this style kitchen include Tuscan, Mediterranean, Medieval, Castle, French Chateau, Italian Villa, Normandy or Cottage. Materials are usually stone floors, mosaic tiles, brick, plaster walls, pewter or copper.
- The Traditional kitchen typically reflects the elegance of the 18th, 19th and 20th century. Design styles include Victorian, Edwardian, Georgian, Federal, Regency, Italianate, Early American and Neoclassical. Generally these type kitchens have more ornate molding, cabinets and materials are often cherry, walnut, mahogany woods consisting of antique fixtures and appliances.
- The Transitional kitchen is mixture of traditional and contemporary. Eclectic in nature there is a mixture of natural and man-made materials, finishes and textures. Bamboo flooring is often the choice for transitional kitchens and appliances are showed cased rather than hidden behind panels.
So for a room equipped with a stove, sink, refrigerator, oven, dishwasher and other appliances it is a place that takes on the taste and shape that meets your needs and monies. Not an absolute but generally monies spent in the kitchen enhance the overall value of the home.
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Out With The Old; In With The New?
January 2nd, 2010 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
If you dislike reading and looking at statistical charts you may want to pass on this article. Charts were used extensively because more information can be presented in a limited space.
The Ventura County real estate market has been choppy over the last year due in large part to foreclosures and the reverse of that…..new buyer credit.
Words however do not tell the story. The chart below is a monthly summary or prices by month for Ventura County. From this chart one can see the ups and downs that has been experienced throughout the year. Despite the ups and downs prices for Ventura County real estate rose approximately 6% from a year ago (December 31, 2008).
| Ventura County | Sales | DOM/ | Ave List $ | Ave Sales $ | Variance |
| Monthly Summaries | CDOM | List to | |||
| (for years 2008 and 2009) | Sales | ||||
| YEAR 2009 | |||||
| Dec 1-Dec 31, 2009 | 631 | 80/98 | $ 461,952 | $ 448,647 | -2.9% |
| Nov 1-Nov 30, 2009 | 603 | 78/91 | $ 451,632 | $ 443,420 | -1.8% |
| Oct 1-Oct 31, 2009 | 764 | 77/95 | $ 468,905 | $ 457,700 | -2.4% |
| Sept 1-Sept 26, 2009 | 669 | 82/102 | $ 472,717 | $ 457,808 | -3.2% |
| Aug 1-Aug 31, 2009 | 678 | 75/93 | $ 481,357 | $ 470,137 | -2.3% |
| July 1-July 31, 2009 | 747 | 85/102 | $ 502,838 | $ 485,284 | -3.5% |
| June 1-June 30, 2009 | 706 | 83/106 | $ 483,511 | $ 469,355 | -2.9% |
| May 1-May 31, 2009 | 730 | 86/111 | $ 445,696 | $ 430,371 | -3.4% |
| April 1-April 30, 2009 | 638 | 77/104 | $ 417,511 | $ 403,444 | -3.4% |
| March 1-March 31, 2009 | 677 | 79/110 | $ 397,917 | $ 384,247 | -3.4% |
| Feb 1-Feb 28, 2009 | 505 | 78/110 | $ 409,229 | $ 394,976 | -3.5% |
| Jan 1-Jan 31, 2009 | 551 | 87/111 | $ 407,705 | $ 392,659 | -3.7% |
| Totals Thru Dec, 2009 | 7899 | ||||
| YEAR 2008 | |||||
| Totals Dec 1-Dec 31, 2008 | 712 | 76 | $ 440,817 | $ 424,941 | -3.6% |
| Totals Nov 1-Nov 30, 2008 | 579 | 77 | $ 443,924 | $ 427,473 | -3.7% |
| Totals Oct 1-Oct 31, 2008 | 753 | 73 | $ 487,015 | $ 469,813 | -3.5% |
| Totals Sept 1 thru Sept 30, 2008 | 692 | 71 | $ 470,261 | $ 454,358 | -3.4% |
| Totals Aug 1-Aug 30, 2008 | 739 | 81 | $ 534,589 | $ 512,974 | -4.0% |
| Totals July 1 thru Jul 31, 2008 | 741 | 75 | $ 553,874 | $ 530,941 | -4.1% |
| Totals June 1 thru 30, 2008 | 646 | 79 | $ 554,940 | $ 531,878 | -4.2% |
| Totals May 1 thru 31, 2008 | 586 | 86 | $ 556,055 | $ 533,384 | -4.1% |
| Totals April 1 thru 30, 2008 | 605 | 86 | $ 563,357 | $ 537,089 | -4.7% |
| Totals March 1 thru 31, 2008 | 413 | 83 | $ 585,540 | $ 555,587 | -5.1% |
| Totals February 1 thru 29, 2008 | 380 | 96 | $ 645,075 | $ 608,224 | -5.7% |
| Totals January 1 thru 31, 2008 | 307 | 94 | $ 665,164 | $ 627,947 | -5.6% |
| Jan-Dec 2008 Totals and Average | 7153 |
When analyzing the price ranges of these sales the next chart reflects that approximately 35% of the sales were for Single Family Homes below $ 300,000. 23% of the sales were for properties in the range of $ 300,000 to $ 400,000; and approximately 15% were sales in the $ 400,000 to $ 500,000 price range. These total 83% in sales for properties below $ 500,000.
| Price Range | Units Sold | % Of | Average | Average | Variance | DOM/ |
| Annual | List Price | Sales Price | List to Sale | CDOM | ||
| Sales | ||||||
| 100,000 or less | 124 | 1.6% | $ 91,102 | $ 87,670 | -3.8% | 59/108 |
| 100,001-200,000 | 927 | 11.7% | $ 162,993 | $ 159,841 | -1.9% | 76/100 |
| 200,001-300,000 | 1699 | 21.5% | $ 254,346 | $ 254,116 | -0.1% | 77/100 |
| 300,001-400,000 | 1841 | 23.3% | $ 353,348 | $ 350,926 | -0.7% | 74/89 |
| 400,0001-500,000 | 1166 | 14.8% | $ 453,707 | $ 445,650 | -1.8% | 73/91 |
| 500,001-600,000 | 703 | 8.9% | $ 566,747 | $ 551,578 | -2.7% | 78/95 |
| 600,001-700,000 | 518 | 6.6% | $ 669,058 | $ 649,153 | -3.0% | 84/101 |
| 700,001-800,000 | 306 | 3.9% | $ 779,261 | $ 749,758 | -3.8% | 103/127 |
| 800,001-900,000 | 171 | 2.2% | $ 884,082 | $ 849,407 | -3.9% | 102/133 |
| 900,001-1,000,000 | 119 | 1.5% | $ 1,005,311 | $ 950,479 | -5.5% | 110/145 |
| 1,000,000-1,500,000 | 218 | 2.8% | $ 1,301,817 | $ 1,212,352 | -6.9% | 124/167 |
| 1,500,001-2,000,000 | 55 | 0.7% | $ 1,894,548 | $ 1,713,409 | -9.6% | 170/236 |
| 2,000,001 and up | 51 | 0.6% | $ 3,086,059 | $ 2,733,461 | -11.4% | 203/342 |
| Totals | 7898 | 100.0% |
A breakdown of 2009 Ventura County real estate Single Family Homes sales is furnished below by area. Ventura and Oxnard beaches saw the largest erosion between list and sales price. However if you look at the next two charts you will see that the prices witnessed in the time frame of 2005-2007, beach properties in 2009 did quite well.
| Area | No. of | Ave. List | Average | Variance | Days On |
| Properties | Price of | Sales Price | List vs. | Market | |
| Sold | Sold Properties | Sold Prop | Sales Price | (DOM/ | |
| 2009 | CDOM) | ||||
| Ventura Beaches | 41 | $ 1,229,371 | $ 1,107,337 | -11.02% | 123/142 |
| Oxnard Beaches | 234 | $ 697,499 | $ 645,307 | -8.09% | 97/125 |
| Santa Rosa Valley | 45 | $ 1,145,782 | $ 1,081,888 | -5.91% | 102/174 |
| Conejo Valley | 1793 | $ 661,914 | $ 633,165 | -4.54% | 94/120 |
| Camarillo | 733 | $ 475,872 | $ 461,203 | -3.18% | 77/101 |
| Simi Valley/Moorpark | 1520 | $ 452,763 | $ 443,286 | -2.14% | 85/98 |
| Ventura | 855 | $ 382,528 | $ 375,345 | -1.91% | 67/81 |
| Ojai/Oak View | 222 | $ 483,204 | $ 459,507 | -5.16% | 105/131 |
| Santa Paula | 225 | $ 273,111 | $ 267,931 | -1.93% | 75/109 |
| Oxnard | 2060 | $ 262,646 | $ 264,268 | 0.61% | 67/92 |
| Fillmore | 170 | $ 281,133 | $ 272,510 | -3.16% | 80/104 |
| Totals | 7898 |
The next chart shows prices for these areas for the period of 2005 through 2009.
| Ave. Sales | Ave. Sales | Ave. Sales | Ave. Sales | Ave Sales | % Variance | Total | Fearless | |
| Ventura County | Price | Price | Price | Price | Price | 2008 vs. | Sales | Forecast |
| Area | Year | Year | Year | Year | Year | 2009 | 2009 | For 2010 |
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Incr/Dec (-) | (SFH) | (Est. 8.3% inc) | |
| Ventura Beaches | $ 1,080,311 | $ 1,070,433 | $ 1,221,775 | $ 1,401,569 | $ 1,107,237 | -21.0% | 41 | $ 1,199,138 |
| Oxnard Beaches | $ 859,770 | $ 1,026,332 | $ 977,787 | $ 867,482 | $ 645,307 | -25.6% | 234 | $ 698,867 |
| Santa Rosa Valley | $ 1,456,401 | $ 1,485,174 | $ 1,452,259 | $ 1,284,433 | $ 1,081,888 | -15.8% | 45 | $ 1,171,685 |
| Conejo Valley | $ 814,430 | $ 855,124 | $ 864,427 | $ 700,032 | $ 633,165 | -9.6% | 1793 | $ 685,718 |
| Camarillo | $ 659,220 | $ 680,519 | $ 627,363 | $ 506,503 | $ 443,330 | -12.5% | 733 | $ 480,126 |
| Simi Valley/Moorpark | $ 601,631 | $ 637,835 | $ 612,482 | $ 481,277 | $ 461,203 | -4.2% | 1520 | $ 499,483 |
| Ventura | $ 577,898 | $ 590,389 | $ 560,724 | $ 420,263 | $ 459,507 | 9.3% | 855 | $ 497,646 |
| Ojai/Oak View | $ 731,112 | $ 914,597 | $ 866,142 | $ 585,891 | $ 375,345 | -35.9% | 222 | $ 406,499 |
| Santa Paula | $ 490,696 | $ 581,396 | $ 533,590 | $ 362,987 | $ 267,931 | -26.2% | 225 | $ 290,169 |
| Oxnard | $ 524,744 | $ 551,300 | $ 481,415 | $ 311,554 | $ 272,510 | -12.5% | 2060 | $ 295,128 |
| Fillmore | $ 544,961 | $ 526,330 | $ 522,058 | $ 330,042 | $ 264,268 | -19.9% | 170 | $ 286,202 |
Cities like Santa Paula, Fillmore showed approximately a 50% decrease in value when one compares prices of 2009 with the year 2007. One can detect other significant changes by comparing both charts.
Based on the numbers, the City of Ventura in the above chart shows that it fared well between 2008 and 2009. This may be true but sometimes the numbers are adjusted later so I would be cautious in what you read into these Ventura figures.
Ventura County real estate since 1994 has been quite good as noted in the table below. Appreciation for the 16 year period (1994 through 2009) shows an appreciation of 132% or an average of 8.2% increase each year since 1994. That is not bad averaging.
| Period | No. of | Ave. List | Average | Variance | Days On | Annual | Appreciation |
| Properties | Price of | Sales Price | List vs. | Market | Appreciation | (since 1995) | |
| Sold | Sold Properties | Sold Prop | Sales Price | (DOM/ | |||
| (Ventura Co.) | CDOM) | ||||||
| Year 2009 | 7,898 | $ 452,482 | $ 438,872 | 3.10% | 81/103 | -13.2% | 131.8% |
| Year 2008 | 7,274 | $ 527,813 | $ 505,577 | 4.40% | 84/122 | -27.7% | 167.0% |
| Year 2007 | 6,175 | $ 725,754 | $ 699,221 | 3.79% | 80/116 | -2.7% | 269.2% |
| Year 2006 | 8,591 | $ 736,610 | $ 718,618 | 2.50% | 63/83 | 9.1% | 279.5% |
| Year 2005 | 12,367 | $ 668,462 | $ 658,864 | 1.46% | 57 | 13.8% | 247.9% |
| Year 2004 | 11,486 | $ 586,093 | $ 578,979 | 1.23% | 32 | 25.7% | 205.7% |
| Year 2003 | 12,504 | $ 468,432 | $ 460,709 | 1.68% | 35 | 24.0% | 143.3% |
| Year 2002 | 6,872 | $ 377,761 | $ 371,466 | 1.69% | 37 | 25.9% | 96.2% |
| Year 2001 | 5,179 | $ 301,689 | $ 295,005 | 2.27% | 47 | 10.8% | 55.8% |
| Year 2000 | 5,092 | $ 272,611 | $ 266,214 | 2.40% | 50 | 10.6% | 40.6% |
| Year 1999 | 4,956 | $ 247,000 | $ 240,658 | 2.64% | 64 | 9.8% | 27.1% |
| Year 1998 | 4,655 | $ 226,338 | $ 219,229 | 3.24% | 78 | 7.2% | 15.8% |
| Year 1997 | 3,795 | $ 213,153 | $ 204,447 | 4.26% | 92 | 7.3% | 8.0% |
| Year 1996 | 3,671 | $ 199,586 | $ 190,474 | 4.78% | 95 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Year 1995 | 3,422 | $ 198,022 | $ 189,364 | 4.57% | 96 | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| Year 1994 | 3,352 | $ 200,932 | $ 191,773 | 4.78% | 93 | base year | base year |
| 16 Year Average | 5,757 | $ 338,903 | $ 330,314 | 2.60% | 49 | ||
| (1997-2009) |
Based on my studies it is expected that the Ventura County market will continue to solidify it is expected that growth in 2010 will approximate 8.3% (the same average that has been experienced since 1994). This will continue into 2011 after which the market will accelerate quite rapidly as illustrated in the following chart.
Factors impacting the market will be continued high unemployment; the lack of new job creation; pending higher taxes (both Federal and State); higher gasoline prices (there is every indication that oil will go back up to $ 100 or more per barrel); and businesses face additional higher employee cost with the National Health Plan being discussed in Congress.
Unemployment will tend to stay high until mid-year and there should be a noticeable decrease at that time. But the jobs will be minimum wage jobs which will not help real estate.
Despite all of this Ventura County real estate will still move ahead at about 8% in 2010. So “Out With The Old; In With The New?” will be a picture of 2009 in 2010 with a bias to the upside.
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Getting LEGS????? Maybe!
November 4th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
The Ventura County real estate market once again reversed course to the upside in October,2009.
It appears that the real estate market wants to get legs BUT other economic issues stand in the way.
The table below shows that approximately 75% of Ventura County home sales have occurred in the price range below $ 500,000, with 2955 single family homes selling between $ 200,000 to $ 400,000.
Investors and 1st time home-buyers took advantage of prices and tax credits.
There was a niche market of properties selling between $ 1,000,000 to $ 1,500,000. This represented approximately 4% of the sales in Ventura County.
The following table shows price trends in the County. Of significance is apprciation in Ventura County approximated 16% for the 1st 10 months of 2009. The monthly price increase between September and October, 2009 approximated 7%. Not bad for a one month period.
It is too early to say that the trend in real estate is up. Since March, 2009 it has been basically sideways. The October uptick may suggest that despite the local and national economic woes real estate may do its own thing.
The September, 2009 down tick may have been a hic-cup in the overall trend but it does suggest that one be cautious before reading anything into the market. It may have been a warning.
Even with the warning one would expect that with high unemployment; lack of new job creation; new taxes on the horizon both Federal and State; the increase in State tax as a loan for the next several months; lack of consumer confidence…all of these singularly and collectively will temper the real estate uptrend.
BUT as of now it looks like the market wants to get LEGS!
Your comments are welcomed.
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Abracadabra!
October 4th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Today when this term is used it is hoped that something will be created out of nothing. This ancient Aramaic roots (Avrah KaDabra) means “I create as I speak”.
Well over the last week the real estate market in Ventura County did an “Abracadabra” and the down trend that had been in place for two months reversed itself and start upward with some conviction I might add.
As can be noted in the table below the market had been laboring over the last two months showing significant downside build up.
However over the last week this appears to have turned. True it is only a week but by saying the magic words “abracadabra” things changed and hopefully what is being created is a sustainable upward trend in the real estate market (at least that is what happens in magic shows).
The following weekly table shows the continuation of lower listings, but sales jumped higher as did prices. The variance between list price and average sales price increased significantly as well. The County overall is showing itself to be a seller’s market but there are spots (Santa Rosa Valley; Ventura and Oxnard beaches; and Ojai/Oak View) are buyer markets.
Overall sales comparison to 2008 continue to slide with the area showing a 12% sales growth year to year for the period ending October 3, 2009.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the hic-cup experienced in August and September, 2009 was just that and from here on out the market is upward.
The numbers will tell us in the coming weeks. Stay tune.
The government in its recent reports suggest that there are a great number of people now being assisted in the mortgage area. In my travels I haven’t yet come across a person that has been assisted by the government in the varies programs that they presented since March, 2009.
That being said mortgages are still difficult to get and most of the larger banks are no friend to those seeking mortgage loans. This will eventually change once the write-offs have been taken and the foreclosures have run their course. This should take about another 6 months and then maybe sanity will appear in the mortgage world.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Real Estate Contraction…..Ventura County.
September 20th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
Mentioned previously was the anticipated real estate contraction that is now occurring in Ventura County. It’s the clown in the box scenario that is taking place.
Listings continue to decrease (1932 last week; 1859 this week); sales however climbed and it is probably due to the paper work being delayed in recording sales therefore the prices which had been going down now appears to have stabilized over the last week.
The chart below summarizes the last weeks statistical numbers. However events that truly move the market are headed in the opposite direction.
The County’s high unemployment of 11+% certainly is a driving force impacting the real estate market. Lack of new jobs creation is another impact source. Consumer confidence is at a low point.
The media is attempting to make things look good but individual common sense tells the general population something else.
Attempts to detract from the economy are going full bore but when push comes to shove it’s the economy that most people dwell on. It’s their personal economy that takes priority.
Expected is the hammer to fall…..tax increases. This has to come about and most are dreading the outcome. To be sure most middle and upper level pay scales are going to be hit hard. This in and of itself will not impact the real estate market but it most certainly will take longer for the market to start its upward acceleration.
When the acceleration takes hold watch out. Prices will sky rocket. Then one will see that there will be a division in the population….those that own property and those that do not. The division will cause endless discussions and consternation.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Impact is Starting To Take Hold…..Or Is It?
September 7th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Much is being written about real estate turning the corner. Nationally this is true but locally (Ventura County) there are signs that perhaps the up-tick that was experienced over the last three months may have played itself out.
Through August, 2009 there has been a significant decrease in home sold that were in the $ 500,000 or less category. As illustrated in the chart below properties in the $ 200,000 or less sales bracket declined from 309 homes sold in the 2nd quarter, 2009 to 117 homes sold in the third quarter of 2009.
One can see the same for other categories up to around $ 600,000.
Home selling above $ 900,000 or more appear to be hold their own.
What is causing this? Unemployment and the lack of job creation. It has been reported that 57% of employable people are out of work. Now it appears that the public sector (local, regional and overall State) will also be cutting their work forces drastically over the next several months.
The mortgage market is of limited help as stringent conditions are being applied which eliminates many “wanna be” home owners.
Buyers are asking for the moon; sellers are holding fast.
So expect a stalling of home prices, sales and listing for the next few several weeks maybe upward of two to three months.
Evidence of this happening is noted in the chart below.
Ventura County had been experiencing price increases since February/March, 2009 time frame. But as illustrated in the chart August noted a significant drop in home prices on a month to month basis. It is hoped that this is a hiccup for the month only because of unemployment and perhaps the summer doldrums is playing a part in the scenario.
The weekly chart continues to show decreases in listings; a sideways action in the number of sales with a bias to the downside. But overall the County is still showing itself to be a seller’s market.
Again job creation (high paying), a decrease in unemployment are the necessary ingredients to propel the market upward.
Political double talk aside job creation and reduction of unemployment in California is taking on a monster stance. Historically tax decreases helped to right the ship faster. Today that does not appear to be tack being undertaken ….. all one hears or sees is that taxes have to increase across the board. This option simply reduces the odds of getting the economy headed upward.
As Donald Trump has stated on a number of occasions, we have to hand out pink slips to the politicians now in office. “YOUR FIRED” will set the tone and change the mindset of the people in Sacramento.
Your comments are appreciated.
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Continuing Summer Doldrums In Ventura County.
August 9th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
The real estate market Nationally appears to be getting better. Likewise the market in Ventura appears to be continuing its upward swing but it appears to be labored.
As shown in the table below there has been a significant drop in recorded sales over the last week, offset with a gain in listings. The overall Ventura County market still shows as a sellers market but two areas flipped to buyers markets over the last week. These area are: Santa Rosa Valley and Ojai/Oak View.
Recorded average sales and listing prices declined accordingly.
The second chart shows a revealing trend. Over the last two months (June and July, 2009) greater sales were made in homes valued above $ 400,000 or more.
Properties that were listed above $ 1 Million dollars had the greatest sales increase for the 2 month period.
This was interesting because many news outlets have been reporting that homes above $ 1 Million dollars were not selling. In Ventura County this does not appear to be the case.
The same chart shows that homes in the price range of $ 900,000 up to $ 1,000,000 showed a decrease in sales. But overall the market for homes above $ 500,000 appeared healthy during June and July, 2009. It will be interesting to see if this continues for any length of time.
Your comments are welcomed.
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Something Doesn’t Feel Right……
August 2nd, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
After awhile statistical information being just numbers becomes mesmerizing and some common sense has to come into play.
The numbers do what numbers are supposed to do….lay out what is happening and it is up to the individual to wade through and make sense of what that happening is.
This week for some reason the numbers are saying one thing but my gut instincts are telling me something else.
The real estate market has been going up and that is GOOD news. And as expected it is going up in a saw tooth configuration. BUT it appears that we may be looking at (what the stock market would call) a bears trap. Prices have been going up but over the last several months, especially the month of July, the price increases witnessed since the beginning of the year appear to be labored.
It may well be a great to do about nothing but one should be on guard for further decreases in real estate prices. I cannot believe I said that…..after all since November, 2008 I have been stating that the market is going up. But some doubt is setting in…….again just a feeling.
Contributors to this feeling is the unemployment rate; the lack of new job development; consumer confidence is waning; federal/state/locat taxes and fees have to go up.
- Yes the beige report has come out stating that the market and the economy has hit bottom.
- Yes there have been reports of new building going on throughout the United States.
- Yes it has been reported that home prices are going up (and they are).
BUT something doe not feel right so investors watch what you buy and where you buy. Home buyers watch what you buy and where you buy. Sellers hold fast and if you have to sell, sell because the price you get may be the best for several months. Sellers if you do not have to sell now, wait. The market will come to you.
For Ventura County:
Listings are down; sales are flat; year to year sales are up 20% and the County as a whole is a sellers market.
The beaches are the only place that continue as a buyers market and the inventory for Ventura and Oxnard beach areas is about a 10 month supply. As reflected in the table below all other areas are either neutral or seller markets.
Summer pattern is in play but come September we shall see if the market does a down turn. I certainly hope that this is not the case.
The following table has led me to my concerns. Things look rosy but if one plays with the numbers the rose losses some of its luster. But it may be a little early to cry wolf. We shall see.
I had expected the an upside month to month price increase continuation into the month of July, 2009 but as can be seen it was 50% less than June which raise the hairs on the back of my neck. It may be just an aberration but if this continues into August totals than something is afoot.
Price increases since November, 2008 continue to show a three month positive acceleration of 15%, so this tempers my concern but not entirely. Another factor which tempers my concern is the monthly % value increase/decrease since January 2008 has turn positive (+7.76%) after being in negative territory for about 18 months.
But look prices have been increasing steadily for the last 5-6 months so it just might be my instincts are out of whack. Let’s hope so.
Your comments are welcomed
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More Of The Same…..
July 26th, 2009 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
The residential real estate market in Ventura County has exhibited more of the same……QUIET!
As can be noted in the table below listings have now shown signs of life (more people want to sell); sales continue upward and they are doing so at higher prices (which is GOOD). With the exception of Santa Rosa Valley all communites are showing higher sales as compared to one year ago. The beach areas are the only segment now showing up as a “buyer’s” market. The rest of Ventura County is either a seller or neutral market.
Land and commercial are now in a decline. Many land owners have elected (in many cases) to simply withdraw their property from the market if they do not get their price.
Commercial properties are now experiencing what the residential market went through a few months ago. This should not be surprising since land and commercial historically lag residential by a few months.
The loan industry is still trying to get their act together and while it is painful for many borrowers their is some concrete evidence that the industry wants to get things righted.
Unemployment and the lack of new job creation will hinder any quick price advances in homes. But despite this problem real estate prices are going up.
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New taxes (both federal, state and local) are on the horizon. I suspect that these new taxes will bein the form of “take away”. Exemptions will be eliminated; possibly contributions will go by the way side; mortgage interest and real estate taxes will be reduced initially then eliminated completely; motor vehicle registration will be eliminated; and possibly the sales tax.
What are you left with. Yep……a flat tax. Slowly but surely most will be taxed on adusted gross earnings at maybe a slightly higher rate.
Child tax credits will remain as will low income tax credits but for sure most everything else will go by the way side.
The impact to real estate! Minimal. But it is exacting a toll on many people. It appears that we are at a tipping point and many people are now planning for additional changes. They sense that the direction we are going is not the right direction. People will adjust and take vengeance at election time. Politicians will not adjust. They will be out of office and the cycle starts over again with a new face.
Lobbyist have to be controlled. They are the one’s now setting the agenda. Politicians just follow. Main street voters are out of the loop. That has to change.
National health care will have a significant impact on real estate. It is strange that the European countries are getting out of national health care programs and in the United States we want in. If Europe says yes we say no; if they so no we say yes. Interesting to say the least.
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