Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending July 19, 2008

July 20th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County

What a difference a week makes.

The County experienced a further decline in listings (see chart below); home sales as expected decreased (it is summer); days on the market for sold homes increased; and properties selling for $ 500,000 or less are moving the fastest.

Quite unsettling are the guru’s who tell us how to handle money. They are finding themselves knee deep in alligators.

Zero down, 110% financing and all the other exotic finance packages that the banks and lenders pushed for the last several years are now coming to haunt them.

Excuse me….it is not them, it is us.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are going to be helped through their crisis with money from Uncle Sam. Nope! Got that wrong again. We are giving them the money (good old taxes) from us.

Side Bar. Have you noticed which banks are in trouble. The large institutions. Smaller banks and mortgage companies are doing well for the most part. So if given a choice look at your smaller bank and credit unions. Their management appear to have their acts together.

Back to real estate.

Talk about the fox protecting the chickens.

The Senators that pushed for the creation of these quasi-government companies (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) some years ago, today head the committees that will write the legislation to help bail out these quasi-entities from their crisis.

You know something is wrong when federal or state government officials go on televison Sunday morning telling us all is well. Come Monday (or Tuesday) we find out what the problem is…..strange how that works out.

When government bails out anything, inflation is right around the corner. The Federal Reserve in at a cross roads. They do not want to raise interest rates but if inflation starts flexing its’ muscles, then rates will increase.

The impact to overall real estate market. Minimal if any.

Real estate in California is going to be great. Ventura, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara counties will be excellent.

There are two articles that should be read to realize the strength of the Ventura County maret. Both articles give a better picture of the what is going to occur and the strenth of the Ventura market.

These articles are

Within the next several months (maybe weeks) most if not all of the negative talk regarding mortgages, lenders, banks, real estate in general will disappear. The market has turned and things will be “happy” again.

What we will then hear and read is the chorus of properties becoming unaffordable. Then that cycle will begin over again. Good market or bad market, the media will dwell on the negative. Negativism sells.

One other note regarding Ventura County. As noted in the chart below, appreciation projection for the County will approximate 7.6% over the next 12 months; 17% over 24 months and 26.6% over a 36 month span. These are good numbers.

There should be no doubt but Ventura County real estate is UP. Should National economic scene goes south on us then the County will experience something less than what is being projected. Based on current economic, employment and other Federal data the above rates of appreciation should be realize.