Monday Morning Coffee Break: Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s for Week Ending July 5, 2008
July 6th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
Watching grass grow is much more exciting than the real estate market.
However there are signs that the bottom has been set.
The past week showed listing decreasing, sales increasing, the days on the market for sold homes decreased but the variance between list price of sold homes and the sales price showed an increase.
Inventory appears to be approximately a 7 month supply which is significantly down from the 15 month supply of January, 2008.
Where are we going from here?
First there will be a continuation as we have had over the last several months. Shortly we will start seeing home prices edging upward. Over the next 12 months Ventura County will witness a 5.5% growth. Over a span of 36 months the appreciation of property in Ventura County will approximate 24.4% or more.
Meaning? If a property has a value of $ 500,000 today, in 36 months that same property will be worth $ 622,000 or more.
Ventura County should continue this upward move unless the overall economics of the area deteriorates significantly. Base on financial data available such deterioration probably will not occur.
There are simmering problems that are mentioned below but these should not impact the overall growth of the County. So for the County at this time all is well and good.
As previously mentioned Fillmore (Santa Paula and Oxnard) have to address the flood plain issue and there are community questions that have been simmering in regard to low price housing.
The flood plain discussion centers around a review of build-able areas in all of the Ventura County communities.
The question of low cost housing has been simmering for at least 7 to 10 years and will continue until it is decided by the citizens as to what type of community they want to see in the future.
Today agriculture is still strong in Ventura County but it is dwindling and attempting to project what the communities will look like in 15 to 25 years from now is not an easy task. Agriculture and the jobs it supplies will not be with us for much longer.
Foreign competition will become more aggressive and prices for food items and other essentials will become more readily available and cheaper. Wal-Mart has the blue print which others are or will soon follow.
Neither of the above mentioned problems will impact Ventura County as a whole. It will have an impact on the individual communities standard of living, life styles, tax dollars and a variety of people “wants” and needs and the type of jobs created in the County.
The advocates for less low cost housing consider these homes as not necessarily contributing significantly to the funds needed to operate the community essential items. They probably feel that such housing lessens the value of current homes in the respective communities.
Money is the base line of discussions but it also has to do with community values and life styles. What type of community do we want to live in?
Add to the equation that there are those who feel that various State and Local agencies are dictating what the values and life style should be and they are beginning to object. So politics is at play but this can be corrected by voting in different people.
The bottom line again is money. It is believed that construction of higher price homes not only attract the well to do but these people will be inclined to spend money within the community in lieu of going elsewhere to make food, clothing and entertainment purchases.
A number of areas have focused on low cost housing only to find that the residents do go elsewhere to buy not only food but other essential living items.
Poor and rich…..everyone wants the good life and a better life for themselves and children. Decisions must be made to make it feasible for both. Not an easy task and one that will not please all.
Your comments are welcomed.
