Monday Morning Coffee Break: Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s For Week Ending May 17, 2008

May 18th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County

Basing continues. The next few weeks and months will be frothy with expectations one day and doldrums the next.

National economics will be more visible at the local level. Much has been written of the high food and gas prices and the increase in these areas will have an impact on real estate. Diesel is near $ 5.00 per gallon and that is having a toll on truckers. Is $ 5.00 gasoline just around the corner? What will people do when and if gasoline should get upward to $ 6.50 per gallon.

One could expect some serious mind changes both political and environmental if this occurs. But whatever changes occur will not alleviate the short term hurt.

Locally the coming of early summer will take a small toll on real estate. People will be re-directing their attention to vacation spots, which I suspect will be minutes from home rather than days or weeks. The Ventura County beach area will be crowded this year.

We are lucky in Ventura County because many people are within 15 minutes to 25 minutes (or less) from the ocean. Many Ventura County families will opt for the local beaches more this year than last.

From this weeks chart it is evident that home listings have been decreasing which is both good and bad.

Good because inventory is going down (still has to go down further but the direction is right). Bad because homes that had not sold (expired listings) have been taken off the market. These sellers have decided to wait out the real estate downturn and wait for their price.

The actual sales for the period of April 17 through May 17, 2008 has also shown a decrease. This is the first tangible indicator that food and fuel prices are now starting to impact real estate locally. First time home buyers will become non-existent until the market normalizes.

People who want to buy have elected to wait. “Good” deal or no-good deal, most buyers are willing to pass until they feel good about the economy.

Today we are at cross currents. The economy in most peoples minds is going to get worse. This is wrong because the economy is now starting to show positive upward growth. Be prepare to see significant upward pressure on wages at all levels and all occupations.

National news agencies have been reporting a 4% increase in new “start up” building and building permits. A further review of this data however suggests that these permits are for apartment and condos, not single family homes. But the news is good for real estate.

Real estate people that I have talked to in Las Vegas over the week are starting to get a smile in their voice so it appears that area is starting to come out of its down cycle.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have rescinded some of the guidelines imposed a few weeks ago about loans via zip code. Upward of 65% of banks had been opting out of real estate mortgage lending but it appears that this is starting to unwind.

Loan standards are going to be exacting but banks and lending institutions are becoming more favorable to individual new home or refinancing requirements.

Welcome to the lazy days of summer.