Monday Morning Coffee Break: Ventura County Real Estate Doing’s For Week Ending May 10, 2008
May 11th, 2008 Categories: Weekly Real Estate Activity In Ventura County
It is continuing. Ventura County is getting closer to a normal market.
The Ventura County real estate market continues to build a base. This will be an on-going activity for the next 2-3 months before signs of an up swing become evident.
One can expect some hiccups before this occurs but the overall market strength is upward.
As shown in the chart the number of listed properties on the market has stabilized and in coming months this will start to decline; sales continue to increase and will accelerate; average number of days on the market for sold homes hovers around 3 months (this should reduce to approximately 60-75 days within 6-8 weeks); and the price variance between sold homes list price and sales price still approximates 4.5% (and this will come closer to about 3.5%).
The inventory (or back log) approximates 7 months (# of properties listed divided by actual # of homes sold). In January, 2008 the inventory approximated 15 months. A normal market is defined as having an inventory of 4 to 6 months. Below 4 months is defined as a sellers market; above 6 months is a buyers market.
The area that still remains the weakest is Fillmore.
The appreciation rate for Ventura County over the next 36 months will approximate 24.4%. This will probably change after the release of the next government housing report due with the next week or two.
For additional information regarding the upside of real estate in Ventura County see article entitled: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/05/05/it-only-gets-better-we-are-on-the-upsidea-historical-perspective-of-home-prices-in-ventura-county-and-what-can-be-expected-in-the-next-10-years/
Despite the overall national economic doldrums I think the appreciation rate for Ventura County will remain the same or show a slight increase. We will see in a few weeks.
Food and fuel prices continue to rise and it appears this will be on-going for several months (upward to a year).
Genie or Devil in The Lamp?
The recent agriculture report noted that there will be a decrease in corn planting of about 7% which will not bode well for food prices. Since corn is being used for both food and fuel one can expect all food products to continue to rise.
Oil is ready for a correction and OPEC appears to have some internal disagreements as to production. There can be some limited grace given whereby production will increase and fuel prices will decrease ever so slightly.
Many governments are now getting antsy over high food prices for fear of riots.
Our own Washington politicians are now having second thoughts regarding ethanol. Usually we are better off if the politicians stay out of things but one can expect that something will be done to right the ship. So we better watch out for what we ask for. Hopefully it is something that the market does for itself.
Won’t Help Real Estate
Real estate will take on a secondary role. None of current on-goings will help real estate in the near future, especially for 1st time home buyers. Money is being directed towards personal and family essentials.
Despite this Ventura County real estate will continue to strengthen with buyers purchasing upward and seller’s down sizing for the most part. Beach properties will be better than gold. Anything within 20-25 miles of the ocean will do very well.
Add to the general economy malaise, banks (as being extensively reported) have decided to become very aggressive in loan requirements. There are many buyers but stringent rules have kept these buyers from purchasing homes. For additional insight refer to: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/05/05/the-squeeze/
Banks and the Federal Reserve are now facing off on credit cards. There will be some changes that favor the consumer.
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