It Only Gets Better! We Are On The Upside…….A Historical Perspective of Home Prices in Ventura County and What Can Be Expected In The Next 10 Years.
May 5th, 2008 Categories: National and Local Real Estate Appreciation Forecast
Noted below is a chart that should give a perspective of real estate sales in Ventura County from 1999 through April, 2008.
From the data it appears that average sales prices when compared to what has occurred during the first 1/3 of 2008 are approaching real estate prices of the year 2004.
That would represent a 25% decrease in home average sales values using January-June, 2004 as a base for analysis. This averages to be about an annual 10% decrease in sales values for each year since January-June, 2004.
However it does appears that $ 550,000 is the baseline. In other words the lows of the market have been set, basing is now occurring and within the next 4-6 months prices should be on the upside.
Why do I think the base has been set? Simply because the list to actual sales price variance in 1999, the days on the market and actual average sales prices are similar to the price variances, days on the market and actual average sales prices that we are experiencing today.
Yes, if I expanded this study and added more years something else may turn this logic around but that is what I see based on the data presented.
Other studies that I have taken show that Ventura County average home sales will appreciate approximately 24% over the next 36 months. Therefore homes valued today in Ventura County at $ 550,000 will increase in value to approximately $ 682,000 by the end of 2010 or the first quarter of the year 2011.
Keep your hats on. That same home valued at $ 682,000 in 2010 will be worth approximately $ 1,100,000 (give or take a little) by the year 2016-2017. So the picture does get a lot better.
The current market (described as a Phase 1 of a 3 phase cycle which lasts about 10-11 years) that we are in should be completed in about 6 months. Smart buyers should be very active today because they will have missed the bottom shortly.
Phase 2 will show some growth (reference the above chart for the period 1998 through 2002) but phase 3 will show the greatest appreciation and this is the time that home owners wanting to sell should sell. As the variance of list to actual sales price approaches 3.5% one can expect that the market is topping and will turn around to the downside within one year.
If you view the above chart one could state that the greatest growth in the County occurred between January 2003 through 2006. This was the phase three of the previous market.
That’s it! I thought a perspective was needed for us to look at. Ventura County real estate has been very good in the past and will be very good in the future. Patience is required.
Your comments are welcomed.
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