Feb. 2008 Major Cities Real Estate % Appreciation Trends Report

February 26th, 2008 Categories: National and Local Real Estate Appreciation Forecast

Yikes……Now I know what it feels like swimming upstream in murky waters and everything is flowing against you.

But the numbers are what they are and despite all the doom and gloom one hears or reads the real estate market is going to be fine over the next 36 months.

All the places that have had bad press over the last several years appear to be on the upswing and in some cases with a vengeance. Even poor Phoenix, AZ appears now to be on the upswing.

The table below notes some major cities in various parts of the United States and the expected % appreciation of these areas over the next 36 months.

As mentioned in the December, 2007 remarks, it still appears that dollar for dollar the best investment areas continue to be the in the South (Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana to name a few).

California appears to have reached the bottom of the real estate cycle with areas such as Bakersfield, Fresno, San Bernardino now showing that they have seen the worse and will be on the upswing.

Still it will be a task to achieve a positive cash flow from investment properties in California. Accepting this one has the task to be alert as to location, employment, job growth, future job growth and other variables before investing. This is not only true for California but other areas as well.

But the trend is in place and California has an UP forecast for the next 36 months as well as many other areas in the United States.

Trend information was developed from edsforecast real estate model. This table has been update a month earlier than expected because of the Federal government early release of the real estate data.

Area	Oct. 2007	Dec. 2007	Feb. 2008	Trend

Outside California

Seattle, WA	16.5%	16.5%	16.7%	Flat
Salt Lake City, UT	7.8%	7.8%	11.9%	Up
Reno, NV	-6.0%	-4.5%	5.8%	Up
Phoenix, AZ	-6.0%	-4.5%	15.6%	Up
Portland, OR	2.0%	1.0%	8.4%	Up
Boise, ID	2.0%	1.0%	9.9%	Up
Cheyenne, WY	8.5%	8.5%	13.3%	Up
Edinburg, TX	36.5%	36.5%	30.6%	Down
New Orleans, LA	16.5%	16.5%	11.1%	Down
Tulsa, OK	13.5%	13.5%	13.4%	Flat
Branson, MO	11.0%	11.0%	10.8%	Flat
Dallas, TX	13.5%	13.5%	13.4%	Flat
Gulfport, MS	12.5%	12.5%	14.3%	Flat
Detroit, MI	8.0%	9.7%	8.7%	Flat
Honolulu, HA	4.0%	4.0%	2.0%	Down
Chicago, IL	6.0%	5.8%	4.8%	Down
Boston, MA	1.0%	1.0%	18.4%	Up
New York, NY	2.0%	-2.0%	7.6%	Up
Newark, NJ	2.0%	-2.0%	7.6%	Up

California

Los Angeles	-1.5%	-1.5%	3.7%	Up
San Francisco	4.5%	4.5%	12.4%	Up
San Bernardino	-5.5%	-4.3%	4.9%	Up
Fresno	-1.0%	-1.0%	7.5%	Up
Bakersfield	-3.0%	-2.1%	7.5%	Up
San Diego	-4.0%	3.7%	6.8%	Up
Redding	3.5%	3.9%	12.8%	Up
Ventura	1.0%	1.0%	24.4%	Up
Santa Barbara	-3.0%	-1.7%	21.4%	Up
Santa Maria	-2.0%	-1.7%	21.4%	Up
San Luis Obispo	4.5%	4.5%	36.9%	Up
Santa Paula	1.0%	1.0%	24.4%	Up

Areas with the highest rate of house price apprciation are: Wenatchee, WA; Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA; Grand Junction, CO; Odgen-Clearfield, UT and Bismark, ND.

The five lowest rates of house price appreciation are: Merced,CA; Modesto, CA; Stockton, CA; Port St. Lucie, FL; and Punta Groda, FL.

The report also shows that Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA being a part of the lower 1/3 of areas listed with the lowest rate of house price appreciation.

This appears to be at odds with the table showing Ventura County projecting a 24+% growth over the next 36 months. My reading of these numbers is simply that the bottom is in place, there will be some up’s and down’s over the next several months but it appears that the worse has been put behind us.

IF (there always has to be an IF) the overall economy goes beserck than the formula changes. But it appears that the economy for Ventura County will on the upside.

California, Nevada and Florida continue to be the areas with the lowest % of house appreciation. The highest % house appreciation are in the States of Utah, Wyoming and North Dakota.

Send me your comments.