Archive for February, 2008
Keeping A Perspective: The United States Real Estate Landscape
February 26th, 2008 Categories: National and Local Real Estate Appreciation Forecast
The recent Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight recent report shows that the red area (California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota and Rhode Island) experience a home price range valuation decline of -1.0% to -6.6% during the 4th quarter, 2007.
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina (all areas within the blue-green areas) show a positive home valuation between 2.0% to 5.0%.
The dark blue areas have home valuation growth rates range of 5.0% up to 9.3%. The States within this valuation range include New Mexico, Alaska, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Washington and North Dakota.
Overall approximately 3/4 of the United States real estate is showing positive growth.
Many of the places showing a decline will experience good appreciation growth over the next 36 months. Refer to the blog article “Feb 2008 major Cities Real Estate % Appreciation Trends Report”. Real estate is going to be good overall over the next 36 months. Just keep a perspective.
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Feb. 2008 Major Cities Real Estate % Appreciation Trends Report
February 26th, 2008 Categories: National and Local Real Estate Appreciation Forecast
Yikes……Now I know what it feels like swimming upstream in murky waters and everything is flowing against you.
But the numbers are what they are and despite all the doom and gloom one hears or reads the real estate market is going to be fine over the next 36 months.
All the places that have had bad press over the last several years appear to be on the upswing and in some cases with a vengeance. Even poor Phoenix, AZ appears now to be on the upswing.
The table below notes some major cities in various parts of the United States and the expected % appreciation of these areas over the next 36 months.
As mentioned in the December, 2007 remarks, it still appears that dollar for dollar the best investment areas continue to be the in the South (Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana to name a few).
California appears to have reached the bottom of the real estate cycle with areas such as Bakersfield, Fresno, San Bernardino now showing that they have seen the worse and will be on the upswing.
Still it will be a task to achieve a positive cash flow from investment properties in California. Accepting this one has the task to be alert as to location, employment, job growth, future job growth and other variables before investing. This is not only true for California but other areas as well.
But the trend is in place and California has an UP forecast for the next 36 months as well as many other areas in the United States.
Trend information was developed from edsforecast real estate model. This table has been update a month earlier than expected because of the Federal government early release of the real estate data.
|
Area |
Oct. 2007 |
Dec. 2007 |
Feb. 2008 |
Trend |
|
Outside California |
||||
|
Seattle, WA |
16.5% |
16.5% |
16.7% |
Flat |
|
Salt Lake City, UT |
7.8% |
7.8% |
11.9% |
Up |
|
Reno, NV |
-6.0% |
-4.5% |
5.8% |
Up |
|
Phoenix, AZ |
-6.0% |
-4.5% |
15.6% |
Up |
|
Portland, OR |
2.0% |
1.0% |
8.4% |
Up |
|
Boise, ID |
2.0% |
1.0% |
9.9% |
Up |
|
Cheyenne, WY |
8.5% |
8.5% |
13.3% |
Up |
|
Edinburg, TX |
36.5% |
36.5% |
30.6% |
Down |
|
New Orleans, LA |
16.5% |
16.5% |
11.1% |
Down |
|
Tulsa, OK |
13.5% |
13.5% |
13.4% |
Flat |
|
Branson, MO |
11.0% |
11.0% |
10.8% |
Flat |
|
Dallas, TX |
13.5% |
13.5% |
13.4% |
Flat |
|
Gulfport, MS |
12.5% |
12.5% |
14.3% |
Flat |
|
Detroit, MI |
8.0% |
9.7% |
8.7% |
Flat |
|
Honolulu, HA |
4.0% |
4.0% |
2.0% |
Down |
|
Chicago, IL |
6.0% |
5.8% |
4.8% |
Down |
|
Boston, MA |
1.0% |
1.0% |
18.4% |
Up |
|
New York, NY |
2.0% |
-2.0% |
7.6% |
Up |
|
Newark, NJ |
2.0% |
-2.0% |
7.6% |
Up |
|
California |
||||
|
Los Angeles |
-1.5% |
-1.5% |
3.7% |
Up |
|
San Francisco |
4.5% |
4.5% |
12.4% |
Up |
|
San Bernardino |
-5.5% |
-4.3% |
4.9% |
Up |
|
Fresno |
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
7.5% |
Up |
|
Bakersfield |
-3.0% |
-2.1% |
7.5% |
Up |
|
San Diego |
-4.0% |
3.7% |
6.8% |
Up |
|
Redding |
3.5% |
3.9% |
12.8% |
Up |
|
Ventura |
1.0% |
1.0% |
24.4% |
Up |
|
Santa Barbara |
-3.0% |
-1.7% |
21.4% |
Up |
|
Santa Maria |
-2.0% |
-1.7% |
21.4% |
Up |
|
San Luis Obispo |
4.5% |
4.5% |
36.9% |
Up |
|
Santa Paula |
1.0% |
1.0% |
24.4% |
Up |
Areas with the highest rate of house price apprciation are: Wenatchee, WA; Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA; Grand Junction, CO; Odgen-Clearfield, UT and Bismark, ND.
The five lowest rates of house price appreciation are: Merced,CA; Modesto, CA; Stockton, CA; Port St. Lucie, FL; and Punta Groda, FL.
The report also shows that Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA being a part of the lower 1/3 of areas listed with the lowest rate of house price appreciation.
This appears to be at odds with the table showing Ventura County projecting a 24+% growth over the next 36 months. My reading of these numbers is simply that the bottom is in place, there will be some up’s and down’s over the next several months but it appears that the worse has been put behind us.
IF (there always has to be an IF) the overall economy goes beserck than the formula changes. But it appears that the economy for Ventura County will on the upside.
California, Nevada and Florida continue to be the areas with the lowest % of house appreciation. The highest % house appreciation are in the States of Utah, Wyoming and North Dakota.
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3/4 Acre Home Site…..Skyline Drive, Thousand Oaks.
February 23rd, 2008 Categories: Land, Lots, Ranches
Call John Duffner at 805-933-1385 for additional information.
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Hot Tin Roof…..
February 22nd, 2008 Categories: Remodeling and Home Construction
It appears that we are reaching back to the early 1700’s with the resurrection of metal roofs for homes.
Metal roofs most certainly will outlast composite, cedar, slate or clay tile roofs. And it appears that home builders are taking advantage of this material because it cheaper than the others mentioned. What is cheap?
A metal roof costs between $1 to $ 4 a square foot (some say it can get as high as $ 6/sq. ft.). Composites range between $ 3.40 to $ 4.50 a square foot; shakes are about $ 3.75/sq. foot; slate runs about $ 5 to $ 10/sq. ft.; and clay will run $ 4-10 a square foot.
Laminated asphalt shingles are available at $ 1/sq. foot or less. This material is a fiberglass asphalt product which is thicker and are made to look like tile, slate or wood.
Metal roofs captured approximately 30% of the year 2007 market. Fiberglass asphalt captured 44% of the market, however that was down 50% from the previous year.
Metal roofs are considered more fire proof than any other roof and it last twice as long as any of the other materials used for roofing. When treated with various coatings and finishes it is said to be a good heat reflector, thus keeping the house cooler and the cost of cooling the house down.
But when it rains you will hear it. I suspect the “rain noise” can be readily solved with added insulation to dampened the sound. And you do not want to walk on it when it is wet. Slipping and sliding can do damage to one’s body.
Source for this article: Homeowners on a Hot Metal Roof, by Nancy Keates: Wall Street Journal (2/22/08).
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3/4 Acre Lot, Montclair Drive, Santa Paula, CA. VIEWS! VIEWS! and more VIEWS!
February 22nd, 2008 Categories: Land, Lots, Ranches
For information regarding this lot contact John Duffner at 805-933-1385
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Property Tours-Beach Commercial Bldg., Oxnard, CA
February 22nd, 2008 Categories: Commercial
For information on this property contact John Duffner at 805-933-1385.
[realestateshows]256281[/realestateshows]
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Moon Eclispse
February 21st, 2008 Categories: In Case You Missed It---
This picture was taken in Santa Paula showing the moon eclipse. From what I have read there will not be another total eclipse until late 2010. What you see here is the beginning of the eclipse. Some of the clouds distort the picture but one can see mother natures unique heavenly activity.
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8 Years In A Row….Top Of The List……ID Theft!
February 14th, 2008 Categories: Buyer and Seller Knowledge Center
32% of Consumer Fraud Complaints Make Up ID Theft
The Federal Trade Commission in its report shows that ID theft is the top complaint for the eighth year in a row. Napa and Maderia, California and Greeley, CO are the highest areas reporting ID theft.
It can happen to YOU, at anytime … !
In the blink of an eye, unscrupulous identity thieves can gain access to your personal and/or financial information and ruin the good name you’ve worked your whole life to establish for yourself. And If you’re unprepared and don’t recognize that the crime has taken place, months or even years worth of damage can accumulate before being noticed and action can be taken to resolve the problem. The effects can be devastating, putting your and your family’s well-being in jeopardy.
No one is safe from Identity theft … and regardless of what steps you take to prevent it, there is no guarantee you will not become a victim.
The means by which identity thieves obtain an individuals personal or financial information are so numerous that it is impossible to guard against them all and the possibility of becoming a victim always exists for everyone. But precautions can be taken to reduce the chances and safeguards set in place to minimize the effects in the event you become a victim of identity theft.
Reduce the chances … DETER, DETECT, DEFEND!
Here’s some good news… the information contained in this report can reduce your chances of becoming a victim of identity theft … and minimize the effects if you ever do. By taking just a few minutes right now, you can learn how to DETER, DETECT, and DEFEND against identity theft! Read on to learn what you’ll need to do before and after the crime.
In the new Deter, Detect, Defend campaign, The Federal Trade Commission has broken the process of dealing with identity theft into 3 helpful phases, and outlined steps to be taken in each.
DETER – Deter identity thieves by safeguarding your information.
· Shred financial documents and paperwork with personal information-
All bills and account statements, credit card offers, and any other pieces of mail that contain your personal or financial information should be shredded and not just thrown in the trash.
· Protect your Social Security number -Don’t carry your Social Security card in your wallet or write your Social Security number on a check. Give it out only if absolutely necessary or ask to use another identifier.
· Don’t give out your personal information-Whether on the phone, through the mail, or over the Internet don’t reveal your personal information unless you know who you are dealing with. Check with the Better Business Bureau if you have questions about a company’s legitimacy.
· Never click on links sent in unsolicited emails-If it is a company you know and have an existing relationship with, type the web address you know directly into your web browser. Use firewalls, anti-spyware, and anti-virus software to protect your home computer. Keep them up-to-date to guard against the latest threats.
· Don’t use obvious passwords-Common and simple passwords like your date of birth, your mother’s maiden name, or the last four digits of your Social Security number are too easy for a thieve to guess.
· Keep your personal information in a secure place at home-This is especially important if you have roommates, employ outside help, or are having work done in your home.
DETECT – Detect suspicious activity by routinely monitoring your financial accounts and billing statements.
· Be alert to signs that require immediate attention
-
Bills that do not arrive as expected o Unexpected credit cards or account statements
-
Denials of credit for no apparent reason
-
Calls or letters about purchases you did not make
· Inspect:
o Your credit report. Credit reports contain information about you, including what accounts you have and your bill paying history.
o The law requires the major nationwide consumer reporting companies–Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion–to give you a free copy of your credit report once a year upon request.
Your financial statements.
Review financial accounts and billing statements regularly, looking for charges you did not make.
DEFEND – Defend against Identity Theft as soon as you suspect it.
· Place a “Fraud Alert” on your credit reports and review the reports carefully-
A Fraud Alert tells creditors to follow certain procedures before they open new accounts in your name or make changes to your existing accounts. The three nationwide consumer reporting companies have toll-free numbers for placing an initial 90-day fraud alert; a call to one company is sufficient. Placing a fraud alert entitles you to free copies of your credit reports. Look for inquiries from companies you haven’t contacted, accounts you didn’t open, and debts on your accounts you don’t recognize and can’t explain.
· Close accounts- Close any accounts that have been tampered with or established fraudulently. Call the security or fraud departments of each company where an account was opened or changed without your consent. Follow up with copies of supporting documents. Use the ID Theft Affidavit at www.ftc.gov/idtheft to support your written statement. Ask for verification that the disputed account has been closed and the fraudulent debts discharged. Keep copies of documents and records of conversations about the theft.
· File a police report- File a report with law enforcement officials to help you with creditors who may want proof of the crime.
· Report the theft to the Federal Trade Commission- Your report helps law enforcement officials across the country in their investigations.
o Online: www.ftc.gov/idtheft
o By phone: 1-877-ID-THEFT (438-4338) o By mail: Identity Theft Clearinghouse, Federal Trade Commission, Washington, DC 20580
More Ways to Protect Yourself.
Sorting through credit card offers and other unwanted mail may be frustrating and seem like a waste of time, but think twice about just throwing them in the trash … unless you don’t mind increasing your chances of becoming a victim of identity theft. “Dumpster Diving” is a technique where identity thieves rummage through your trash in search of bills, credit card offers, and other pieces of mail that contain your information.It is just one of the numerous ways your personal and/or financial information can be stolen. You won’t even know it’s happened until one day you get a notice from a collection agency for unpaid bills in your name, with a company you’ve never heard of, in a city and state you’ve probably never been in!
Eliminate the Source.
The best way to deal with a problem is eliminate the source. So if you didn’t have those credit card offers and other unwanted junk-mail coming in, you wouldn’t have to worry about how to handle them. Guess what? With a quick phone call, letter or online request … you can save time and energy, as well as give yourself additional protection against identity theft.Here is some information that will help you eliminate the source of the problem.
1. Credit Card Offers
The credit bureaus offer a toll-free number that enables you to get out of having card offers mailed to you for either five years…or permanently. Just phone 1-888-5-OPTOUT (567-8688). You will be prompted to provide some personal information, including your home telephone number, name, address, and social security number. All information provided is confidential and is used only to process your request. And if over time you get lonely for some junk mail and decide that you want to receive the card offers again, simply phone the same number and you will be added back on the list.
2. Junk Mail
The Direct Marketing Association has a Mail Preference Service that allows you to reduce the amount of commercial advertising mail that you receive at home for five years. There are several ways to have your name added to the “do not mail” list. The quickest and most efficient way is to hit this link: Do Not Mail Website.
From the website, you can enter the required information, print the letter, and mail the letter to the address listed below. Or for a nominal fee of $5, enter the required information and hit the “register online” button.
Don’t want to enter your information online? No problem, just mail a letter that includes a brief paragraph requesting to be excluded from the marketing lists, your name – be sure to list all name variations including, Jr, Sr, etc. – current and previous address, and signature to:
Direct Marketing Association
Mail Preference Service
PO Box 643
Carmel, NY 10512
Important note: You will not stop receiving mailings from organizations that are not registered with the Association’s mail preference service, but at least this measure will greatly reduce the amount of advertising mail you receive.
3. Email:
The Direct Marketing Association also has an Email Preference Service that allows you to get out of receiving unsolicited commercial email for five years.
Visit Do Not Email Website. Enter up to three email addresses and a confirmation will be sent to each email acknowledging the request. Replying to each email confirmation within 30 days is required by DMA, or the email address will be deleted and the request will not be processed. Unfortunately, this measure will not eliminate most “spam” email, but again, will at least help to reduce the amount of junk email you may be receiving.
4. Phone:
It’s so well worth the time – if you haven’t done it yet, do yourself and your family a favor, and get on the National Do Not Call Registry. Wouldn’t it be great that knowing every time the phone rings…it’s actually someone calling for you or your family, not someone out to sell you something?
Protect yourself from annoying telemarketers and phone solicitations by putting your home number on the Do Not Call list via this link:
Removing your information from the above lists will not only save you a lot of time and frustration, it will also help protect you against identity theft.
Where to find more information:
http://www.consumer.gov/idtheft/index.html http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov
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Ouch! That Hurts My Credit.
February 11th, 2008 Categories: Buyer and Seller Knowledge Center
Transactions that can hurt a credit score are:
- Transferring credit card balances (people do this to get a lower interest rate).
- Settling debts. Ask your tax preparer about this. Congress gave those who had to give up their home a forgiveness clause. Settling credit card debt for less than owed will reduce FICO score.
- Parking tickets, library fines can decreases FICO score.
- Closing credit cards never helps one’s FICO score.
Basic article source: Weird stuff that hurts your credit and Credit Scoring Myths by Liz Weston.
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Hope Versus Action…
February 9th, 2008 Categories: Buyer and Seller Knowledge Center
Sitting are a number of surfers waiting for the “BIG” wave to ride. But one was more aggressive and found action with a smaller wave. The same can be said for real estate. May buyers and sellers keep waiting for the BIG perfect wave to ride but there are the few that take the necessary action now and succeed.
For your real estate needs give me a call at 805-933-1385. Let’s get on the right wave.
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